Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[mitchnick]

Sept. QBO -23.24

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

 

I would think it hangs around the basement and starts to rise by JAN

[WxUSAF]

Sept. QBO -23.24

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

 

I would think it hangs around the basement and starts to rise by JAN

Remind me what we want the QBO to do.

[mitchnick]

Remind me what we want the QBO to do.

many mets have mentioned the E or negative QBO helps with blocking

beyond that, I'm not answering any more questions if I'm not getting paid!

[WxUSAF]

many mets have mentioned the E or negative QBO helps with blocking

beyond that, I'm not answering any more questions if I'm not getting paid!

That's right.  Thanks.

[CAPE]

Sept. QBO -23.24

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

 

I would think it hangs around the basement and starts to rise by JAN

That is a pretty darn negative value, considering where we were this time last year. Wouldn't the ideal scenario when values are very negative in the fall as they are now, be for it to rise towards neutral(ending up slightly negative or slightly positive) for the winter months? We kept waiting for it to drop last winter and it never budged from being significantly positive, and no real blocking ever set up. I guess being super negative at this stage is a good thing.

[AlaskaETC]

Agreed, hope it starts rising by late November.

[Bob Chill]

Even with data only going back to 79, I don't really see a glaring connection. 09/10 and 10/11 we're opposites and they both had big blocking. 85/86 was loaded with blocking but the qbo was +. I don't know jack about the qbo but the numerical comparisons don't stand out to me.

[NEchestercountydude]

I think more importantly, we need the sun to begin it's decline in the next 4-6 weeks. Its been pretty active the last month which is okay, but active sun and - QBO are pretty meh in general.

[NEchestercountydude]

Even with data only going back to 79, I don't really see a glaring connection. 09/10 and 10/11 we're opposites and they both had big blocking. 85/86 was loaded with blocking but the qbo was +. I don't know jack about the qbo but the numerical comparisons don't stand out to me.

 

Those three winters were all around Solar mins, big reason for the blocking probably.

[WxUSAF]

Even with data only going back to 79, I don't really see a glaring connection. 09/10 and 10/11 we're opposites and they both had big blocking. 85/86 was loaded with blocking but the qbo was +. I don't know jack about the qbo but the numerical comparisons don't stand out to me.

It would be really easy for someone to run a correlation between fall QBO and DJF AO or NAO.  Could even run the correlation on rate of change in the QBO. 

[Bob Chill]

It would be really easy for someone to run a correlation between fall QBO and DJF AO or NAO. Could even run the correlation on rate of change in the QBO.

I'll just continue to be completely unversed in the topic. I don't want to add anything to my worry list. I'll stick to the basics.

[StudentOfClimatology]

It would be really easy for someone to run a correlation between fall QBO and DJF AO or NAO. Could even run the correlation on rate of change in the QBO.

Not as easy as it sounds.

QBO effect varies, depending on solar/ENSO. Definitely prefer the -QBO w/ Nino, only problem is an active Sun which can mess with SSW propahation/EP flux.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Agreed, hope it starts rising by late November.

Depends on the height you're referring to...30mb or 50mb? Definitely want 50mb negative.

[Bob Chill]

I think more importantly, we need the sun to begin it's decline in the next 4-6 weeks. Its been pretty active the last month which is okay, but active sun and - QBO are pretty meh in general.

79-80 had a -qbo and a huge blocking event in jan/feb. It was also basically at the peak of a solar cycle. I'm not saying there is no significance to the sun/qbo. At the surface it doesn't appear to be a reliable indicator.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Anyway, I'm thinking about tossing November. Starting to look like a 2009 reincarnation w/ the +NAO/GOA vortex a distinct possibility, based on progression of tropical forcing(s). Cold looks western-based, especially if the NPAC trough ends up a bit farther west.

[StudentOfClimatology]

79-80 had a -qbo and a huge blocking event in jan/feb. It was also basically at the peak of a solar cycle. I'm not saying there is no significance to the sun/qbo. At the surface it doesn't appear to be a reliable indicator.

Yeah can be chaotic. A lot of the early-mid 1990s years are also null-&-void in relation, due to Pinatubo fooking with the stratosphere/Brewer Dobson Circulation.

Can already see the BDC responding to the antecedent tropical forcings & -QBO. Question is, will we be able to utilize it or will the active Sun mess with things? If we were in Solar min right now we'd be golden for a good winter.

[GaWx]

79-80 had a -qbo and a huge blocking event in jan/feb. It was also basically at the peak of a solar cycle. I'm not saying there is no significance to the sun/qbo. At the surface it doesn't appear to be a reliable indicator.

Bob,

Interesting. Fwiw, I agree completely with you about the relative unreliability of the QBO for winter forecasting vs. other factors for my area of the country. I'm not saying it can't be useful to some forecasters in some other parts of the country or even in the SE with more knowledge about it. However, whenever I've done statistical based analyses using the QBO, I could never find a strong enough correlation with it in at least as regards SE US winter. IMO, ENSO, AO, NAO, and PDO are much more useful for at least the SE US IMO. From the posts from people who look at the QBO a good more than me, it seems to be somewhat useful when used in combo with the sun and perhaps other things. However, the problem with that as I see it is that it is hard to get much in the way of sample size once you have to look at it in various combinations with other things. More power to them if it can be helpful. Also, a good thing that makes it tempting to use is the relative predictability of the index, itself.

[NEchestercountydude]

79-80 had a -qbo and a huge blocking event in jan/feb. It was also basically at the peak of a solar cycle. I'm not saying there is no significance to the sun/qbo. At the surface it doesn't appear to be a reliable indicator.

 Yeah, maybe I'm putting a little to much into the sun. Enso obviously plays a big part too. Looking back at 79-80, that winter could be a darn good analog for this upcoming one. Qbo, solar and enso all look pretty similar. I know a lot more goes into analogs than that but.

[CAPE]

Anyway, I'm thinking about tossing November. Starting to look like a 2009 reincarnation w/ the +NAO/GOA vortex a distinct possibility, based on progression of tropical forcing(s). Cold looks western-based, especially if the NPAC trough ends up a bit farther west.

Dont we all always toss November? Let Denver have its snowstorms. I'll take the nice mild weather. Cold in the east in November just means chilly with rain around here.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Bob,

Interesting. Fwiw, I agree completely with you about the relative unreliability of the QBO for winter forecasting vs. other factors for my area of the country. I'm not saying it can't be useful to some forecasters in some other parts of the country or even the SE with more knowledge about it. However, whenever I've done statistical based analyses using the QBO, I could never find a strong enough correlation with it in at least as regards SE US winter. IMO, ENSO, AO, NAO, and PDO are much more useful for at least the SE US IMO. From the posts from people who look at the QBO a good more than me, it seems to be somewhat useful when used in combo with the sun and perhaps other things. More power to them if it can be helpful. Also, a good thing that makes it tempting to use is the relative predictability of the index, itself.

Problem is the QBO "effect" differs depending on solar and ENSO. When used correctly it's probably the most powerful tool a LR forecaster can utilize.

The newly developed MQI index (represents QBO progression through the domain), also takes into account the differences in the effect based on the stage/maturity of a given phase. Trying to correlate a winter pattern solely based on whether the QBO is +/- will usually fail.

[Bob Chill]

Dont we all always toss November? Let Denver have its snowstorms. I'll take the nice mild weather. Cold in the east in November just means chilly with rain around here.

The only thing I care about is the pattern in the npac through the month and a watchful eye on the atl as we approach December. I don't like torching over tday weekend so I watch that pretty close. After tday its on though. Warmth will be hated like rain on Christmas.

[GaWx]

Problem is the QBO "effect" differs depending on solar and ENSO. When used correctly it's probably the most powerful tool a LR forecaster can utilize.

The newly developed MQI index (represents QBO progression through the domain), also takes into account the differences in the effect based on the stage/maturity of a given phase. Trying to correlate a winter pattern solely based on whether the QBO is +/- will usually fail.

I hear you. However, doesn't having to look at QBO in combo with both solar and ENSO cut way down on sample size potential, especially considering the numerous combinations such as, say, strength of Niño (or Nina or neutral) with strength of -QBO or +QBO and strength of solar?

[StudentOfClimatology]

I hear you. However, doesn't having to look at QBO in combo with both solar and ENSO cut way down on sample size potential, especially considering the numerous combinations such as, say, strength of Niño (or Nina or neutral) with strength of -QBO or +QBO and strength of solar?

Oh yes. The last two years have been particularly unique, as well, so it has kind of hard to gauge probabilities lately.

[millwx]

 At the surface it doesn't appear to be a reliable indicator.

 

Smart man, Bob.  I'm not going to get into a big long QBO discussion.  All I'll tell you is I've got 15 parameters in my seasonal model... QBO is not one of them.  Wake me when the discussion turns to something more influential.  (BTW, due to the complexities of the system, I absolute will NOT bash the QBO proponents and say without question that it's irrelevant.  But the signal is pretty much nil on its own.  It needs to be coupled with X, Y and Z... "if it's negative, but only with such-and-such ENSO phase, oh, and only at this point in the solar cycle, etc, etc, etc"... meaning we have a grand total sample size in these breakdowns of about two or three historical reference points.  It's impossible to actually make any claim that the QBO is doing anything.  On the other hand, it is oscillations just like QBO that are known to have influences.  So, it's impossible - and would be disingenuous - for me to claim that it's NOT doing anything.  All I'm saying is there is ZERO evidence in the data, at least anything with a substantial sample size... so, there are merely a few anecdotal bits and pieces.)  Wake me when the topic changes.      

[Bob Chill]

Smart man, Bob. I'm not going to get into a big long QBO discussion. All I'll tell you is I've got 15 parameters in my seasonal model... QBO is not one of them. Wake me when the discussion turns to something more influential. (BTW, due to the complexities of the system, I absolute will NOT bash the QBO proponents and say without question that it's irrelevant. But the signal is pretty much nil on its own. It needs to be coupled with X, Y and Z... "if it's negative, but only with such-and-such ENSO phase, oh, and only at this point in the solar cycle, etc, etc, etc"... meaning we have a grand total sample size in these breakdowns of about two or three historical reference points. It's impossible to actually make any claim that the QBO is doing anything. On the other hand, it is oscillations just like QBO that are known to have influences. So, it's impossible - and would be disingenuous - for me to claim that it's NOT doing anything. All I'm saying is there is ZERO evidence in the data, at least anything with a substantial sample size... so, there are merely a few anecdotal bits and pieces.) Wake me when the topic changes.

I just stick to the basics. They work fine for a weenie. I never got into much SSW discussion either nor care to learn much about the topic. However, SSW disco on the board is a great indicator of the MA being in big trouble. LOL. Needing one to break the back of a nasty PV in the arctic circle usually never ends well.

[StudentOfClimatology]

A lot of people don't properly apply the QBO when making statistical predictions. The QBO is more than just an oscillation...it's a process that when understood, explains a lot of variability in the climate system including that of SSTs, the Hadley/Walker Cells, NAM/SAM, etc.

There's some very intriguing literature on this topic that I suggest anyone who's interested should read.

Here's a great paper indicating a QBO influence on ENSO itself: http://www.researchgate.net/profile/John_Knaff/publication/236076700_INFLUENCE_OF_THE_STRATOSPHERIC_QBO_ON_ENSO_VARIABILITY/links/004635271696b35d99000000

Another paper highlighting modulation of the boreal-winter PV: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008JD011445/full

[CAPE]

Interesting discussion on the QBO. But it is one index that I can ever seem to wrap my head around. Its kinda nebulous. Really positive values SEEM to indicate suppression of north Atlantic blocking. We apparently saw that last winter. Now the QBO is extremely negative. So what does it mean? Where do we go from here....warming in the stratosphere? Effect on the PV? Could it end up contributing to a Pacific Fire hose? The QBO sucked (consistently positive last winter) and we still pretty much had wall to wall cold, because other parameters (PDO, EPO, PNA) overwhelmed. I tend to agree with Millwx- on its own the QBO is not a really great tool.

[mitchnick]

I'm just fascinated with the letter Q, sooo... 

[mitchnick]

If I'm reading these maps correctly, I think were about to see a spike in ENSO temps as has been advertised by the CFS2 and other models.

This is the 5 day average of winds and sea surface Anomalies (bottom map) as of 10/2. Look at the warmth just west of the dateline (180) AND look at the wind direction over those warmer waters (westerly), which is what raises the temps in the NINO (for those who may not already know.)

 

 

Now look at this map. 5 Day winds, again putting attention toward the dateline. See how the colors in the Anomaly map (bottom) are bright yellow to the first level of yellow/brown. Yellow signifies westerly winds, with yellow/brown stronger winds. I recall around this time in 09' that area was into the brown/orange color and instead of level 3 as this Anomaly map shows, it was 8 if memory serves. Anyway, we obviously aren't getting to the 09' NINO, but this is the first time this map has been solidly yellow this late summer/fall, and I've been watching it waiting for the yellows to show up. In short, reality is now suggesting the spike in fall temps in ENSO 3.4 "looks" to be starting. To which I say "...Good luck. We're all counting on you."

 

Here's the link to the CFS2 map and the spike I mentioned.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

[mitchnick]

note, I made an edit to the above post because I erroneously stated the winds were easterly when, of course, I meant westerly