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Winter 2014-2015 Thread

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

I'm not even sure that matters a whole bunch. I went back and looked at 10" storms at DCA and ran the NAO graphs the week before and after. It's a total mix of results. Out of 14 storms on the list I had, only 6 had a NAO reading below -1 in the 3 day centered window and 5 were either neutral or positive. The remaining 3 were negative but less than -1sd. 

 

Looking back at a couple storms last year, when you compare the height charts to the mathematical index it gets blurry. 

 

Here's the 1/2 storm. The numerical index was -.277. You would think the nao wasn't all that favorable looking at numerical data but the chart shows a favorable hl setup.

 

attachicon.gif1.2.14 storm.GIF

 

Here's the 1/21 storm. Numerical index was .137

 

attachicon.gif1.21.14 storm.GIF

 

 

And the 3/3 storm. Numerical index was .649. It's easy to see why it's positive but it's a sneaky little blocking setup that timed well. 

 

attachicon.gif3.3.14 storm.GIF

 

 

 

Looking at the big storm data, no big storms on the books with a nao of +1 or more. But enough in the -.5 to +.5 window to not live and die by the state of the nao. I know you know this stuff. I'm making a general post about not getting overly hung up on the numerical NAO data. 

 

There are some notable storms with an nao reading most wouldn't expect. The storm day of all these graphs is #7. 

 

12/16/73

 

attachicon.gif12.16.73.GIF

 

 

2/6/67

 

 

attachicon.gif2.6.67.GIF

 

2/15/58

 

attachicon.gif2.15.58.GIF

 

2/10/83 (I don't think many think a -nao in the -.6 -.8 range is noteworthy) 

 

attachicon.gif2.10.83.GIF

 

 

2/15/03 (this is a bit of a head scratcher. I've never really looked hard at this storm. interesting)

 

attachicon.gif2.15.03.GIF

 

 

2/18/79

 

attachicon.gif2.18.79.GIF

except for the 58' storm, I remember all of them  :oldman:

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

I'm not even sure that matters a whole bunch. I went back and looked at 10" storms at DCA and ran the NAO graphs the week before and after. It's a total mix of results. Out of 14 storms on the list I had, only 6 had a NAO reading below -1 in the 3 day centered window and 5 were either neutral or positive. The remaining 3 were negative but less than -1sd. 

 

Looking back at a couple storms last year, when you compare the height charts to the mathematical index it gets blurry. 

 

Here's the 1/2 storm. The numerical index was -.277. You would think the nao wasn't all that favorable looking at numerical data but the chart shows a favorable hl setup.

 

attachicon.gif1.2.14 storm.GIF

 

Here's the 1/21 storm. Numerical index was .137

 

attachicon.gif1.21.14 storm.GIF

 

 

And the 3/3 storm. Numerical index was .649. It's easy to see why it's positive but it's a sneaky little blocking setup that timed well. 

 

attachicon.gif3.3.14 storm.GIF

 

 

 

Looking at the big storm data, no big storms on the books with a nao of +1 or more. But enough in the -.5 to +.5 window to not live and die by the state of the nao. I know you know this stuff. I'm making a general post about not getting overly hung up on the numerical NAO data. 

 

There are some notable storms with an nao reading most wouldn't expect. The storm day of all these graphs is #7. 

 

12/16/73

 

attachicon.gif12.16.73.GIF

 

 

2/6/67

 

 

attachicon.gif2.6.67.GIF

 

2/15/58

 

attachicon.gif2.15.58.GIF

 

2/10/83 (I don't think many think a -nao in the -.6 -.8 range is noteworthy) 

 

attachicon.gif2.10.83.GIF

 

 

2/15/03 (this is a bit of a head scratcher. I've never really looked hard at this storm. interesting)

 

attachicon.gif2.15.03.GIF

 

 

2/18/79

 

attachicon.gif2.18.79.GIF

 

nice post, but the setup matters more to me than the daily numerics...just using your example, the composite shows a very favorable atlantic..and some or most of those were Archimbault events...so you need the NAO one way or the other...very very hard to get a big storm with a bad atlantic...

 

 

post-66-0-50043500-1412016675_thumb.gif

 

as far as PD2, it was a unique storm, but the setup was fine...the huge 50-50 was the main player in the Atlantic, but an Iceland/Ireland block was adequate

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

fwiw, the CFS had been showing the nino flatlining in late september before building to +1 range by November.... I'd doubt we do that well but I'm sticking with a weak nino. Interesting point that you have made when you say if it isn't mod or stronger it isn't an important factor.nino34Mon.gif

Rumors of its demise are premature.  Subsurface Ts look pretty good.

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Not sure why the blasted trades won't let up. 

 

This is just an opinion, but I think to get the atmosphere and the SSTs to couple after such a long period of negative/neutral ENSOs, we need something strong to overcome this atmospheric inertia.  I don't remember a time where the weather has been so....boring.  Tropics, Severe season, heat waves.  Big yawns since winter ended.  A strong nino would do a lot to stir the pot.  Sadly, I don't think we'll get it.  As much as I hate to agree with JB, the best analog seems to be 1976.  Probably could throw 1963  and 2002 in there too.      

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

except for the 58' storm, I remember all of them  :oldman:

 

Damn Mitch, your not far away from forgetting all of them. LOLOL

nice post, but the setup matters more to me than the daily numerics...just using your example, the composite shows a very favorable atlantic..and some or most of those were Archimbault events...so you need the NAO one way or the other...very very hard to get a big storm with a bad atlantic...

 

 

 

Absolutely, you brought the point home even better. Pattern recognition is a much better tool than numerical indices when analyzing a potential threat. We can have a cooperative atlantic (even with very short windows) in an otherwise "crappy" numerical environment. Well, unless the nao is +2-3. Then we're fooked. lol. 

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

I'm honestly not worried about it. I stopped caring after a mod become quite unlikely. Time to focus on other stuff. 

 

This area of the npac has already cooled quite a bit in the last 10 days or so. Still looks warm (especially east) because the starting point was so high before the patter flipped. Really strong signal for this area to continue cooling for the next 10+ days. Warm anomalies likely to stay in place in the far eastern section (which is fine of course because the basin could resemble a classic +pdo sig if everything breaks right). 

 

 

ETA: I meant the area has cooled quite a bit in the last 30 days. 

 

SST anomaly changes over the past 7 days

 

aWOhnea.gif

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PrinceFrederickWx

PrinceFrederickWx

Posted
Posted

What was significant about those months?

 

I wasn't born yet, but I looked them up just out of curiosity- not snowy at all (at least for BWI) but very cold- 7th coldest Oct., 2nd coldest Nov., 17th coldest Dec... though I'd include Jan. 1977 in the mix too as it was the coldest month ever. That may be the coldest 4 month stretch ever at BWI but I'd have to look into that more.

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted

I wasn't born yet, but I looked them up just out of curiosity- not snowy at all (at least for BWI) but very cold- 7th coldest Oct., 2nd coldest Nov., 17th coldest Dec... though I'd include Jan. 1977 in the mix too as it was the coldest month ever. That may be the coldest 4 month stretch ever at BWI but I'd have to look into that more.

 

Thanks, I was born then, but have no recollection.  Winter '77 is legendary, but that's the first I'd heard about the prior autumn. Sounds like a great fall!

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

Thanks, I was born then, but have no recollection.  Winter '77 is legendary, but that's the first I'd heard about the prior autumn. Sounds like a great fall!

I was in the 8th grade..........it got cold early and often that fall.  Funny thing about January, it was warm the first couple days......I mean really warm (in SWVA), then the bottom fell out.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

I was in the 8th grade..........it got cold early and often that fall.  Funny thing about January, it was warm the first couple days......I mean really warm (in SWVA), then the bottom fell out.

Only thing I remember from that fall was waiting outside in line starting at 11:30 PM in late October for the Rocky Horror Picture Show scheduled for midnight and freezing my azz off wearing only a Levi's jean jacket (quite stylish for the time!)   lol

it was very cold and dry in these parts that winter, though NE did really well with snow

oh yeah, I did get to walk out 50'+ onto the frozen Chesapeake Bay at Sandy Point State Park in JAN, which was a once in a lifetime experience

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Sparky

Sparky

Posted
Posted

What was significant about those months?

Well below normal temps with several early freezes, I think around Oct. 18 for BWI, fall foliage changed quicker than I had ever seen before.  October was often wet, stormy, big low pressure systems yanking down these early cold air masses.  Novemeber was just all out cold with a significant, wet storm near Thanksgiving that pulled down some of the earliest cold/teens/20s in my memory for that time of year.  December was cold too, not as big a departure as November, but all of these cold months led into the incredible January 1977 which took cold to a new level (-10 to -12 departures in MD).  I think the very cool fall made it possible for the freeze up of the Chesapeake Bay all the way to Smith's Island.  I purposely didn't mention Jan 77 in my original post because I thought everyone was already aware of that infamous month.  It was the lead-in I wanted to highlight.

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

Since it looks like we'll at least have enso temps above normal, probably a weak nino but there still is a chance of warm neutral, I thought I'd repost this showing the stats for enso positive years, it gives the 3 month average, the dca seasonal snowfall,  the average AO index during D-F and the number of 5.5" or greater snowstorms.  I think but am not sure that the bracketed 5.5" or greater events might be KU events.

 

post-70-0-78429200-1412090806_thumb.gif

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DTWXRISK

DTWXRISK

Posted
Posted

  this is  why   some   weenies  and hobbyists get into  trouble with the indices.  They  rush to to look at CPC indices which see  the negatIve NAO....   the  -AO...   a  50/50 Low ... the  +PNA  then  see  an inland track or ..sometimes... nothing  happens at all.

 
 

Absolutely, you brought the point home even better. Pattern recognition is a much better tool than numerical indices when analyzing a potential threat. We can have a cooperative atlantic (even with very short windows) in an otherwise "crappy" numerical environment. Well, unless the nao is +2-3. Then we're fooked. lol. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Since it looks like we'll at least have enso temps above normal, probably a weak nino but there still is a chance of warm neutral, I thought I'd repost this showing the stats for enso positive years, it gives the 3 month average, the dca seasonal snowfall,  the average AO index during D-F and the number of 5.5" or greater snowstorms.  I think but am not sure that the bracketed 5.5" or greater events might be KU events.

 

attachicon.gifENSO_SNOW_AO_big.gif

 

 

Nice data, Wes. I missed this post or I would have responded sooner. I'm starting to come around a little on weak/warm neutral stuff now. I'm more open to the idea of not worrying about slicing and dicing the past stats and taking a more forward looking approach. Even years like 03-04/04-05 and even a period of 06-07 "could" have been better. Considering the snow hell we went through in 2011-13, any of those years would have been acceptable. 

 

The years in the mix that stunk did so for different reasons than enso imo. There's also a lot of missed potential in some of the ok years. I may be in the minority, but the only thing I want to avoid this year is a disaster. Of course it would be a lot of fun to grab a back to back +climo year but I'll stress on that topic once we get into prime season. At the very least, nothing is really pointing towards favoring a disaster attm. It's really all you can ask for. 

 

I'm indifferent to getting a seriously cold winter. If it happens fine but if it happens and it's dry then notso fine. lol

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Nice data, Wes. I missed this post or I would have responded sooner. I'm starting to come around a little on weak/warm neutral stuff now. I'm more open to the idea of not worrying about slicing and dicing the past stats and taking a more forward looking approach. Even years like 03-04/04-05 and even a period of 06-07 "could" have been better. Considering the snow hell we went through in 2011-13, any of those years would have been acceptable. 

 

The years in the mix that stunk did so for different reasons than enso imo. There's also a lot of missed potential in some of the ok years. I may be in the minority, but the only thing I want to avoid this year is a disaster. Of course it would be a lot of fun to grab a back to back +climo year but I'll stress on that topic once we get into prime season. At the very least, nothing is really pointing towards favoring a disaster attm. It's really all you can ask for. 

 

I'm indifferent to getting a seriously cold winter. If it happens fine but if it happens and it's dry then notso fine. lol

I find seriously cold winters with BN snowfall just a bitter reminder of why I hate the MA for snow.

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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the stories / memories about the fall of '76.  Wish I was old enough to remember it.  Wish I could remember it.

I was in 3rd grade and not yet a weather weenie, that would happen in the great winter of '78. But what I remember from the winter of '77 were school closings not because of snow but the extreme cold.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

don't know what it will mean, but the Atlantic has had some serious cooling throughout over the past month or so

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif

 

 

edit: Hudson Bay in Canada is dropping too

I think 09 fall was the last time it got that cool so early

I was noticing that a week ago or so.  Got even more cooling since.  You can see that Eduoard caused some of that, but that only explains a little of it I imagine.  Pacific is taking on a much more classic looking +PDO.  

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