mitchnick Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 I'm not even sure that matters a whole bunch. I went back and looked at 10" storms at DCA and ran the NAO graphs the week before and after. It's a total mix of results. Out of 14 storms on the list I had, only 6 had a NAO reading below -1 in the 3 day centered window and 5 were either neutral or positive. The remaining 3 were negative but less than -1sd. Looking back at a couple storms last year, when you compare the height charts to the mathematical index it gets blurry. Here's the 1/2 storm. The numerical index was -.277. You would think the nao wasn't all that favorable looking at numerical data but the chart shows a favorable hl setup. 1.2.14 storm.GIF Here's the 1/21 storm. Numerical index was .137 1.21.14 storm.GIF And the 3/3 storm. Numerical index was .649. It's easy to see why it's positive but it's a sneaky little blocking setup that timed well. 3.3.14 storm.GIF Looking at the big storm data, no big storms on the books with a nao of +1 or more. But enough in the -.5 to +.5 window to not live and die by the state of the nao. I know you know this stuff. I'm making a general post about not getting overly hung up on the numerical NAO data. There are some notable storms with an nao reading most wouldn't expect. The storm day of all these graphs is #7. 12/16/73 12.16.73.GIF 2/6/67 2.6.67.GIF 2/15/58 2.15.58.GIF 2/10/83 (I don't think many think a -nao in the -.6 -.8 range is noteworthy) 2.10.83.GIF 2/15/03 (this is a bit of a head scratcher. I've never really looked hard at this storm. interesting) 2.15.03.GIF 2/18/79 2.18.79.GIF except for the 58' storm, I remember all of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 I'm not even sure that matters a whole bunch. I went back and looked at 10" storms at DCA and ran the NAO graphs the week before and after. It's a total mix of results. Out of 14 storms on the list I had, only 6 had a NAO reading below -1 in the 3 day centered window and 5 were either neutral or positive. The remaining 3 were negative but less than -1sd. Looking back at a couple storms last year, when you compare the height charts to the mathematical index it gets blurry. Here's the 1/2 storm. The numerical index was -.277. You would think the nao wasn't all that favorable looking at numerical data but the chart shows a favorable hl setup. 1.2.14 storm.GIF Here's the 1/21 storm. Numerical index was .137 1.21.14 storm.GIF And the 3/3 storm. Numerical index was .649. It's easy to see why it's positive but it's a sneaky little blocking setup that timed well. 3.3.14 storm.GIF Looking at the big storm data, no big storms on the books with a nao of +1 or more. But enough in the -.5 to +.5 window to not live and die by the state of the nao. I know you know this stuff. I'm making a general post about not getting overly hung up on the numerical NAO data. There are some notable storms with an nao reading most wouldn't expect. The storm day of all these graphs is #7. 12/16/73 12.16.73.GIF 2/6/67 2.6.67.GIF 2/15/58 2.15.58.GIF 2/10/83 (I don't think many think a -nao in the -.6 -.8 range is noteworthy) 2.10.83.GIF 2/15/03 (this is a bit of a head scratcher. I've never really looked hard at this storm. interesting) 2.15.03.GIF 2/18/79 2.18.79.GIF nice post, but the setup matters more to me than the daily numerics...just using your example, the composite shows a very favorable atlantic..and some or most of those were Archimbault events...so you need the NAO one way or the other...very very hard to get a big storm with a bad atlantic... as far as PD2, it was a unique storm, but the setup was fine...the huge 50-50 was the main player in the Atlantic, but an Iceland/Ireland block was adequate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Nino looking worse. fwiw, the CFS had been showing the nino flatlining in late september before building to +1 range by November.... I'd doubt we do that well but I'm sticking with a weak nino. Interesting point that you have made when you say if it isn't mod or stronger it isn't an important factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 fwiw, the CFS had been showing the nino flatlining in late september before building to +1 range by November.... I'd doubt we do that well but I'm sticking with a weak nino. Interesting point that you have made when you say if it isn't mod or stronger it isn't an important factor. Rumors of its demise are premature. Subsurface Ts look pretty good. Not sure why the blasted trades won't let up. This is just an opinion, but I think to get the atmosphere and the SSTs to couple after such a long period of negative/neutral ENSOs, we need something strong to overcome this atmospheric inertia. I don't remember a time where the weather has been so....boring. Tropics, Severe season, heat waves. Big yawns since winter ended. A strong nino would do a lot to stir the pot. Sadly, I don't think we'll get it. As much as I hate to agree with JB, the best analog seems to be 1976. Probably could throw 1963 and 2002 in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 except for the 58' storm, I remember all of them Damn Mitch, your not far away from forgetting all of them. LOLOL nice post, but the setup matters more to me than the daily numerics...just using your example, the composite shows a very favorable atlantic..and some or most of those were Archimbault events...so you need the NAO one way or the other...very very hard to get a big storm with a bad atlantic... Absolutely, you brought the point home even better. Pattern recognition is a much better tool than numerical indices when analyzing a potential threat. We can have a cooperative atlantic (even with very short windows) in an otherwise "crappy" numerical environment. Well, unless the nao is +2-3. Then we're fooked. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 except for the 58' storm, I remember all of them I remember the 58 storms...I was in the third grade... ...It was a very good year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 I wonder if I will ever see an Oct., Nov., and Dec. like 1976 again in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 I'm honestly not worried about it. I stopped caring after a mod become quite unlikely. Time to focus on other stuff. This area of the npac has already cooled quite a bit in the last 10 days or so. Still looks warm (especially east) because the starting point was so high before the patter flipped. Really strong signal for this area to continue cooling for the next 10+ days. Warm anomalies likely to stay in place in the far eastern section (which is fine of course because the basin could resemble a classic +pdo sig if everything breaks right). ETA: I meant the area has cooled quite a bit in the last 30 days. SST anomaly changes over the past 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 I wonder if I will ever see an Oct., Nov., and Dec. like 1976 again in my lifetime. What was significant about those months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 What was significant about those months? I wasn't born yet, but I looked them up just out of curiosity- not snowy at all (at least for BWI) but very cold- 7th coldest Oct., 2nd coldest Nov., 17th coldest Dec... though I'd include Jan. 1977 in the mix too as it was the coldest month ever. That may be the coldest 4 month stretch ever at BWI but I'd have to look into that more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 I wasn't born yet, but I looked them up just out of curiosity- not snowy at all (at least for BWI) but very cold- 7th coldest Oct., 2nd coldest Nov., 17th coldest Dec... though I'd include Jan. 1977 in the mix too as it was the coldest month ever. That may be the coldest 4 month stretch ever at BWI but I'd have to look into that more. Thanks, I was born then, but have no recollection. Winter '77 is legendary, but that's the first I'd heard about the prior autumn. Sounds like a great fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Thanks, I was born then, but have no recollection. Winter '77 is legendary, but that's the first I'd heard about the prior autumn. Sounds like a great fall! I was in the 8th grade..........it got cold early and often that fall. Funny thing about January, it was warm the first couple days......I mean really warm (in SWVA), then the bottom fell out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 I was in the 8th grade..........it got cold early and often that fall. Funny thing about January, it was warm the first couple days......I mean really warm (in SWVA), then the bottom fell out. Only thing I remember from that fall was waiting outside in line starting at 11:30 PM in late October for the Rocky Horror Picture Show scheduled for midnight and freezing my azz off wearing only a Levi's jean jacket (quite stylish for the time!) lol it was very cold and dry in these parts that winter, though NE did really well with snow oh yeah, I did get to walk out 50'+ onto the frozen Chesapeake Bay at Sandy Point State Park in JAN, which was a once in a lifetime experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 What was significant about those months? Well below normal temps with several early freezes, I think around Oct. 18 for BWI, fall foliage changed quicker than I had ever seen before. October was often wet, stormy, big low pressure systems yanking down these early cold air masses. Novemeber was just all out cold with a significant, wet storm near Thanksgiving that pulled down some of the earliest cold/teens/20s in my memory for that time of year. December was cold too, not as big a departure as November, but all of these cold months led into the incredible January 1977 which took cold to a new level (-10 to -12 departures in MD). I think the very cool fall made it possible for the freeze up of the Chesapeake Bay all the way to Smith's Island. I purposely didn't mention Jan 77 in my original post because I thought everyone was already aware of that infamous month. It was the lead-in I wanted to highlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Since it looks like we'll at least have enso temps above normal, probably a weak nino but there still is a chance of warm neutral, I thought I'd repost this showing the stats for enso positive years, it gives the 3 month average, the dca seasonal snowfall, the average AO index during D-F and the number of 5.5" or greater snowstorms. I think but am not sure that the bracketed 5.5" or greater events might be KU events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 this is why some weenies and hobbyists get into trouble with the indices. They rush to to look at CPC indices which see the negatIve NAO.... the -AO... a 50/50 Low ... the +PNA then see an inland track or ..sometimes... nothing happens at all. Absolutely, you brought the point home even better. Pattern recognition is a much better tool than numerical indices when analyzing a potential threat. We can have a cooperative atlantic (even with very short windows) in an otherwise "crappy" numerical environment. Well, unless the nao is +2-3. Then we're fooked. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Thanks for the stories / memories about the fall of '76. Wish I was old enough to remember it. Wish I could remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Thanks for the stories / memories about the fall of '76. Wish I was old enough to remember it. Wish I could remember it. careful, with you in 8th grade in 76', you're only 5 years younger than me the shiat starts hitting the fan health-wise between 50-55, so watch out! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I think the ultimate month for snow AND cold is February 1899. The stats for that arctic outbreak are just mind-blowing. If we had something like that nowadays this country would panic! And my head would explode from weenie overload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Since it looks like we'll at least have enso temps above normal, probably a weak nino but there still is a chance of warm neutral, I thought I'd repost this showing the stats for enso positive years, it gives the 3 month average, the dca seasonal snowfall, the average AO index during D-F and the number of 5.5" or greater snowstorms. I think but am not sure that the bracketed 5.5" or greater events might be KU events. ENSO_SNOW_AO_big.gif Nice data, Wes. I missed this post or I would have responded sooner. I'm starting to come around a little on weak/warm neutral stuff now. I'm more open to the idea of not worrying about slicing and dicing the past stats and taking a more forward looking approach. Even years like 03-04/04-05 and even a period of 06-07 "could" have been better. Considering the snow hell we went through in 2011-13, any of those years would have been acceptable. The years in the mix that stunk did so for different reasons than enso imo. There's also a lot of missed potential in some of the ok years. I may be in the minority, but the only thing I want to avoid this year is a disaster. Of course it would be a lot of fun to grab a back to back +climo year but I'll stress on that topic once we get into prime season. At the very least, nothing is really pointing towards favoring a disaster attm. It's really all you can ask for. I'm indifferent to getting a seriously cold winter. If it happens fine but if it happens and it's dry then notso fine. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Nice data, Wes. I missed this post or I would have responded sooner. I'm starting to come around a little on weak/warm neutral stuff now. I'm more open to the idea of not worrying about slicing and dicing the past stats and taking a more forward looking approach. Even years like 03-04/04-05 and even a period of 06-07 "could" have been better. Considering the snow hell we went through in 2011-13, any of those years would have been acceptable. The years in the mix that stunk did so for different reasons than enso imo. There's also a lot of missed potential in some of the ok years. I may be in the minority, but the only thing I want to avoid this year is a disaster. Of course it would be a lot of fun to grab a back to back +climo year but I'll stress on that topic once we get into prime season. At the very least, nothing is really pointing towards favoring a disaster attm. It's really all you can ask for. I'm indifferent to getting a seriously cold winter. If it happens fine but if it happens and it's dry then notso fine. lol I find seriously cold winters with BN snowfall just a bitter reminder of why I hate the MA for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 don't know what it will mean, but the Atlantic has had some serious cooling throughout over the past month or so http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif edit: Hudson Bay in Canada is dropping too I think 09 fall was the last time it got that cool so early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Thanks for the stories / memories about the fall of '76. Wish I was old enough to remember it. Wish I could remember it. I was in 3rd grade and not yet a weather weenie, that would happen in the great winter of '78. But what I remember from the winter of '77 were school closings not because of snow but the extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 careful, with you in 8th grade in 76', you're only 5 years younger than me the shiat starts hitting the fan health-wise between 50-55, so watch out! lol ?? I was 6 in the fall of '76. Don't make me older than I already am. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 don't know what it will mean, but the Atlantic has had some serious cooling throughout over the past month or so http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif edit: Hudson Bay in Canada is dropping too I think 09 fall was the last time it got that cool so early I was noticing that a week ago or so. Got even more cooling since. You can see that Eduoard caused some of that, but that only explains a little of it I imagine. Pacific is taking on a much more classic looking +PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 ?? I was 6 in the fall of '76. Don't make me older than I already am. Lol. Post #923 above EastCoast NPZ was talking about the winter of 76/77 and you said you were in 8th grade I guess you were talking about something else then.....I ain't crazy yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Post #923 above EastCoast NPZ was talking about the winter of 76/77 and you said you were in 8th grade I guess you were talking about something else then.....I ain't crazy yet! It was WinterWxLuvr who was in 8th grade lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 It was WinterWxLuvr who was in 8th grade lol. ooops....clicked on the wrong poster lol blind, not crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 It was WinterWxLuvr who was in 8th grade lol. That was me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 This is pretty funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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