hosj III Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 I totally agree about October nao behavior. - or + for the month isn't something to fret over. It's probably not meaningful either way irt winter. It's a volatile index anyways with a relatively small domain space. One of the more difficult to predict at just a couple weeks let alone 2 months. I prob view the monthly index a little different than most. For example, if a monthly mean comes out near neutral the month will be viewed in the future as not having an effective nao. But what if the month had periods of +1.5 and -1.5 that just cancelled each other out mathematically? I'd take that all day long over a month with a big persistent - reading. Don't our best storms come when a -NAO regime flips? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Don't our best storms come when a -NAO regime flips? Yes, but not always of course. I'm going to put together daily graphs for the 10" storm list tomorrow and see what stands out. The average for the storm days is -.5 or so but there are a fair number of + readings in there. Dropping from + to - may be just as good as the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Yes, but not always of course. I'm going to put together daily graphs for the 10" storm list tomorrow and see what stands out. The average for the storm days is -.5 or so but there are a fair number of + readings in there. Dropping from + to - may be just as good as the other way around. I like to imagine that a storm coming during an NAO flip from + to - gives us a better shot at sustained cold afterwards. I for one am not looking for a repeat of dripfest 2014 next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 I would like to reiterate my belief on October's tho. Overall there is a weak correlation but more often than not it would seem warm Octobers are more favorable for Winter whereas cold Octobers are hit or miss. Haha, dude you were saying the exact opposite a few weeks ago. What made you reconsider your stance? Also, that's pure bunk. There's really no statistically significant correlation whatsoever. October 2011 is a good example with the Halloween snowstorm. The following winter was a crapshoot overall. October 2011 was a blowtorch for most of the U.S., including us here in the M.A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 October 2011 was a blowtorch for most of the U.S., including us here in the M.A. Not really what I would call a blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Correct, my memory failed me. Still was pretty torchy over N.A w/zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Good stuff guys. I enjoyed the forecast as well. Was just telling someone 2 days ago who was asking me what the winter was going to be like this year to research 1978-79 and then mix a little 2009-10 into it. I'm almost done containing my excitement for what could be an amazing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Good stuff guys. I enjoyed the forecast as well. Was just telling someone 2 days ago who was asking me what the winter was going to be like this year to research 1978-79 and then mix a little 2009-10 into it. I'm almost done containing my excitement for what could be an amazing winter. I'd lean more 1979-1980 and mix a little 02-03 into it, but no one really knows at this point. We really have a great shot at back-to-back above climo winters but I'm not really seeing all the signals of a truely epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 How about 04-05 with an Aleutian low to start, a Jan thaw, and some blocking to finish? Dec was close to having a good pattern. It was closer to a decent year than the snow totals showed. We couldn't capitalize the windows when they came later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 How about 04-05 with an Aleutian low to start, a Jan thaw, and some blocking to finish? Dec was close to having a good pattern. It was closer to a decent year than the snow totals showed. We couldn't capitalize the windows when they came later. I don't think 2004-05 is a good QBO analog. The -QBO in tandem with the Aleutian Low/Niño tend to bring us big winters so long as an active Sun doesn't eat up too much O^3 I think we can narrow the timing of the SSW to a window between December 15th and January 5th, at this point. I'm nervous about December, but however it turns out, I really like the idea of a solid -AO January. If I wasn't such a coward I'd be going with a -5 departure, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 29, 2014 Author Share Posted September 29, 2014 im ready to hit the cancel button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 im ready to hit the cancel button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 it wouldn't be fall if JI didn't hit the "winter cancel" button a few times just be glad he's not in control of the buttons at NORAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Nino looking worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Nino looking worse. 3.4 is neutral right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Nino looking worse. officially, it is down from last week Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 17SEP2014 21.0 0.7 25.2 0.4 27.2 0.5 29.4 0.8 24SEP2014 21.2 0.8 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.4 29.3 0.6 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 I think the trade winds made things a bit complicated. Hopefully it picks up again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 3.4 is neutral right now I'm honestly not worried about it. I stopped caring after a mod become quite unlikely. Time to focus on other stuff. This area of the npac has already cooled quite a bit in the last 10 days or so. Still looks warm (especially east) because the starting point was so high before the patter flipped. Really strong signal for this area to continue cooling for the next 10+ days. Warm anomalies likely to stay in place in the far eastern section (which is fine of course because the basin could resemble a classic +pdo sig if everything breaks right). ETA: I meant the area has cooled quite a bit in the last 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Nino looking worse. Per today's 0Z Euro fwiw, none of the next 10 days would have a solid -SOI although it looks like we may get a small -SOI tomorrow and possibly over the next three or so days. After that, this run suggests some +SOI's. Bottom line: the persistent solid -SOI period of August and most of September has ended for at least the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 This is Sept 1st & today animation. That's a lot of real estate for general cooling and the pattern will likely continue that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 I'm honestly not worried about it. I stopped caring after a mod become quite unlikely. Time to focus on other stuff. This area of the npac has already cooled quite a bit in the last 10 days or so. Still looks warm (especially east) because the starting point was so high before the patter flipped. Really strong signal for this area to continue cooling for the next 10+ days. Warm anomalies likely to stay in place in the far eastern section (which is fine of course because the basic could resemble a classic +pdo sig if everything breaks right). npac.JPG ETA: I meant the area has cooled quite a bit in the last 30 days. The PDO will oscillate..It is going in the right direction, but it could reverse again...But it's fine with me...I think one thing we can be confident about is it will not be sharply negative.....for almost 2 years now, the PDO has been weak in both directions..and it should stay that way...if nino develops the push will be positive anyway...As long as there isn't a monster warm pool east of the dateline, I am ok with it.... Look at December 1963 for example, neg PDO, but it is a faux negative because the warm anomalies are shoved toward Japan, and down at 30N...the core of the PDO region is cold/neutral.....I like where the cold anomalies are currently OH WHAT A NIGHT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 The regularly-spaced cool anomalies along the equator: are those oceanic equatorial Rossby waves or Kelvin waves or something else? If those are propagating waves, they are really just perturbations on top of a larger trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 The PDO will oscillate..It is going in the right direction, but it could reverse again...But it's fine with me...I think one thing we can be confident about is it will not be sharply negative.....for almost 2 years now, the PDO has been weak in both directions..and it should stay that way...if nino develops the push will be positive anyway...As long as there isn't a monster warm pool east of the dateline, I am ok with it.... Look at December 1963 for example, neg PDO, but it is a faux negative because the warm anomalies are shoved toward Japan, and down at 30N...the core of the PDO region is cold/neutral.....I like where the cold anomalies are currently 1963dec.gif OH WHAT A NIGHT! dec63.png Thanks. Now that song is stuck in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 The PDO will oscillate..It is going in the right direction, but it could reverse again...But it's fine with me...I think one thing we can be confident about is it will not be sharply negative.....for almost 2 years now, the PDO has been weak in both directions..and it should stay that way...if nino develops the push will be positive anyway...As long as there isn't a monster warm pool east of the dateline, I am ok with it.... Look at December 1963 for example, neg PDO, but it is a faux negative because the warm anomalies are shoved toward Japan, and down at 30N...the core of the PDO region is cold/neutral.....I like where the cold anomalies are currently 1963dec.gif OH WHAT A NIGHT! dec63.png Good points and agreed about going in the right direction. One of the interesting things is that most of the npac basin isn't really divided with big warm and/or cool anoms anymore. It's returning to a more balanced state. It's becoming a clean slate of sorts irt giving clues about what direction we are going down the line. October predominant weather patterns should do a nice job showing us how early winter may look in the basin and we can assess again in a month. Right now the predominant pattern on the means for the first half of the month looks really good. Whether it will become persistent or just break down is a tough question. At the very least, we should build a nice cushion in the PDO region over the next 2 weeks if things go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 It looks good, but It appears the core of the cold would once again spill just a bit too far west. Height anomalies are rather high over Greenland suggesting a -NAO. I read some earlier discussion about how a -NAO in October is bad. It has a warmer version of 2009-2010 vibe, wet-snow city. When is the El Nino going to take off? Color me skeptical. Getting a 1899 or 2013 redux out of that 850mb pattern is unlikely. I'm just trying to make sure people's expectations are leveled off so they don't become disappointed. We should know by November, snowcover has to work harder than usual. Unless you want to get your tongue stuck to a PV this winter under radiant sunshine, then you want the core of the cold to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Good points and agreed about going in the right direction. One of the interesting things is that most of the npac basin isn't really divided with big warm and/or cool anoms anymore. It's returning to a more balanced state. It's becoming a clean slate of sorts irt giving clues about what direction we are going down the line. October predominant weather patterns should do a nice job showing us how early winter may look in the basin and we can assess again in a month. Right now the predominant pattern on the means for the first half of the month looks really good. Whether it will become persistent or just break down is a tough question. At the very least, we should build a nice cushion in the PDO region over the next 2 weeks if things go right. euro looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Last nights Euro Ensemble actually had more ridging in Alaska and the NE Pacific around Oct 6th through the 13th (end of run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 we don't really get good -NAO's anymore...2009-10, 2010-11 excepted...pretty much since the late 80s, most winters have sucked wrt to blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 pdo - neutral, NAO - neutral, ENSO - neutral.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 we don't really get good -NAO's anymore...2009-10, 2010-11 excepted...pretty much since the late 80s, most winters have sucked wrt to blocking I'm not even sure that matters a whole bunch. I went back and looked at 10" storms at DCA and ran the NAO graphs the week before and after. It's a total mix of results. Out of 14 storms on the list I had, only 6 had a NAO reading below -1 in the 3 day centered window and 5 were either neutral or positive. The remaining 3 were negative but less than -1sd. Looking back at a couple storms last year, when you compare the height charts to the mathematical index it gets blurry. Here's the 1/2 storm. The numerical index was -.277. You would think the nao wasn't all that favorable looking at numerical data but the chart shows a favorable hl setup. Here's the 1/21 storm. Numerical index was .137 And the 3/3 storm. Numerical index was .649. It's easy to see why it's positive but it's a sneaky little blocking setup that timed well. Looking at the big storm data, no big storms on the books with a nao of +1 or more. But enough in the -.5 to +.5 window to not live and die by the state of the nao. I know you know this stuff. I'm making a general post about not getting overly hung up on the numerical NAO data. There are some notable storms with an nao reading most wouldn't expect. The storm day of all these graphs is #7. 12/16/73 2/6/67 2/15/58 2/10/83 (I don't think many think a -nao in the -.6 -.8 range is noteworthy) 2/15/03 (this is a bit of a head scratcher. I've never really looked hard at this storm. interesting) 2/18/79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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