Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[HM]

Gun to head....what's your hunch?

My simpleton guess is we peak early and fade. N PAC will have some sort of unusual transition early winter because the warm pool caused by the anchored -EPO this winter/spring will take time to go cold and allow a more standard Nino cool pool / persistent LP in the same area. It's a long ways out and the -epo effects could be largely erased by late summer / early fall. But if they aren't it makes things interesting.

I'd also hedge towards a more -nao based circ overall. Some loose analogs like 64-65, 97-98 (this year sucked for reasons other than blocking. The -nao didn't have a cold source to work with), and even 57-58 as a very loose enso analog.

We haven't had any nao help since Dec-Jan of 10-11. Things tend to even out over time. Just like the PV residing over Eurasia for years. It came back with a vengeance this year. The weenie goggles I tend to wear for long long range stuff would like to think that the PV will spend another year or 2 over here. Matt and I have kicked around ideas that this winter may in fact be the beginning of a string much like the 60's held for us. Time will tell.

 

1. Do you mean you think the El Niño will not be a classic event with a peak in late autumn? I am pretty much anticipating, at this point, a classic basin-wide event with typical time scales of a moderate to strong peak.

 

2. Generally, El Niño does favor increased blocking, by itself, with a biased negative AO in the 20 or so years since 1950. So, it's a good play, especially with the -QBO. But you can still get a hostile EPO, like 72-73.

 

3. We may not have received our usual -NAO help since 2010-11, but we have had episodes of -NAO since then. They just have coincided with either a strong +EPO, Dec 2012, or miraculously a +AO. Heck we just went through another rare +AO/-NAO combo, albeit briefly, in the first week of April 2014.

 

My hunch is that the sun won't be anywhere near minimum levels but will certainly drop-off in bimonthly or trimonthly swings. If we can get that to time right with autumn-early winter, we're set.

[Bob Chill]

1. Do you mean you think the El Niño will not be a classic event with a peak in late autumn? I am pretty much anticipating, at this point, a classic basin-wide event with typical time scales of a moderate to strong peak.

 

 

I'm thinking the highest tri-monthly will be son/ond vs other years where it happens ndj/djf. It's really just a guess though. We're kinda off to the races already. It will be interesting if we do pull off mod+/strong nino while coming off near Nina conditions to close out winter. Not much precedence there except for 97/98 & 09/10 using 1950+ data. 67/68 into 68/69 has a similar look but didn't get above 1.1. 97/98 is the clear winner for rate of increase. 

 

ENSO has become a mover and a shaker now. We cooled through winter and now a quick snap back and forecast to warm sharply. Pretty cool stuff. 

[Deck Pic]

I want it as strong as possible...

[HM]

I'm thinking the highest tri-monthly will be son/ond vs other years where it happens ndj/djf. It's really just a guess though. We're kinda off to the races already. It will be interesting if we do pull off mod+/strong nino while coming off near Nina conditions to close out winter. Not much precedence there except for 97/98 & 09/10 using 1950+ data. 67/68 into 68/69 has a similar look but didn't get above 1.1. 97/98 is the clear winner for rate of increase. 

 

ENSO has become a mover and a shaker now. We cooled through winter and now a quick snap back and forecast to warm sharply. Pretty cool stuff. 

 

I don't know man. I wouldn't call this winter "near Nina," especially the second half. IMO, it was biased Nina in autumn and progressed to a biased Nino (west based) like state Feb. Pretty incredible shift in the Walker Cell this year.  

 

I wonder what Matt thinks of 1884-85 for an analog.

[Bob Chill]

I don't know man. I wouldn't call this winter "near Nina," especially the second half. IMO, it was biased Nina in autumn and progressed to a biased Nino (west based) like state Feb. Pretty incredible shift in the Walker Cell this year.  

 

I wonder what Matt thinks of 1884-85 for an analog.

 

I was only referring to 3.4 temps. Definitely not a nina circ pattern. Not at all. 

 

JFM bottomed out at -.7 after a -.6 DJF. Pretty unusual year. It's an analog of its own. With the 20/20 rearview in place the dominant fall -epo and warm pool in the n pac was one of the primary drivers of the season as a whole. Big lesson for me. 

[Deck Pic]

I don't know man. I wouldn't call this winter "near Nina," especially the second half. IMO, it was biased Nina in autumn and progressed to a biased Nino (west based) like state Feb. Pretty incredible shift in the Walker Cell this year.  

 

I wonder what Matt thinks of 1884-85 for an analog.

 

for this past winter or upcoming winter?...definitely some similarities to this past winter....I think it was a weaker enso event...though I know the baselines were different.....monster Feb/March here.....cold and snowy....kind of a meh Dec/Jan.....definite nino-esque progression, but doesn't really look like a Nino...you like it for this upcoming winter?

 

[HM]

We don't know much about the period; but, it is estimated to have been a general warm ENSO period from 1884 through 1886. This was also a time when we reach solar max and started to decline. We are best matched with that period's solar cycle. Didn't a stronger niño get going 1885-86? Well anyway, I thought it would be a fun "old" analog period to look at, based on the sun.

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png (check out how close we are to cycle 12)

 

Cycle 12's progression: http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl12.html

[Deck Pic]

We don't know much about the period; but, it is estimated to have been a general warm ENSO period from 1884 through 1886. This was also a time when we reach solar max and started to decline. We are best matched with that period's solar cycle. Didn't a stronger niño get going 1885-86? Well anyway, I thought it would be a fun "old" analog period to look at, based on the sun.

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png (check out how close we are to cycle 12)

 

Cycle 12's progression: http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl12.html

 

very cool...I think it was probably a weaker event.....very cold Jan - Mar and snowy too...would love to see a winter like that...

 

I think the 1st mega-nino we know about was 1877-78...we don't have snow records that far back here, but it was an 8" winter in NYC, so probably sucked here, .......and it was warm...but funny thing is I want to roll the dice with a strong event and see what happens...not this strong, but I really don't want a weaker event..serviceable here for sure but boring....I want an event of 57-58 strength and see what happens....see if we can get west based blocking and a cold air source...and gamble...I want an 18-36" mid atlantic event...a weak event will probably give me 10-15"+ on the season, but I will hate 40N by the end of the winter

 

[AvantHiatus]

Would seem to be a torchier version of 09-10. Without a west-based El Nino event and NAO blocking we would be utterly screwed. East-based strong el nino would be summer all-year around these days.

 

I am skeptical of the solar cycle decline having any significant impact on temperatures. I'm guessing most believe we can't have another 97-98 winter because the sun was peaking in the late 90's. We don't even require a strong el nino for torching, case in point winter 2011-2012.

[ORH_wxman]

very cool...I think it was probably a weaker event.....very cold Jan - Mar and snowy too...would love to see a winter like that...

 

I think the 1st mega-nino we know about was 1877-78...we don't have snow records that far back here, but it was an 8" winter in NYC, so probably sucked here, .......and it was warm...

 

 

Def sounds like a mega-torched Nino....

 

http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/winter_1877_1878.htm

 

 

 

And your reanalysis map matches that idea.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Would seem to be a torchier version of 09-10. Without a west-based El Nino event and NAO blocking we would be utterly screwed. East-based strong el nino would be summer all-year around these days.

I am skeptical of the solar cycle decline having any significant impact on temperatures. I'm guessing most believe we can't have another 97-98 winter because the sun was peaking in the late 90's. We don't even require a strong el nino for torching, case in point winter 2011-2012.

There is plenty of peer reviewed literature and data supporting effective solar forcing(s) on the NAM state, with the QBO and ENSO acting as a middle man of sorts. I'm probably going to write my doctoral thesis on this topic as it's very interesting yet loaded with hypotheticals.

[Fozz]

Back in 2009, when did it become really evident that a snowy winter was likely, and why were most outlooks in so much agreement about it? Was it mainly based on realizing that El Nino would stay west/center based?

[mitchnick]

Back in 2009, when did it become really evident that a snowy winter was likely, and why were most outlooks in so much agreement about it? Was it mainly based on realizing that El Nino would stay west/center based?

I recall people freaking over the idea of a mod/strong event in light of 72/73, 91/92 & 97/98

I'm not certain anyone in April 09' really had it being west-based pinned down

I know HM mentioned he though it would be a basin-wide event this year, but the CFS looks more central to west based (of course this is the SEPT-NOV average)

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif

and then there's the JAMSTEC and those people are going for an El Nino-Modoki

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

they mention it in  the "Notes" portion on this link in the February 18, 2014 update

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

[mitchnick]

updated today Aussie site

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[mitchnick]

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

[Deck Pic]

Back in 2009, when did it become really evident that a snowy winter was likely, and why were most outlooks in so much agreement about it? Was it mainly based on realizing that El Nino would stay west/center based?

 

-QBO, Solar min, nino = blocking.....and by the time outlooks came out in November, Nino was torching and a moderate event looked like a lock....09-10 was as close as you can get to a lock for a snowy winter in DC....Not to say I couldn't have been wrong, but it was the easiest outlook I have ever done.....

 

 

 

[HM]

I recall people freaking over the idea of a mod/strong event in light of 72/73, 91/92 & 97/98

I'm not certain anyone in April 09' really had it being west-based pinned down

I know HM mentioned he though it would be a basin-wide event this year, but the CFS looks more central to west based (of course this is the SEPT-NOV average)

 

You can still get a basin-wide event and have strong anomalies in the western regions. I have no idea yet what base the niño will be; but, I am strongly leaning towards a moderate-strong event.

 

Suspicions about 09-10's potential for big snow/cold grew well in-advance due to the anticipated solar and QBO state. Most people didn't have El Niño as their forecast until sometime in April-May of 09'. There were also plenty of "warmer northern-tier" temperature graphics for December which busted horribly. But most everyone nailed the -AO, though. While the consensus had these few mistakes, I must also say that plenty of people did predict the widespread December cold and knew of niño chances earlier.  

[mitchnick]

-QBO, Solar min, nino = blocking.....and by the time outlooks came out in November, Nino was torching and a moderate event looked like a lock....09-10 was as close as you can get to a lock for a snowy winter in DC....Not to say I couldn't have been wrong, but it was the easiest outlook I have ever done.....

 

yes.png

 

 

whoa.png

all you have to do is turn your head to the left while looking at that 12/09-2/10 anomaly map to see what happened that year (big azz smiley face!)

[mitchnick]

sunspot numbers for those who want to follow them

http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6

[HM]

Slightly off-topic: yesterday we mentioned the ineffective NAO that we have been dealing with lately. Attached are a couple of surface temperature anomaly maps for the CONUS and Europe. I took the top 20 most negative and most positive NAO days for DJFM (from CPC) and put them along side each other. Surprise, surprise...the NAO did in fact mean nothing for us, temperature-wise.

 

Top 20 +NAO range: 0.995 to +1.380

Top 20 -NAO range: -0.081 to -0.573

 

The strong positive bias this winter is mainly to blame along with the EPO being the most dominate index.

 

Between 1/20 and 3/29, we had 52 days in-a-row that came in positive in the CPC dataset. This was a mighty impressive +NAO winter! Just ask Europe how their winter was...yikes.

 

[mitchnick]

Slightly off-topic: yesterday we mentioned the ineffective NAO that we have been dealing with lately. Attached are a couple of surface temperature anomaly maps for the CONUS and Europe. I took the top 20 most negative and most positive NAO days for DJFM (from CPC) and put them along side each other. Surprise, surprise...the NAO did in fact mean nothing for us, temperature-wise.

 

Top 20 +NAO range: 0.995 to +1.380

Top 20 -NAO range: -0.081 to -0.573

 

The strong positive bias this winter is mainly to blame along with the EPO being the most dominate index.

 

Between 1/20 and 3/29, we had 52 days in-a-row that came in positive in the CPC dataset. This was a mighty impressive +NAO winter! Just ask Europe how their winter was...yikes.

 

NAO1314conustemp.JPG

NAO1314eurotemp.JPG

crazy stats

if it hasn't yet, it should soon sink in to all how lucky we (in the MA) were this winter

here's hoping for 2 in a row   

[Deck Pic]

crazy stats

if it hasn't yet, it should soon sink in to all how lucky we (in the MA) were this winter

here's hoping for 2 in a row   

 

talk about maximizing potential...we left nothing on the table except for 12/10, and looking back we were too overzealous

[HM]

crazy stats

if it hasn't yet, it should soon sink in to all how lucky we (in the MA) were this winter

 

Very true. With time, we'll learn how rare +NAO--> snowy Mid Atlantic winters really are; but for now, we can call them rare!

 

You will hear a lot of poor reasoning why this year ended up snowy and cold. The closest thing to the truth that I can tell you is that it was a whole year's worth of things in the making of long-term factors. The short-sightedness with humans and time scales will cloud reality in both the seasonal forecasts that were issued and again in their explanations.

[Bob Chill]

Very true. With time, we'll learn how rare +NAO--> snowy Mid Atlantic winters really are; but for now, we can call them rare!

 

You will hear a lot of poor reasoning why this year ended up snowy and cold. The closest thing to the truth that I can tell you is that it was a whole year's worth of things in the making of long-term factors. The short-sightedness with humans and time scales will cloud reality in both the seasonal forecasts that were issued and again in their explanations.

 

Wes had some great stats and scatter plot on the AO and how important that is for DC snow and there was a bit of a disconnect when the ao is negative that the NAO didn't need to be negative. 

 

It's pretty cool how well the periods of -ao lined up with our snows this year. Some exceptions of course but this graph really hits it home overall for our latitude:

 

 

We were all freaked out early season with the snow cover stuff pointing towards a dominant +AO was all the talk. It verified in Dec but busted terribly after that. 

 

The PAC and PV really impressed me this year. I wasn't here in 94 but there has been plenty of talk about the similarities. Luckily we ended up on the right side of the gradient quite a bit and also were in the crosshairs for the majority of EC storms from basically Jan 1 through the end of March. 

 

The lack of -nao and progressive flow prevented a traditional style coastal that hits from VA to Maine. But at least the entire coast from GA to ME did cash in. Just a great winter overall. I loved it. 

[HM]

The -AO being more associated with Mid Atlantic snowfall makes sense. I wouldn't want positive 1000 hPa heights over the Mid Latitudes (basically above normal temperatures) while my -NAO is going (meaning that the NAO isn't doing its job, like December 2013). These two forces have been opposing each another lately.

 

The AO for 2013-14 DJFM was distributed more fairly than the NAO.

 

Top 20 +AO days were all in December and March. The range: +2.139 to +4.303

Top 20 -AO days were mostly in Jan. Only 3 in Feb. The range: -1.205 to -2.605

 

Here are some rough images I quickly copied into paint of the -AO and +AO temperature anomalies for Europe, CONUS and NH. There are big differences for Siberia, eastern Europe and southern CONUS. Notice, however, that nothing changes much in Canada. The AO, by itself, won't offer an explanation for why the PV sat so close to us.

 

 

[Bob Chill]

The AO, by itself, won't offer an explanation for why the PV sat so close to us.

 

 

 

 

Not even just that it was so close to us but it lived in Canada. Even in 09-10 with a big -nao/-ao combo, the coldest anoms were over Russia. 

 

 

I started going back through the years and this is the first winter where the coldest anoms were centered in north america vs russia/europe since pre-2000. Some years like 06-07 sucked for everyone but even cold years in the east like 02-03 aren't impressive in the NH. Europe was much colder. 

 

It's nice to see it can still happen though. I've always wondered if the amo cycle and much smaller ice pack in the atlantic side of the arctic circle has something to do with it. Some sort of blocking hp in response to warmer temps in an area that used to be solidly covered in ice. It has to be something. North America has been on a huge losing streak for having the coldest anoms compared to russia/europe. Can't just be a coincidence. 

[blizzardof96]

The AO, by itself, won't offer an explanation for why the PV sat so close to us.

 

Regarding this point, the few factors that stick out for me are the flip to a slightly negative AMO as a result of a disrupted NAM state with an anomalous piece of the PV displaced towards baffin island/greenland. Major heat flux/u wind decline over the mid/lower strat only really started to  occur from ~Dec 15th onwards as a result of the heightened EP heat flux and wave 1/2 uptick. If this lower/mid strat PV displacement did really have an impact on the H5 pattern then the question is what drove this change. Maybe it could have been the strongly +QBO and nina cell feeding back with the N PAC warm pool. This coupled with the favourable background state(AN ozone) helped upwell stronger waves over the N PAC into the stratosphere. Would be curious to here your thoughts on this... im sure their are many factors at work here.

[mitchnick]

Not super....more like near perfect

[NinjaWarrior2]

Next year should be a boom or bust year. With a Moderate to Strong El Niño, it is hard to get 3 normal winter months. I am not worried what base the El Niño takes. Give us blocking and a +PNA and were in business.

[Amped]

Looks like a nuclear warm pool beneath the nino 1&2 regions.