Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[AvantHiatus]

I think most would take an 09-10 wet snow city again

I was already on the edge that winter so it probably means a rainy coast. During the Feb 5th event, the snow was like molten concrete. 21", pure insanity.

[RONALD B]

In 2010 the nao stayed neg thou the summer all the way into jan.  A neg nao in oct is bad is a bunch of bull. What happen too last year when the NAO stayed postive thou fall into winter ? the upper atmosphere is in favor for blocking is a good thing no matter when it happens bring it !

[StudentOfClimatology]

I think most would take an 09-10 wet snow city again

Nothing like a good paste job, at least in my book.

[mitchnick]

In 2010 the nao stayed neg thou the summer all the way into jan.  A neg nao in oct is bad is a bunch of bull. What happen too last year when the NAO stayed postive thou fall into winter ? the upper atmosphere is in favor for blocking is a good thing no matter when it happens bring it !

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[T. August]

It would be an ideal placement according to DT. Been a long time since i've seen 02-03 and 09-10 in the same analog set. I am concerned about dryness and don't think the recent coastals say anything about the upcoming winter.

 

Yeah, you don't want the cold to flood out into the mid-laditudes too early. A warm October may be a favorable signal in the long-haul. 

I know you don't like JB, but those are in his analog set too.

 

I was already on the edge that winter so it probably means a rainy coast. During the Feb 5th event, the snow was like molten concrete. 21", pure insanity.

I had no idea you got that much down there. What was your total for the season?

[RONALD B]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Yup nothing like good ole fact's .

[mitchnick]

I know you don't like JB, but those are in his analog set too.

 

I had no idea you got that much down there. What was your total for the season?

This is ACY for the 1st 11 days of 2/10

DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR================================================================================ 1  35  19  27  -5  38   0 0.00  0.0    4  8.6 20 310   M    M   0        26 320 2  36  14  25  -7  40   0 0.02  0.5    2  2.3 10 100   M    M   4 1      15  30 3  41  30  36   4  29   0 0.10  2.6    6  6.9 17 320   M    M   7 18     21 320 4  40  25  33   1  32   0 0.00  0.0    3  7.4 20 330   M    M   0        24 330 5  40  27  34   2  31   0 0.30  3.6    2  3.8 23  50   M    M   2 18     30  50 6  33  15  24  -8  41   0 1.60 14.6   14 19.8 38  70   M    M   8 128    47  50 7  32  10  21 -11  44   0 0.00  0.0   15 11.0 20 330   M    M   0        23 330 8  33  14  24  -8  41   0 0.00  0.0   14 11.1 21 290   M    M   0        25 290 9  42  18  30  -3  35   0 0.30  2.7   13  5.7 13 290   M    M   3 1      30 21010  37  31  34   1  31   0 0.90  4.4   12 21.4 30 320   M    M  10 126    41 33011  37  28  33   0  32   0    T  0.2   12 18.7 30 320   M    M   0 1      37 310

[hosj III]

I remember looking at some plots with regards to NAO in October. Turns out -NAO in October is good for New England and +NAO in October is good for us. 

[AvantHiatus]

Yup nothing like good ole fact's .

The -EPO of March 2014 was instrumental in the snowy pattern.

[mitchnick]

I remember looking at some plots with regards to NAO in October. Turns out -NAO in October is good for New England and +NAO in October is good for us. 

there are some -NAOs in OCT on that link I provided that were great years for us, including 10/02 and 10/09

[mitchnick]

The -NAO of March 2013 was instrumental in the snowy pattern.

I think you mean March 2014 b/c 3/13 was not snowy

[AvantHiatus]

Purple blobs ftw

 

[uncle W]

I'm not concerned about a dry fall...we had one last year...

[AvantHiatus]

I think you mean March 2014 b/c 3/13 was not snowy

Yeah, typo there. It was a top 3 snowiest March here and probably for many others.

[mitchnick]

I'm not concerned about a dry fall...we had one last year...

Unc, we had a big OCT rainstorm that dropped 5" over a few days, which gave us the AN map

[mitchnick]

Yeah, typo there. It was a top 3 snowiest March here and probably for many others.

but 3/14 did NOT have a -NAO, it had an average of 0.80

3/13 had a -NAO of -1.61

in short, the NAO state had nothing to do with MA snows in 3/14

[AvantHiatus]

but 3/14 did NOT have a -NAO, it had an average of 0.80

3/13 had a -NAO of -1.61

in short, the NAO state had nothing to do with MA snows in 3/14

Shadey stuff, what was the main contributor? Wow, the AO was also deeply positive....all -EPO?

[mitchnick]

Shadey stuff, what was the main contributor? Wow, the AO was also deeply positive....all -EPO?

that would be my vote

[hosj III]

Here are plots of winters following Septembers with an NAO of -1 or less: 

 

 

Octobers: 

 

If you look purely at the Atlantic it kinda debunks the idea that -NAO in fall makes a -NAO in winter less likely.

[Bob Chill]

Looking at the nao strictly from a numeric standpoint is bad practice anyways. Placement of the height anomalies is much more telling. Especially when inside - to + 1.

We had bootleg -nao's in placement last year that didn't show up well numerically. It forced the trough axis far enough east to keep vorts running below us. Track was too close for comfort most of the time but sneaky areas of ul ridging above the pv did seem to keep showing up at just the right times.

[DTWXRISK]

 IN MID OCTOBER ?  um    so what?  
oh I get it  ....  just like Last year when you were   banging the   drum for a  record warm winter   you jumped all over OCT  2013  warmth  to  argue   the winter  of 2013-14  was going to be  warm and snowless

Long-range 12z Euro 850mb Temperatures, not very impressive...

 

NH_TMP_850mb_240.png

 

[AvantHiatus]

Lol, DT. I never posted about October 2013 warmth last year, or at least I don't remember it. It's way early but shouldn't we be seeing the El Nino respond somewhat? Especially since there is a lag between forcing and effects. Every winter has a "winning" period, except for 2011-2012.

 

 

I would like to reiterate my belief on October's tho. Overall there is a weak correlation but more often than not it would seem warm Octobers are more favorable for Winter whereas cold Octobers are hit or miss. October 2011 is a good example with the Halloween snowstorm. The following winter was a crapshoot overall.

[hosj III]

Looking at the nao strictly from a numeric standpoint is bad practice anyways. Placement of the height anomalies is much more telling. Especially when inside - to + 1.

We had bootleg -nao's in placement last year that didn't show up well numerically. It forced the trough axis far enough east to keep vorts running below us. Track was too close for comfort most of the time but sneaky areas of ul ridging above the pv did seem to keep showing up at just the right times.

I wasn't suggesting that the October NAO index was all that important. I'm just saying it's certainly not a bad thing to have -NAO in October and somehow charting October NATL height anomalies would be too complicated for my purposes.

 

Anyway, all things being equal a nice fat west-based -NAO last winter certainly wouldn't have hurt. The fact that time after time the models depicted phased monsters a week plus out that devolved into sheared crap (that still managed to get us good snows) is evidence of that.

[DTWXRISK]

 no  just  ill- informed

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/no-el-ni%C3%B1o-yet-temperatures-tropical-atmosphere-are-already-warm
 

It looks good, but It appears the core of the cold would once again spill just a bit too far west. Height anomalies are rather high over Greenland suggesting a -NAO.

 

I read some earlier discussion about how a -NAO in October is bad. It has a warmer version of 2009-2010 vibe, wet-snow city. When is the El Nino going to take off? Color me skeptical.

 

Getting a 1899 or 2013 redux out of that 850mb pattern is unlikely. I'm just trying to make sure people's expectations are leveled off so they don't become disappointed. We should know by November, snowcover has to work harder than usual.

[mitchnick]

 no  just  ill- informed

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/no-el-ni%C3%B1o-yet-temperatures-tropical-atmosphere-are-already-warm

 

this is shaping up to be a fun winter regardless of the weather....lol 

[hosj III]

this is shaping up to be a fun winter regardless of the weather....lol 

Looking forward to more model mayhem and late nights spent waiting for the Euro.

[DTWXRISK]

  REALLY?    last   autumn was  was  some crank  posting  called the global   something or   other  ... and  he had the same  severe  gw  bias you  show.  So I assume   that you were the same  poster/ person . If Not ...my bad


with regard to the OCT NAO thing..    its crap. Sure the    OCT 2011  OCT   -NAO did not last.  But what     SANDY   and the severe monster  - NAO  in  the  second half of OCT   2012 ?  
and huge record   OCT snow in the  mountains  of   WVA   Western  MD  and western PA ?



 

Lol, DT. I never posted about October 2013 warmth last year, or at least I don't remember it. It's way early but shouldn't we be seeing the El Nino respond somewhat? Especially since there is a lag between forcing and effects. Every winter has a "winning" period, except for 2011-2012.

 

 

I would like to reiterate my belief on October's tho. Overall there is a weak correlation but more often than not it would seem warm Octobers are more favorable for Winter whereas cold Octobers are hit or miss. October 2011 is a good example with the Halloween snowstorm. The following winter was a crapshoot overall.

[Bob Chill]

I wasn't suggesting that the October NAO index was all that important. I'm just saying it's certainly not a bad thing to have -NAO in October and somehow charting October NATL height anomalies would be too complicated for my purposes.

Anyway, all things being equal a nice fat west-based -NAO last winter certainly wouldn't have hurt. The fact that time after time the models depicted phased monsters a week plus out that devolved into sheared crap (that still managed to get us good snows) is evidence of that.

I totally agree about October nao behavior. - or + for the month isn't something to fret over. It's probably not meaningful either way irt winter. It's a volatile index anyways with a relatively small domain space. One of the more difficult to predict at just a couple weeks let alone 2 months.

I prob view the monthly index a little different than most. For example, if a monthly mean comes out near neutral the month will be viewed in the future as not having an effective nao. But what if the month had periods of +1.5 and -1.5 that just cancelled each other out mathematically? I'd take that all day long over a month with a big persistent - reading.

[uncle W]

the mei has been in el nino territory for a while now...The oni is playing catch up...last reading was +0.858...Up a bit from the previous month...if the mei rises above 1.000 for the Dec/Jan period it would be similar to 1986, 1994, 2002, 2009...If it goes up a little by then the analogs would be 1977, 1979, 2006...If the index falls by Dec/Jan the analogs would be 1951, 1976, 2004...I'd like to see the mei rise by Dec/Jan...5 of 7 winters were good to great in DCA (in blue)...It's a small sample so take it for what it is...

[mitchnick]

the mei has been in el nino territory for a while now...The oni is playing catch up...last reading was +0.858...Up a bit from the previous month...if the mei rises above 1.000 for the Dec/Jan period it would be similar to 1986, 1994, 2002, 2009...If it goes up a little by then the analogs would be 1977, 1979, 2006...If the index falls by Dec/Jan the analogs would be 1951, 1976, 2004...I'd like to see the mei rise by Dec/Jan...5 of 7 winters were good to great in DCA (in blue)...It's a small sample so take it for what it is...

I think if we can reach a weak NINO of .7C or >, keep a -EPO hangover from last year, though it doesn't have to be as strong (as Ma' Nature likes to do sometimes with the different indices), and get at least "some" blocking thanks to the -QBO, we should do very well this year. And if the AO and/or the NAO cooperate some as well, we'll never get any sleep!