Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[GaWx]

I think it's a virtual lock we see a verified weak Nino given strong statistical support.

 

A -11 SOI August (or lower) has always preceded - at minimum - a weak El Nino event in the ensuing winter season. Of course there's much more to it than solely the SOI, but it is a good indicator of the pressure pattern in the tropical pacific and thus the progression of an ENSO event. I would be very shocked if this one dies off for a neutral ENSO winter.

 

Isotherm/zwyts,

 Here's how I'm analyzing the -10.1 August 2014 SOI as regards implications for the chance at El Nino:

 

I decided to analyze Augusts with a -9 or more negative SOI and see how many lead to El Nino:

 

Yes: 2006, 02, 1997, 94, 87, 82, 77, 76, 65, 53, 41, 49, 25, 23, 14, 11, 1899, and 96...total # = 18

No: 1993, 34, 1882, 81...total # = 4

 

18/22 = 82%. So, implication of a sub -9 SOI for August of 2014, when considered on its own, may mean there's about an 80% chance of a Nino for 2014-15. Anyway, that's the way I'm analyzing the August, 2014 SOI fwiw.

[mattie g]

Looks very interesting indeed. If we can get several Miller As/Bs, then bring it on. I would just hate to have only one or two "meh" storms that bring 8-12" with the rest of winter going dry. Just me though. If we can get that spread out across DJF, I'm gold.

Then again, if we only get one or two storms that bring 1996/2010 levels of snow, then I won't complain.

Miller Bs can go do one. I'd rather take my chances with a suppressed slider than a Miller B. Nothing but heartbreak and kicks in the nards with them.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Miller Bs can go do one. I'd rather take my chances with a suppressed slider than a Miller B. Nothing but heartbreak and kicks in the nards with them.

The February 10th, 2010 blizzard [miller-b] was the most amazing show of ferocity I've ever seen in a snowstorm. I know folks to the south were left out, but only the snow squalls of February 2007 beat it in terms of rates, IMBY.

I'll never forget that late evening squall back in 2/07...only time I can ever recall a visibility of absolute zero..

[mattie g]

The February 10th, 2010 blizzard [miller-b] was the most amazing show of ferocity I've ever seen in a snowstorm. I know folks to the south were left out, but only the snow squalls of February 2007 beat it in terms of rates, IMBY.

I'll never forget that late evening squall back in 2/07...only time I can ever recall a visibility of absolute zero..

 

I agree on February 10.  I got just about 10", but it was a really close call.  But I don't know of any other worthwhile storms that were Miller Bs around here.  I mean...I'm sure there were a few (my recollection of so-so storms isn't that great), but especially down here there's nothing much to speak of.  Northern MD is a different story, but even there it's dicey with a Miller B, even with the requisite blocking.

[Bob Chill]

Miller b's have a nasty habit of the primary driving further north than modeled and the subsequent secondary follows suit. My problen with miller b's is the inherent difficulty for models to get the transfer right and also our latitude works against us the vast majority of the time.

Feb 10th was a special b and showed we "can" do it. But it was erased by the boxing day debacle. That's more our speed.

Sometimes we can do ok on the front end before dryslot/transfer. But we usually end up below guidance. It's not like I can choose them so I'll take any chances. It's just smart weenieism to expect the worst with every B and be happy with any accums.

[mattie g]

Miller b's have a nasty habit of the primary driving further north than modeled and the subsequent secondary follows suit. My problen with miller b's is the inherent difficulty for models to get the transfer right and also our latitude works against us the vast majority of the time.

Feb 10th was a special b and showed we "can" do it. But it was erased by the boxing day debacle. That's more our speed.

Sometimes we can do ok on the front end before dryslot/transfer. But we usually end up below guidance. It's not like I can choose them so I'll take any chances. It's just smart weenieism to expect the worst with every B and be happy with any accums.

 

Completely agreed on the guidance part.  Any time we have models giving us decent snows with  Miller B, we need to assume that the models are misguided.  Like you said, everything tends to get shunted farther north, and we're just too far south and west to get in on the act by the time the lows develop.

 

I honestly hate Miller Bs.  I grew up in South Jersey, and we got some decent snows from them, but it's a different ballgame down here. I know our place in the order of things, but I can't stand begging for scraps when north of here gets pummeled.

[Bob Chill]

Completely agreed on the guidance part. Any time we have models giving us decent snows with Miller B, we need to assume that the models are misguided. Like you said, everything tends to get shunted farther north, and we're just too far south and west to get in on the act by the time the lows develop.

I honestly hate Miller Bs. I grew up in South Jersey, and we got some decent snows from them, but it's a different ballgame down here. I know our place in the order of things, but I can't stand begging for scraps when north of here gets pummeled.

When I first got into tracking models and knew barely enough to be extremely dangerous, miller b's busted my bubbles harder than anything else. The typical go to bed with high hopes and waking up to sun. lol

Other than miller A's, I'll take a vort pass through sva that pops a weak surface low or a tn valley over running event any day of the weak over a miller b.

[Eskimo Joe]

When I first got into tracking models and knew barely enough to be extremely dangerous, miller b's busted my bubbles harder than anything else. The typical go to bed with high hopes and waking up to sun. lol

Other than miller A's, I'll take a vort pass through sva that pops a weak surface low or a tn valley over running event any day of the weak over a miller b.

Couldn't agree more.  Also, those overrunning events can be a nice surprise, especially if it occurs on a weekend.  A 2" - 4" event that turns into 4" - 6" is a great Saturday/Sunday surprise.

[mitchnick]

When I first got into tracking models and knew barely enough to be extremely dangerous, miller b's busted my bubbles harder than anything else. The typical go to bed with high hopes and waking up to sun. lol

Other than miller A's, I'll take a vort pass through sva that pops a weak surface low or a tn valley over running event any day of the weak over a miller b.

12/30/00....snow debacle of my life

waking up to p/c skies and a NWS forecast of 2-4" was pure torture (of course, it was eventually changed, but the damage was done)

[T. August]

Couldn't agree more.  Also, those overrunning events can be a nice surprise, especially if it occurs on a weekend.  A 2" - 4" event that turns into 4" - 6" is a great Saturday/Sunday surprise.

December 8, 2013... I think that was my favorite event of last season. Forecast 1-2" turned into 6". Some of the best rates of the winter (save 2/13) with 2"/hr for an hour or two.

[mitchnick]

December 8, 2013... I think that was my favorite event of last season. Forecast 1-2" turned into 6". Some of the best rates of the winter (save 2/13) with 2"/hr for an hour or two.

the 2"+ I got that day wasn't bad, but the 5"+ they received <10 miles from mby made it a little hard to appreciate    lol

[T. August]

the 2"+ I got that day wasn't bad, but the 5"+ they received <10 miles from mby made it a little hard to appreciate    lol

I didn't realize the cutoff was that bad. It didn't matter in the end as rain moved in that night lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Miller b's have a nasty habit of the primary driving further north than modeled and the subsequent secondary follows suit. My problen with miller b's is the inherent difficulty for models to get the transfer right and also our latitude works against us the vast majority of the time.

Feb 10th was a special b and showed we "can" do it. But it was erased by the boxing day debacle. That's more our speed.

Sometimes we can do ok on the front end before dryslot/transfer. But we usually end up below guidance. It's not like I can choose them so I'll take any chances. It's just smart weenieism to expect the worst with every B and be happy with any accums.

 

Boxing Day was a weird Miller A that took a bizarre "wide turn"...it hammered Norfolk/E NC first after coming right out of the FLA panhandle and tracked almost over HSE...yet somehow didn't give any snow to DC. Kind of strange to get that just a few months after a Miller B hammered your area and screwed SNE.

 

 

More classic Miller Bs that you guys hate are storms like 2/8/13, 1/11-12/11, 1/22/05, 1/3/03, 1/30/00, etc.

[T. August]

Boxing Day was a weird Miller A that took a bizarre "wide turn"...it hammered Norfolk/E NC first after coming right out of the FLA panhandle and tracked almost over HSE...yet somehow didn't give any snow to DC. Kind of strange to get that just a few months after a Miller B hammered your area and screwed SNE.

 

 

More classic Miller Bs that you guys hate are storms like 2/8/13, 1/11-12/11, 1/22/05, 1/3/03, 1/30/00, etc.

Thanks.

[Bob Chill]

Boxing Day was a weird Miller A that took a bizarre "wide turn"...it hammered Norfolk/E NC first after coming right out of the FLA panhandle and tracked almost over HSE...yet somehow didn't give any snow to DC. Kind of strange to get that just a few months after a Miller B hammered your area and screwed SNE.

 

 

More classic Miller Bs that you guys hate are storms like 2/8/13, 1/11-12/11, 1/22/05, 1/3/03, 1/30/00, etc.

 

True, boxing day wasn't a miller B. I forgot how we got screwed so I just brushed up on Kocin's assessment @ WPC. The energy diving down from the midwest and weak front running low pressure that gave areas south of us snow fizzled before anything got here and then the wide turn of the FL panhandle low finished the agony. lol. 

 

 

For whatever reason, whenever there is some sort of process between 2 low pressures or vorts in the flow we seem to have a knack for falling in between more often than not. Boxing day was unique and it was a mistake for me to call it a typical classic b screwjob. However, you did a great job bringing up some awful memories of other classics. LOL

[mattie g]

I didn't realize the cutoff was that bad. It didn't matter in the end as rain moved in that night lol.

 

1.25" followed by sleet and freezing rain.  Not happy.

 

[mitchnick]

True, boxing day wasn't a miller B. I forgot how we got screwed so I just brushed up on Kocin's assessment @ WPC. The energy diving down from the midwest and weak front running low pressure that gave areas south of us snow fizzled before anything got here and then the wide turn of the FL panhandle low finished the agony. lol. 

kocin.JPG

 

 

For whatever reason, whenever there is some sort of process between 2 low pressures or vorts in the flow we seem to have a knack for falling in between more often than not. Boxing day was unique and it was a mistake for me to call it a typical classic b screwjob. However, you did a great job bringing up some awful memories of other classics. LOL

payback for Ian going into their snow thread and suggesting how watching Boston's radar on 2/6/10 was better than watching LWX's

[Bob Chill]

payback for Ian going into their snow thread and suggesting how watching Boston's radar on 2/6/10 was better than watching LWX's

 

Yea, and the ultimate payback was that we went 3+ years after that date with only 1 good storm...and I had the flu during that storm and couldn't even enjoy it. I got to enjoy a 103 fever with no power and a house in the 40's. The hallucinations were cool at least. 

[WxUSAF]

True, boxing day wasn't a miller B. I forgot how we got screwed so I just brushed up on Kocin's assessment @ WPC. The energy diving down from the midwest and weak front running low pressure that gave areas south of us snow fizzled before anything got here and then the wide turn of the FL panhandle low finished the agony. lol. 

kocin.JPG

 

 

For whatever reason, whenever there is some sort of process between 2 low pressures or vorts in the flow we seem to have a knack for falling in between more often than not. Boxing day was unique and it was a mistake for me to call it a typical classic b screwjob. However, you did a great job bringing up some awful memories of other classics. LOL

I remember going for a walk that day with weak little flakes drifting down under a high thin overcast that I could see the sun through.  Was really disappointing.  

[Bob Chill]

I remember going for a walk that day with weak little flakes drifting down under a high thin overcast that I could see the sun through.  Was really disappointing.  

 

There were warning signs late in the game but it was so easy to ignore after the previous season. We were a record breaking snow town after all right? It had to dump huge. ooops

 

 One of the reasons I'm so guarded about this coming winter is that fact alone. Being a snow town every 5 to 10 years happens. Being one in back to back hasn't happened since I was in high school (take out the freak vet storm and it hasn't happened since the early 80s).

 

The WD index was in full force last winter. The WND index is in full force this winter. 

[psuhoffman]

True, boxing day wasn't a miller B. I forgot how we got screwed so I just brushed up on Kocin's assessment @ WPC. The energy diving down from the midwest and weak front running low pressure that gave areas south of us snow fizzled before anything got here and then the wide turn of the FL panhandle low finished the agony. lol. 

kocin.JPG

 

 

For whatever reason, whenever there is some sort of process between 2 low pressures or vorts in the flow we seem to have a knack for falling in between more often than not. Boxing day was unique and it was a mistake for me to call it a typical classic b screwjob. However, you did a great job bringing up some awful memories of other classics. LOL

Where do you find the Kocin analysis?

[Bob Chill]

Where do you find the Kocin analysis?

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/

 

You can click back to the parent directory and get tons of others but they aren't neatly packaged in pdfs like 2010+. 

[Deck Pic]

Isotherm/zwyts,

 Here's how I'm analyzing the -10.1 August 2014 SOI as regards implications for the chance at El Nino:

 

I decided to analyze Augusts with a -9 or more negative SOI and see how many lead to El Nino:

 

Yes: 2006, 02, 1997, 94, 87, 82, 77, 76, 65, 53, 41, 49, 25, 23, 14, 11, 1899, and 96...total # = 18

No: 1993, 34, 1882, 81...total # = 4

 

18/22 = 82%. So, implication of a sub -9 SOI for August of 2014, when considered on its own, may mean there's about an 80% chance of a Nino for 2014-15. Anyway, that's the way I'm analyzing the August, 2014 SOI fwiw.

 

Thanks...I'd like to see Nino get going in the next few weeks...

 

one thing to keep in mind about Nino is that SST's were colder in the 50s and 60s....a low end moderate Nino like 02-03 would have peaked at almost 2.0 in the 1960s..it was substantially warmer in the means than 1963-64.....not sure what it means...and not sure it has a correlation to blocking, but as you know there was way more blocking in the 60s than there has been in the last 30+ years....I am real skeptical of a -NAO winter, even with a nino...we'll have periods of blocking...we always do in a Nino....but I am not as gung-ho as others on a blocky winter...

[AlaskaETC]

Thanks...I'd like to see Nino get going in the next few weeks...

 

one thing to keep in mind about Nino is that SST's were colder in the 50s and 60s....a low end moderate Nino like 02-03 would have peaked at almost 2.0 in the 1960s..it was substantially warmer in the means than 1963-64.....not sure what it means...and not sure it has a correlation to blocking, but as you know there was way more blocking in the 60s than there has been in the last 30+ years....I am real skeptical of a -NAO winter, even with a nino...we'll have periods of blocking...we always do in a Nino....but I am not as gung-ho as others on a blocky winter...

 

What sort of developments would you like to see in regards to a -NAO?

[Deck Pic]

What sort of developments would you like to see in regards to a -NAO?

 

A negative height anomaly south of the Aleutians in OCT....we even had one in the nina of 2010....

 

[WxUSAF]

A negative height anomaly south of the Aleutians in OCT....we even had one in the nina of 2010....

 

2010nao.png

0z GEFS has a nice Aleutians trough.  06z has it a bit farther north.  Seen a similar pattern the last couple days for the first 7-10 days of October.  

[mitchnick]

just a reminder to all, if you want the monthly detailed obs for the fall and winter of 09/10, you better grab them now if you don't have them because they only stay on the LWX climate site for 5 years

here's the link; just choose the Product-"Preliminary Monthly Climate Data", the Location, and the Time Frame

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

[Bob Chill]

0z GEFS has a nice Aleutians trough.  06z has it a bit farther north.  Seen a similar pattern the last couple days for the first 7-10 days of October.  

 

Euro ens has been showing similar but less amplified looks but the same general idea is there. The latest weeklies had an unusually strong signal for low heights in that area towards the end of Oct. CFSv2 is showing low heights in that region on the DJF seasonal means right now as well. 

 

Long lead stuff is really muddy of course but there are more + signs than - signs supporting at least potential for a favorable pac. 

[Deck Pic]

0z GEFS has a nice Aleutians trough.  06z has it a bit farther north.  Seen a similar pattern the last couple days for the first 7-10 days of October.  

 

 

Euro ens has been showing similar but less amplified looks but the same general idea is there. The latest weeklies had an unusually strong signal for low heights in that area towards the end of Oct. CFSv2 is showing low heights in that region on the DJF seasonal means right now as well. 

 

Long lead stuff is really muddy of course but there are more + signs than - signs supporting at least potential for a favorable pac. 

 

 

yeah...I think something like a euro configuration would be fine

 

[mattie g]

I remember going for a walk that day with weak little flakes drifting down under a high thin overcast that I could see the sun through.  Was really disappointing.  

 

I was at my brother's place in South Jersey on the 26th, but left in the early afternoon to get back before the storm hit.  I left as snow started falling and knew I was heading south towards much of nothing.  I was looking at the SREFs that morning like everyone else and got my hopes up as things trended northwest, but it became pretty apparent by the time I left that I'd see nothing.  I hit some snow showers on the way through Maryland and had a few flurries at home, but that was it.  I left behind 14" or so.