Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[AvantHiatus]

This is what I have been trying to get across for some time now. The baseline has shifted upwards but we can definitely see more anomalous events. All you need is one big storm to reach seasonal snowfall in some parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

[mitchnick]

9/23/13:

today:

[millwx]

Nope

 

Well, I just tried clicking on it straight from the link here.  Works fine.  I don't know why everyone is having a problem.  Very strange.

 

Google it and try to navigate there yourself (just search on GMAO GEOS5 seasonal forecast).

 

That is VERY odd... like I said, I just clicked on it from my post here and I get to it just fine.  I'm not special.    I don't have some fancy computer or some login account with NASA.  I access it the same way anyone else here would... and the link worked just fine for me.  Like I said, Google and try to navigate there yourself, maybe that'll work for you.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Weird, I can't even get there via google. I just get directed to this page that says internal network error. Not sure why..

[millwx]

Weird, I can't even get there via google. I just get directed to this page that says internal system error. Not sure why

 

I saw that error when I tried to navigate there a certain way.  When I tried another route/link it worked fine.  Maybe the cgi is messing it up.  No idea.  Very odd.  Try this:

 

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/projects/

 

Very simple URL.

 

Then click on "Seasonal Forecast Group".  It should take you there.  Let me know if it works.

[mitchnick]

I saw that error when I tried to navigate there a certain way.  When I tried another route/link it worked fine.  Maybe the cgi is messing it up.  No idea.  Very odd.  Try this:

 

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/projects/

 

Very simple URL.

 

Then click on "Seasonal Forecast Group".  It should take you there.  Let me know if it works.

works that way

it's weird though, when I try to copy the link and post it here, it won't work but if I copy it to another window on Firefox, it works fine

[StudentOfClimatology]

I saw that error when I tried to navigate there a certain way. When I tried another route/link it worked fine. Maybe the cgi is messing it up. No idea. Very odd. Try this:

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/projects/

Very simple URL.

Then click on "Seasonal Forecast Group". It should take you there. Let me know if it works.

Ha, that did the trick, thanks.

[AlaskaETC]

Worked for me too. I really do like the look of this, certainly appealing to the eye.

[Isotherm]

Latest JAMSTEC run shifts away from typical mod+ El Nino climatology, namely, the coldest temperature anomalies in the SE US, and now focuses them in the Mid-west, similar to last year.

 

This is probably b/c it's forecasting a weaker Nino than last month's run. Still looks like a weak Nino of +0.6c to +0.9c, and also maintains the warm pool in the NE PAC.

 

Judging by its temp anomalies globally, it seems to be forecasting a negative EPO, negative AO/NAO, and maybe a weakly positive PNA as there's some warmth in the West. But it's not carrying the cold all the way to the East Coast, possibly b/c the PNA signal isn't great. Western Europe is cold and NE Canada/Greenland quite warm which also seems to imply a fairly stout, west based -NAO.

 

Nonetheless, it's a good look at this stage. Above normal precip throughout the East and slightly warmer than normal temperatures, with cold to the west.

 

Still have another important update about a month from now in late October, and again November. I've seen the JAMSTEC change quite a bit still at these lead times.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Isotherm]

And it of course continues the -NAO with a very cold looking spring for the CONUS.

 

This is way out in time, but fun to look at nonetheless.

 

 

Taken verbatim, the JAMSTEC seems to be implicating another stretch of chilly consecutive months from Dec through Apr, not too dissimilar from this past year.

 

 

[mitchnick]

all the long range models seem to be showing mid-late winter into spring colder (than average) than the 1st half of winter

[mitchnick]

And it of course continues the -NAO with a very cold looking spring for the CONUS.

 

This is way out in time, but fun to look at nonetheless.

 

 

Taken verbatim, the JAMSTEC seems to be implicating another stretch of chilly consecutive months from Dec through Apr, not too dissimilar from this past year.

 

 

Atlantic seems to have the classic -NAO look and PAC ain't bad at all either (choose DEC-FEB Target Season-link will come up SEP-NOV)

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

[MDstorm]

Latest JAMSTEC run shifts away from typical mod+ El Nino climatology, namely, the coldest temperature anomalies in the SE US, and now focuses them in the Mid-west, similar to last year.

 

This is probably b/c it's forecasting a weaker Nino than last month's run. Still looks like a weak Nino of +0.6c to +0.9c, and also maintains the warm pool in the NE PAC.

 

Judging by its temp anomalies globally, it seems to be forecasting a negative EPO, negative AO/NAO, and maybe a weakly positive PNA as there's some warmth in the West. But it's not carrying the cold all the way to the East Coast, possibly b/c the PNA signal isn't great. Western Europe is cold and NE Canada/Greenland quite warm which also seems to imply a fairly stout, west based -NAO.

 

Nonetheless, it's a good look at this stage. Above normal precip throughout the East and slightly warmer than normal temperatures, with cold to the west.

 

Still have another important update about a month from now in late October, and again November. I've seen the JAMSTEC change quite a bit still at these lead times.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let's not forget what the good old JAMSTEC was projecting for last winter at this time last year.  Not quite on target, lol....

 

 

 

MDstorm

[millwx]

I assume most of you know where to get those JAMSTEC plots, if you want to view them yourself, look at old runs, etc.

If not, here it is...

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

Hopefully, that link doesn't provide the same headaches as the GEOS5 link. Lol.

FYI, this is the final September seasonal model... at least of the top ones that I, personally, track. It's always the last one to come in (based on my discussions with NASA, the GEOS5 ran long before yesterday; they simply failed to post some of the maps). The CFS runs daily, of course. The GloSea5 (UKMO) and Euro come out on or about the 8th of each month. The Brazilian comes out earlier. The GEOS5 I *think* is around the 10th, or maybe mid-month. The JMA (not JAMSTEC) doesn't run every month, so I'm not counting that... but I believe it will have an Oct run (not sure when it'll be available - I think around the 10th, perhaps). The JAMSTEC comes out around the 20th. Not sure why the delay this month, perhaps, like the GEOS5, they too had posting troubles - I inquired of them at 8AM their time this morning, and the maps were posted almost immediately thereafter. But that may just be coincidence, since they were due out by now anyway.

Anyone know of any other (quality) seasonal models? (I've purposely excluded the EuroSip and IRI models, as they are not independent. I've also not included the suite of "minor" models run by CPC.)

[AlaskaETC]

JAMSTEC doesn't look bad, a little warm, but we get +precipitation...

[SNO]

With the upcoming coastal low / faux noreaster in the offing for later today and tomorrow...could this be one of the winter features we see in the months ahead? If so, the I-95 East crowd could score a coup...while the I-81 crew is simply too far west for the good stuff...time will tell.

[AlaskaETC]

With the upcoming coastal low / faux noreaster in the offing for later today and tomorrow...could this be one of the winter features we see in the months ahead? If so, the I-95 East crowd could score a coup...while the I-81 crew is simply too far west for the good stuff...time will tell.

 

Don't think this storm is the harbinger of any pattern.

[Deck Pic]

With the upcoming coastal low / faux noreaster in the offing for later today and tomorrow...could this be one of the winter features we see in the months ahead? If so, the I-95 East crowd could score a coup...while the I-81 crew is simply too far west for the good stuff...time will tell.

 

it means nothing

[AvantHiatus]

it means nothing

Tbh, the high pressure placement is awful for snow. Tho, if the atmosphere is loaded with moisture we could definitely reach our average snowfall in an otherwise crappy winter with a perfectly timed event.

[Deck Pic]

Nino looks bad..hopefully it's just noise...we still have time, but need to see a rise over the next 2-3 weeks

[JoMo]

I assume most of you know where to get those JAMSTEC plots, if you want to view them yourself, look at old runs, etc.

If not, here it is...

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

Hopefully, that link doesn't provide the same headaches as the GEOS5 link. Lol.

FYI, this is the final September seasonal model... at least of the top ones that I, personally, track. It's always the last one to come in (based on my discussions with NASA, the GEOS5 ran long before yesterday; they simply failed to post some of the maps). The CFS runs daily, of course. The GloSea5 (UKMO) and Euro come out on or about the 8th of each month. The Brazilian comes out earlier. The GEOS5 I *think* is around the 10th, or maybe mid-month. The JMA (not JAMSTEC) doesn't run every month, so I'm not counting that... but I believe it will have an Oct run (not sure when it'll be available - I think around the 10th, perhaps). The JAMSTEC comes out around the 20th. Not sure why the delay this month, perhaps, like the GEOS5, they too had posting troubles - I inquired of them at 8AM their time this morning, and the maps were posted almost immediately thereafter. But that may just be coincidence, since they were due out by now anyway.

Anyone know of any other (quality) seasonal models? (I've purposely excluded the EuroSip and IRI models, as they are not independent. I've also not included the suite of "minor" models run by CPC.)

 

I think the last JMA run was Sept 3rd? Posted to the website on the 10th maybe?

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/

 

Cold look on the JMA for the eastern 2/3rds of the nation. Ridge up into Alaska.

 

 

 

[millwx]

I think the last JMA run was Sept 3rd? Posted to the website on the 10th maybe?

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/

 

Cold look on the JMA for the eastern 2/3rds of the nation. Ridge up into Alaska.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, it was on the 3rd (posted later... I think around the 10th... plus or minus).  If you pull down the menu on their page for the historicals, it looks like they do an October 3rd update as well.  So, you can expect an update from them sometime around then.

 

As for this run, yes, agreed... it looks good.  I'm hard-pressed to find anything to whine about (assuming one wants a snowy winter).  Maybe the peak 500mb anomaly is a little far east?  (You don't want to be right in the middle of the trough... you want the axis west of you just a bit.)  But that's REALLY splitting hairs this far out.  Looks good (I mean snow-favorable... I'm not saying it's right) to me.

 

Edit/Correction:  The historicals show the October run is done mid-month... though they show the September run done on September 13th.  It was done 10 days earlier this year.  So, who knows when they'll do the October run.  The only thing I'm fairly confident of is that they'll do an Oct run.

[Isotherm]

I think it's a virtual lock we see a verified weak Nino given strong statistical support.

 

A -11 SOI August (or lower) has always preceded - at minimum - a weak El Nino event in the ensuing winter season. Of course there's much more to it than solely the SOI, but it is a good indicator of the pressure pattern in the tropical pacific and thus the progression of an ENSO event. I would be very shocked if this one dies off for a neutral ENSO winter.

[wildweatherman179]

Let's not forget what the good old JAMSTEC was projecting for last winter at this time last year. Not quite on target, lol....

temp2_glob_DJF2014_1sep2013.gif

MDstorm

Lol. Anyone who actually watched the weather last year instead of a computer screen should've known that was a bust from the start.

This winter's JAMSTEC, although still early, I believe has a lot of things right with the exception of the 500 MB anomaly.

[Deck Pic]

I think it's a virtual lock we see a verified weak Nino given strong statistical support.

 

A -11 SOI August (or lower) has always preceded - at minimum - a weak El Nino event in the ensuing winter season. Of course there's much more to it than solely the SOI, but it is a good indicator of the pressure pattern in the tropical pacific and thus the progression of an ENSO event. I would be very shocked if this one dies off for a neutral ENSO winter.

 

1993?...small sample size , no?...I have my doubts about this nino...I am 50/50

[Bob Chill]

1993?...small sample size , no?...I have my doubts about this nino...I am 50/50

 

I'm not even sure it makes that much of a difference if we go weak or warm neutral. It's pretty obvious that mod+ is required to have a relatively predictable precip pattern in our parts. So, I'm thinking very similar to you irt what could drive the pattern outside of enso. Much will hinge on the npac and dominant lw pattern.

 

Just like what we've been discussing lately, the short story is get a favorable pac with lower heights south of the aleutians and a +pna tendency it opens the door for southern stream energy undercutting. Get a GOA vortex and -pna on the means and were in a heck of a lot of trouble. 

 

Stating the obvious here but the NAO/AO will decide the rest of our fate. Still way to early to discuss that. 

 

After last years endless tracking and magnitude of smaller events, I'm hoping we have a period favorable for a more classic miller A type of LW pattern. 

[AlaskaETC]

I'm not even sure it makes that much of a difference if we go weak or warm neutral. It's pretty obvious that mod+ is required to have a relatively predictable precip pattern in our parts. So, I'm thinking very similar to you irt what could drive the pattern outside of enso. Much will hinge on the npac and dominant lw pattern.

 

Just like what we've been discussing lately, the short story is get a favorable pac with lower heights south of the aleutians and a +pna tendency it opens the door for southern stream energy undercutting. Get a GOA vortex and -pna on the means and were in a heck of a lot of trouble. 

 

Stating the obvious here but the NAO/AO will decide the rest of our fate. Still way to early to discuss that. 

 

After last years endless tracking and magnitude of smaller events, I'm hoping we have a period favorable for a more classic miller A type of LW pattern. 

 

I would gladly sacrifice one true Miller A event for several smaller events spread out that bring 4" or more.

[Bob Chill]

I would gladly sacrifice one true Miller A event for several smaller events spread out that bring 4" or more.

 

 

There are some early signs of the npac lining up to be more favorable than hostile. Ensembles are looking about as good as you can ask for during early October. If they verify and the ssta config starts resembling a more classic +PDO as the month wears on we can take a little comfort that the pac "probably won't suck". 

 

I borrowed this from the SNE thread. These are h7 and not h5 but still, the lw configuration is ideal in many ways in both possible southern storm track and available cold air. 

 

[AlaskaETC]

There are some early signs of the npac lining up to be more favorable than hostile. Ensembles are looking about as good as you can ask for during early October. If they verify and the ssta config starts resembling a more classic +PDO as the month wears on we can take a little comfort that the pac "probably won't suck". 

 

I borrowed this from the SNE thread. These are h7 and not h5 but still, the lw configuration is ideal in many ways in both possible southern storm track and available cold air. 

 

 

Looks very interesting indeed. If we can get several Miller As/Bs, then bring it on. I would just hate to have only one or two "meh" storms that bring 8-12" with the rest of winter going dry. Just me though. If we can get that spread out across DJF, I'm gold.

 

Then again, if we only get one or two storms that bring 1996/2010 levels of snow, then I won't complain.

[Bob Chill]

Looks very interesting indeed. If we can get several Miller As/Bs, then bring it on. I would just hate to have only one or two "meh" storms that bring 8-12" with the rest of winter going dry. Just me though. If we can get that spread out across DJF, I'm gold.

 

Then again, if we only get one or two storms that bring 1996/2010 levels of snow, then I won't complain.

 

This look has been on the GEFS for a few days now. Euro ensembles aren't as amplified but have the same general idea. This is d16 but the progression of d10-16 is what we would really like to see during the winter months. Aleutian low dropping south, pna spiking, -ao, and nice bagginess under the pna ridge.  If I saw this look in DJF I would be encouraged for sure.