Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[StudentOfClimatology]

GFS caves in like a tin can with the bizarre coastal thing. Those years are major torchfests aside from a few like 2009 and I don't really use anything pre-1960 due to climate.

I understand that you want a torch, but all of the post-1960 years on that correlatory map (2009-10, 1979-80, 1976-77, 1967-68, and 1963-64) featured bouts of significant cold/snow in these parts, and only one was above average in the means (1979-80), though it too had a frigid February. Four of them (2009-10, 1976-77, 1967-68, 1963-64) were huge for cold and/or snow:

[AvantHiatus]

I understand that you want a torch, but all of the post-1960 years on that correlatory map (2009-10, 1979-80, 1976-77, 1967-68, and 1963-64) featured bouts of significant cold/snow in these parts, and only one was above average in the means (1979-80), though it too had a frigid February. Four of them (2009-10, 1976-77, 1967-68, 1963-64) were huge for cold and/or snow:

Tbh, I did not actually look. I've always assumed a warm October is bad for winter, or at the very least a warm November. How is snowfall? Some years are cold and dry.

 

I don't want a torch, that's just how I see winter progressive objectively.

[AvantHiatus]

Averaging the winters following a strongly -QBO during the autumn gives this picture. Pretty clear signal as to what it generally favors.

 

Conflicting signals this winter, we are doomed without a -NAO unless the NPAC holds onto its warmth/-EPO.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Tbh, I did not actually look. I've always assumed a warm October is bad for winter, or at the very least a warm November.

Looking at the data certainly helps. But yeah that October myth is all over the place for some reason. Didn't work last year, that's for sure.

I'm not sold on the idea of a prolonged October torch, anyway.

[AvantHiatus]

Looking at the data certainly helps. But yeah that October myth is all over the place for some reason. Didn't work last year, that's for sure.

I'm not sold on the idea of a prolonged October torch, anyway.

See my above post. I think using CPC analogs for one week to predict a winter is somewhat rash. Has it been an effective predictor in past years?

[StudentOfClimatology]

Let's move this to the winter thread.

[AvantHiatus]

Probably the dumbest analysis I've ever seen. You can't incorporate the QBO a without first accounting for ENSO and Solar because the effects on the N-PAC will be totally different depending on those primary/antecedent forcings.

What are the analogs for a weak el nino and -QBO? How is Solar related to something like the QBO? Seems like total BS. You have much to learn.

 

Effects of the QBO include mixing of stratospheric ozone by the secondary circulation caused by the QBO, modification of monsoon precipitation, and an influence on stratospheric circulation in northern hemisphere winter (mediated partly by a change in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings). Westward phases of the QBO often coincide with more sudden stratospheric warmings, a weaker Atlantic jet stream and cold winters in Northern Europe and eastern USA whereas eastward phases of the QBO often coincide with mild winters in eastern USA and a strong Atlantic jet stream with mild, wet stormy winters in northern Europe (Ebdon 1975).

[StudentOfClimatology]

What are the analogs for a weak el nino and -QBO? How is Solar related to something like the QBO? Seems like total BS. You have much to learn.

This has been extensively researched...read the literature before making assumptions like this.

http://depts.washington.edu/amath/old_website/research/articles/Tung/journals/camp-tung-0721-revised.pdf

The QBO correlation is highly dependent on ENSO and Solar. Example, +QBO/Niña will generally give you a stronger Aleutian/GOA ridge (2010-11/2008-09), while the -QBO/Niña will generally give you a weaker Aleutian/GOA ridge (2007-08/2011-12).

Meanwhile, +QBO/Nino tends to support a stronger +EPO/+AO (2006-07), while a -QBO/Nino tends to support more of a legitimate -AO/+PNA look (2009-10).

The solar factor also is a wild-card. Some solar max/+QBO couplets can be good with a wavy PV/anticyclone bombardment, vs solar max in a -QBO which can screw with SSW propagation and lead to a mess.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Give this a read, it'll help you:

http://depts.washington.edu/amath/old_website/research/articles/Tung/journals/camp-tung-0721-revised.pdf

The Influence of the Solar Cycle and QBO on the Late Winter Stratospheric Polar Vortex

Charles D. Camp1 and Ka-Kit Tung Department of Applied Mathematics University of Washington, Seattle

We conduct a statistical analysis of 51 years of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data to isolate the sepa- rate effects of the 11-year solar cycle (SC) and the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere in late winter (February-March). In a four-group (SC-max vs. -min and east- vs. west-phase QBO) linear discriminant analysis, the state of the westerly phase QBO (wQBO) during SC-min emerges as a distinct least-perturbed (and coldest) state of the stratospheric polar vortex, statistically well-separated from the other perturbed states. Rela- tive to this least-perturbed state, SC-max and easterly QBO (eQBO) each independently provides perturbation and warming as does the combined perturbation of SC-max/eQBO. All these results (except the east-QBO perturbation) are significant at the 95% confidence level as confirmed by Monte-Carlo tests; the eQBO perturbation is marginally significant at the 90% level. This observa- tional result suggests a conceptual change in understanding the interaction between solar cycle and QBO influences: while previous results imply a more substantial interaction, even to the extent that the warming due to SC-max is reversed to cooling by the easterly QBO, our results suggests that SC-max and eQBO separately warm the polar stratosphere from the least perturbed state. While previous authors emphasize the importance of segregating the data according to the phase of the QBO, we find the same polar warming by the solar cycle regardless of the phase of the QBO.

The polar temperature is positively correlated with the SC, with a statistically significant zonal mean warming of approximately 4.6 ◦K in the 10-50 hPa layer in the mean and 7.2 ◦K from peak to peak. This magnitude of the warming in winter is too large to be explainable by UV radiation alone. The evidence seems to suggest that the polar warming in NH late winter during SC-max is due to he occurrence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) as noted previously by other authors. This hypothesis is circumstantially substantiated here by the similarity between the meridional pattern and timing of the warming and cooling observed during SC-max and the known pattern and timing of SSWs, which has the form of large warming over the pole and small cooling over the midlatitudes during mid and late winter. Easterly QBO is also known to precondition the polar vortex for the onset of SSWs, and it has been pointed out by previous authors that SSWs can occur during eQBO at all stages of the solar cycle. The additional perturbation due to SC-max does not double the frequency of occurrence of SSW’s induced by eQBO. This explains why the SC- max/eQBO years are not statistically warmer than either SC-max/wQBO or SC-min/eQBO years. The difference between two perturbed (warm) states, e.g., SC-max/eQBO vs. SC-min/eQBO or SC-max/eQBO vs. SC-max/wQBO, is small (about 0.3-0.4 ◦K) and not statistically significant. It is this small difference between perturbed states, both warmer than the least-perturbed state, which has in the past been interpreted either as a reversal of SC-induced warming or as a reversal of QBO-induced warming.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Here's another great paper. Really, these are fascinating reads, and learning about these processes has helped my long range accuracy tremendously:

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/228949221_Effect_of_QBO_and_ENSO_on_the_solar_cycle_modulation_of_winter_North_Atlantic_Oscillation

ABSTRACT The effect of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niñ o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the 11-year solar cycle modulation of the winter-mean North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is examined through analysis of observational data from 1958 to 2000. It is found that the solar cycle modulation of the NAO is more strongly enhanced in the westerly phase of the 50-hPa QBO wind and the cold phase of ENSO, although separation of these effects is statistically difficult. On these phases, the signal of the winter-mean NAO extends more to the upper stratosphere and summer-AO reappears more strongly in high solar years, whereas the signal is weaker throughout in low solar years.

[AvantHiatus]

Food for thought, would AGW reduce the stratospheric warming occurrence due to GHG-forced cooling of the stratosphere? Also, isn't there a 1:1 correlation between autumn and winter PNA? If so, we are starting out unfavorably.

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Food for thought, would AGW reduce the stratospheric warming occurrence due to GHG-forced cooling of the stratosphere?

Well, AGW could theoretically lead to a stronger PV under certain conditions, but our CFC emissions were/are a much larger issue there due to their detrimental effects on O^3. As for SSWings and AGW, I doubt it, as you're looking at tropospheric-sourced wave-breakers there. The state of the NPAC also matters as deep Aleutian/NPAC troughing tends to enhance perturbation to the PV.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Also, isn't there a 1:1 correlation between autumn and winter PNA? If so, we are starting out unfavorably.

I've never heard of that. Though your CPC graph looks to be depicting a generally +PNA there?

[StudentOfClimatology]

What are the analogs for a weak el nino and -QBO? How is Solar related to something like the QBO? Seems like total BS. You have much to learn.

Effects of the QBO include mixing of stratospheric ozone by the secondary circulation caused by the QBO, modification of monsoon precipitation, and an influence on stratospheric circulation in northern hemisphere winter (mediated partly by a change in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings). Westward phases of the QBO often coincide with more sudden stratospheric warmings, a weaker Atlantic jet stream and cold winters in Northern Europe and eastern USA whereas eastward phases of the QBO often coincide with mild winters in eastern USA and a strong Atlantic jet stream with mild, wet stormy winters in northern Europe (Ebdon 1975).

Actually, where did you pull that quote from? Whoever wrote that has everything backwards. It's the easterly phase of the QBO that favors SSW activity, not the western phase, though these phenomenon are complex and can occur in any QBO phase.

[AvantHiatus]

I've never heard of that. Though your CPC graph looks to be depicting a generally +PNA there?

Looks like the browser cache was not refreshing properly. The ENSM forecasts were showing a return to a strongly negative PNA last time I checked. Quite a bit of volatility, for the time being things are tanking back down.

 

Even hovering around neutral is not acceptable considering the state of the NAO and -QBO. The best we can hope for is an average winter based on everything I've seen.

 

 

 

Actually, where did you pull that quote from? Whoever wrote that has everything backwards. It's the easterly phase of the QBO that favors SSW activity, not the western phase, though these phenomenon are complex and can occur in any QBO phase. 

Wikipedia, feel free to edit the article. It's open for everyone.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

[StudentOfClimatology]

Looks like the browser cache was not refreshing properly. The ENSM forecasts were showing a return to a strongly negative PNA last time I checked. Quite a bit of volatility, for the time being things are tanking back down.

I don't think it matters, dude. There's nothing about the N-PAC right now that suggests trouble is afoot..in fact the PNA a has been biased positive and that looks to continue in the long run, assuming model guidance is correct (which is a *big* if when you've got W-PAC typhoon forcing to deal with).

Even hovering around neutral is not acceptable considering the state of the NAO and -QBO. The best we can hope for is an average winter based on everything I've seen.

The -QBO/Niño is as good as it gets for SSW potential. Question is does the active Sun mess with the EP-flux and prevent adequate propagation? That's my biggest worry for this winter.

Wikipedia, feel free to edit the article. It's open for everyone.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

Yeah it needs an edit. That's totally wrong.

[Bob Chill]

Probably meaningless as far as winter is concerned at this lead but ensembles are converging on a possible aleutian low / PNA ridge scenario down the road a bit.

[Deck Pic]

Probably meaningless as far as winter is concerned at this lead but ensembles are converging on a possible aleutian low / PNA ridge scenario down the road a bit.

 

not meaningless...we want to see a vortex somewhere in the NPAC In oct...preferably south of the Aleutians...

[Bob Chill]

not meaningless...we want to see a vortex somewhere in the NPAC In oct...preferably south of the Aleutians...

We'll see how it shakes out. Lead is pretty long. There seems to be a persistent but progressive pattern of storminess in the npac right now. I'm hoping this helps the ssta config resemble a more classic +PDO and not just a mathematical one.

[T. August]

Probably meaningless as far as winter is concerned at this lead but ensembles are converging on a possible aleutian low / PNA ridge scenario down the road a bit.

Are you referring to day 32 on the Euro ens.? Looks pretty decent.

[millwx]

New GMAO/GEOS5 forecast out:

 

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/products/climateforecasts/GEOS5/request.cgi?varmain=AFA

 

Pretty neutral temps (slightly warm NE...but barely).  But much cooler than the August run.

 

Actually, it was supposed to be posted a long time ago (their SST forecast already was).  I think they had an issue they weren't aware of.  As soon as I asked them about it this morning, less than an hour later, it was posted.  

[AvantHiatus]

Link is broken on my end, website could be experiencing problems tho.

[AlaskaETC]

Same here...

[aldie 22]

Link is broken on my end, website could be experiencing problems tho.

Just assume it shows a warm winter...that's pretty much what you've been doing anyway lol

[millwx]

Link is broken on my end, website could be experiencing problems tho.

 

Weird.  Here's the DJF...

 

[AvantHiatus]

Just assume it shows a warm winter...that's pretty much what you've been doing anyway lol

That map is meh-tastic everywhere. I'll be putting out specific numbers later. Locally it could be shadey while DC and west score.

[T. August]

That map is meh-tastic everywhere. I'll be putting out specific numbers later. Locally it could be shadey while DC and west score.

The DJF map? Honestly, I think it looks OK. I wouldn't pay attention to the magnitude of the departures, just the placement.

 

Based on that map alone, JB's forecast just might verify.

[AvantHiatus]

The DJF map? Honestly, I think it looks OK. I wouldn't pay attention to the magnitude of the departures, just the placement.

 

Based on that map alone, JB's forecast just might verify.

Globally, it has a 97-98 profile. Strong positive anomalies in Eastern Canada, classic el nino signature.

[AlaskaETC]

Globally, it has a 97-98 profile. Strong positive anomalies in Eastern Canada, classic el nino signature.

 

Yeah, that weak Nino will bring record setting warmth.

[millwx]

That map is meh-tastic everywhere. I'll be putting out specific numbers later. Locally it could be shadey while DC and west score.

 

 

Meh is right.  I didn't say it looked good, lol.  I just thought I'd share it as the GEOS5 and JAMSTEC are the last of the "major" seasonal models we're waiting for this month.  GEOS5 now in.  Still waiting on JAMSTEC.