Deck Pic Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I posted this on the main board enso thread. I think we can all live with this. It's not even that far from getting into mod territory. Going to be tough for tri-monthlies at this point but I wouldn't be all that surprised if 3.4 makes it to 1.2+ for a period during late fall/early winter. CFSv2 forecasts for the other Nino regions definitely show 3.4 being warmest relative to its neighbors. Nino 1-2 is forecast to drop to close to neutral. Hardly a bad thing. All we can do is watch and wait. I'd use 1982-2010 norms which lower it a bit...enso models have been great some years and awful other years...my guess is the DJF tri-monthly is around 0.6 or 0.7...but that is a wild guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 idk Bob, if we're going to take the CFS2 SSTA forecast, isn't it hard to discount the rest of its forecasts (temp/precip)? idk the answer, but the CFS2 continues to paint an ugly winter forecast with a stubborn low south of the GOA that pumps warm, moist air into the lower 48 and the CFS2 scares me because it did pretty well last winter in general and was darn good mid and late winter, but prior years prove it's inconsistent at this point, I'm hoping it's just misplacing the low too far south in the PAC I think DT pointed out in last week's "This Week in Weather" video that the CFS was actually a miss last winter, or something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 idk Bob, if we're going to take the CFS2 SSTA forecast, isn't it hard to discount the rest of its forecasts (temp/precip)? idk the answer, but the CFS2 continues to paint an ugly winter forecast with a stubborn low south of the GOA that pumps warm, moist air into the lower 48 and the CFS2 scares me because it did pretty well last winter in general and was darn good mid and late winter, but prior years prove it's inconsistent at this point, I'm hoping it's just misplacing the low too far south in the PAC The thing about the cfs (at least from what I see) is it flips all over because initial conditions change at short leads and that greatly affects the runs down the line. It definitely seems to have skill in the 6 to 8 week range. Just my opinion from what I've seen it do but it seems at it's best grabbing initial conditions and moving forward 1-2 months but gets really noisy after that. So, seeing a tight cluster taking 3.4 to 1.0 by the end of October is encouraging. And the most recent members favor warmer vs cooler. On the flip side, I see no reason to doubt the possibility of a GOA low setting up for a time. Especially during Dec. It could happen as easily as an aleutian low. If we move towards a more classic nino look in the pac then there are reasons to doubt it and the CFS will likely flip back cold (or at least not coast to coast warmth anyways) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I'd use 1982-2010 norms which lower it a bit...enso models have been great some years and awful other years...my guess is the DJF tri-monthly is around 0.6 or 0.7...but that is a wild guess.. Very reasonable guess. Especially considering the late blooming nature of the event. We've had a favorable trend towards "quicker" warming just recently. If we can maximize that momentum and not take another step back then maybe we eek out .9 - 1.1. That guess is definitely on the optimistic side but not irrational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Very reasonable guess. Especially considering the late blooming nature of the event. We've had a favorable trend towards "quicker" warming just recently. If we can maximize that momentum and not take another step back then maybe we eek out .9 - 1.1. That guess is definitely on the optimistic side but not irrational. of course the forecast ninos at this range of the last 2 winters yielded DJF -0.6's....so I am not confident at this point..and of course there have been other debacles...2005-06 was a quasi nino prediction too...and 2008-09 was a bad miss too...2012-13 is confounding...how we were at 0.8 around now and then it just plummeted in late fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 of course the forecast ninos at this range of the last 2 winters yielded DJF -0.6's....so I am not confident at this point..and of course there have been other debacles...2005-06 was a quasi nino prediction too...and 2008-09 was a bad miss too...2012-13 is confounding...how we were at 0.8 around now and then it just plummeted in late fall... So you're saying this was a bad forecast? lol This is the euro sept plume. Similar to the CFS at least. For us, the waiting game continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 So you're saying this was a bad forecast? lol euro2013enso.JPG This is the euro sept plume. Similar to the CFS at least. For us, the waiting game continues.... euro2014enso.JPG I've been looking at OLR data...I am not sure of the reasons why 2012 feel apart and reversed, and whether looking back we could have predicted it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I think DT pointed out in last week's "This Week in Weather" video that the CFS was actually a miss last winter, or something along those lines. We can go back and see what it predicted...it was pretty bad in Sept...then it actually got worse in Oct, a lot worse...it finally started getting a clue in late Oct/early Nov Early Sept forecast: Early October forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I've been looking at OLR data...I am not sure of the reasons why 2012 feel apart and reversed, and whether looking back we could have predicted it I grabbed the wrong year. Here's 2012. At least we can take some comfort that at the same lead, 2012 already showed tight agreement for cooling. Right now there is pretty tight agreement for continued warming through the end of Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I grabbed the wrong year. Here's 2012. At least we can take some comfort that at the same lead, 2012 already showed tight agreement for cooling. Right now there is pretty tight agreement for continued warming through the end of Oct. euro2012enso.JPG it looks like the standard nino peak and then cooling..models were a disaster for whatever reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 We can go back and see what it predicted...it was pretty bad in Sept...then it actually got worse in Oct, a lot worse...it finally started getting a clue in late Oct/early Nov Thanks for this. I've always thought the CFS' most useful range was mid month forecast for the following month but I don't really follow it all that much. Too much of a roller coaster at longer leads. I suppose you can say that about all models because long lead stuff is inherently complicated. But the CFS seems to take the crown from my limited experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Thanks for this. I've always thought the CFS' most useful range was mid month forecast for the following month but I don't really follow it all that much. Too much of a roller coaster at longer leads. I suppose you can say that about all models because long lead stuff is inherently complicated. But the CFS seems to take the crown from my limited experience. Yeah the CFS is ok at 30 days...here's the December forecast from the mid-month initialization of November last year....you can see it was finally understanding that December could feature widespread cold in the country, but obviously the anomalies were not nearly extreme enough over the central US and Rockies, and ironically too cold in the lower M.A. and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 it looks like the standard nino peak and then cooling..models were a disaster for whatever reason I went back and started looking at ssta plots for that summer/fall. August was just about as bad as you could ask for irt the PDO. The nw pac was roasting by the end of the month. I suppose this could have been considered a red flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I grabbed the wrong year. Here's 2012. At least we can take some comfort that at the same lead, 2012 already showed tight agreement for cooling. Right now there is pretty tight agreement for continued warming through the end of Oct. euro2012enso.JPG I think a warning sign in 2012 or at least a hope sign for this winter is region 4...we are in much better shape in region 4 than we were in 2012 at this time...we should be even warmer in region 4 next update...look at 2012...positive but pretty meh around the dateline....also look at the PDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I went back and started looking at ssta plots for that summer/fall. August was just about as bad as you could ask for irt the PDO. The nw pac was roasting by the end of the month. I suppose this could have been considered a red flag? I think a warning sign in 2012 or at least a hope sign for this winter is region 4...we are in much better shape in region 4 than we were in 2012 at this time...we should be even warmer in region 4 next update...look at 2012...positive but pretty meh around the dateline....also look at the PDO GMTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 GMTA LOL. We should do our best to forget that year and not dissect it. 04 seems like the closest recent match I can find in the PAC so far this year. Wouldn't take that much for a similar overall lw pattern to produce a decent winter. Add a little blocking into an 04-05 setup and it would be pretty decent at least as far as opportunity goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Thing is 04/05 was transitioning into the +QBO, so less in the way of propagating wave breakers that year = less blocking. FWIW, the 12Z GEFS ensembles keep that low in the GOA/NPAC through the end of the run. Hopefully at least somewhat in line with the correlation to the -NAO for DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 SSTA animation off Coral Reef site; I haven't seen the link posted lately http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 don't know if anyone saw it, but the September Euro long range forecast does not look too bad at all, at least from the perspective of the limited freebie maps again, the best maps we can see is South America, so it only goes as far north as NC, but some good stuff nonetheless for all options (2m temps, precip, sea level pressure, and sea surface temps), it groups the time periods into 3 months, with the first option OCT-DEC temps over the season definitely cool the later you go, with the 2 links below DEC-FEB and JAN-MAR http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_2tm!2m%20temperature!3%20months!South%20America!201409!tercile%20summary!/ http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_2tm!2m%20temperature!4%20months!South%20America!201409!tercile%20summary!/ precip maps look pretty good as well; I can't help but think that the above normal areas get into VA/MD http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_rain!rain!3%20months!South%20America!201409!tercile%20summary!/ http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_rain!rain!4%20months!South%20America!201409!tercile%20summary!/ probably the most encouraging maps to me are the sea level pressure maps; a whole lot of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico! http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_mslp!mean%20sea%20level%20pressure!3%20months!South%20America!201409!tercile%20summary!/ http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_mslp!mean%20sea%20level%20pressure!4%20months!South%20America!201409!tercile%20summary!/ obviously, it's just another long range model and near the end of its range, but it sure looks a whole lot better than the CFS2; why it's WinterWxLuvr's favorite model is beyond me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Those maps look pretty nino-ish in general, Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Those maps look pretty nino-ish in general, Mitch. yup, which is nice and somewhat reassuring at this stage of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 yup, which is nice and somewhat reassuring at this stage of the game Assuming we go weakish (1.0 max) on 3.4, there are a lot of questions irt to how we start things off. 94-95, 04-05, and 06-07 basically threw Dec into the garbage can. All 3 had different patterns overall but had one thing in common...no meaningful hl blocking the whole month. IMO- beating climo this year needs to start off at least semi decent in Dec. Even if Dec is light on snow, it really needs to either start off with or develop blocking during the month. This is the biggest reason I'm indifferent on what to expect this winter. If we start off Dec with a raging +ao and or nao we are in trouble in the MA. It's not that I don't think the cold and snowy calls can't verify. I just think they can easily bust huge if we start off met winter in the crapper. All recent weak nino's had a relatively prolonged period of a hostile pattern. I'm kinda expecting one but have no confidence when it may occur. Feb looks to be the safest month so I'm ready to be a little frustrated at some point in Dec-Jan. Just a hunch so far though. Not basing it on anything except past history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Some more warming in the El Nino area in the latest chart, with usual caveats for this type of map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Assuming we go weakish (1.0 max) on 3.4, there are a lot of questions irt to how we start things off. 94-95, 04-05, and 06-07 basically threw Dec into the garbage can. All 3 had different patterns overall but had one thing in common...no meaningful hl blocking the whole month. IMO- beating climo this year needs to start off at least semi decent in Dec. Even if Dec is light on snow, it really needs to either start off with or develop blocking during the month. This is the biggest reason I'm indifferent on what to expect this winter. If we start off Dec with a raging +ao and or nao we are in trouble in the MA. It's not that I don't think the cold and snowy calls can't verify. I just think they can easily bust huge if we start off met winter in the crapper. All recent weak nino's had a relatively prolonged period of a hostile pattern. I'm kinda expecting one but have no confidence when it may occur. Feb looks to be the safest month so I'm ready to be a little frustrated at some point in Dec-Jan. Just a hunch so far though. Not basing it on anything except past history. if the Gulf of Alaska can hold onto its current configuration, or real close, we're gold.....I think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 if the Gulf of Alaska can hold onto its current configuration, or real close, we're gold.....I think! Get ready for some panic buttons in 2 weeks. lol. Doesn't matter much in the short term anyways. The GOA went from pretty yellow/orange to solid blue this time last year. Persistent troughing/bn temps forecast in that region for at least 10 days. It will only matter if that type of pattern starts persisting during late nov thru dec. I'm personally more interested in the ssts in the NW pac and south of the aleutians. I'm hoping those cool to bn by late Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Mid Sept plumes are out from IRI. Slight improvement from August. More consensus in the .7-1.0 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Mid Sept plumes are out from IRI. Slight improvement from August. More consensus in the .7-1.0 range. slightly late in its max it seems; usually around Christmas (Dynamic average at least) that "may" be why the Euro has the east getting colder latter?....just a wag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 slightly late in its max it seems; usually around Christmas (Dynamic average at least) that "may" be why the Euro has the east getting colder latter?....just a wag yeah...only about 10% of Ninos strengthen after early winter.....very very high chance the NDJ reading will be higher or the same as the DJF reading.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 From Twitter today, HM and Adam ( formally am19psu on here ) were talking about the potential for early winter blocking. "@antmasiello: Snowy, cool November for Ohio valley, lakes, Ontario, interior Northeast, mid Atlantic? #pna #forcing #pdo #holycrapwinteriscoming" Adams response: "@AdamPHLWx: @antmasiello Sounds like a plan... pretty hard to see a way the winter doesn't at least start blocky" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Hey Mitch....does the CFS show a frigid winter yet? Don't worry, sooner or later it will. Bob, Mitch....we need a Dec 5 forecast every few days just to get the juices flowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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