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Winter 2014-2015 Thread


Ji

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DC snow stats broken down by month since 1981. Do we break a 26 year streak of no back to back climo+? If any year stands a chance this seems like a good one. I thought the same thing in 10-11 though....i was almost certain...oops. Not apples to apples in some important ways wrt enso but still, it doesn't come easy to say the least.

 

 

 

post-2035-0-50413000-1410800961_thumb.jp

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DC snow stats broken down by month since 1981. Do we break a 26 year streak of no back to back climo+? If any year stands a chance this seems like a good one. I thought the same thing in 10-11 though....i was almost certain...oops. Not apples to apples in some important ways wrt enso but still, it doesn't come easy to say the least.

 

 

 

attachicon.gifdcsnow.JPG

 

 

climo is essentially 10"...doesn't mean we will be happy with a 10" winter of course...but the 15.4" norm is kind of useless for our purposes....but for back to back big winters, I think you're right about our chances

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climo is essentially 10"...doesn't mean we will be happy with a 10" winter of course...but the 15.4" norm is kind of useless for our purposes....but for back to back big winters, I think you're right about our chances

 

True. We've been mostly in a go big or go home era of snowfall. 

 

Last year was killer obviously but also exhausting. We seem to be getting some pieces coming together right now that could potentially set the stage for coastal storminess vs lots fast moving vorts waves fraught with peril. I'd gladly trade # of events for quality of events this year. Of course what I want means zero but I like the early signs. Even if we have a dud period of warmth, I would still be happy to hit 20-30" at the airports with the balance coming from 3 long track storms that are in a more classic setup for decent MA storms. 

 

It's way to early for me to hedge one way or another. If this was late Oct or early Nov I would definitely like what I see going on. But it's September and it's been a step forward and 1/2 step back process for months now. Maybe we break the back on that or maybe we don't. 

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DC snow stats broken down by month since 1981. Do we break a 26 year streak of no back to back climo+? If any year stands a chance this seems like a good one. I thought the same thing in 10-11 though....i was almost certain...oops. Not apples to apples in some important ways wrt enso but still, it doesn't come easy to say the least.

 

 

 

attachicon.gifdcsnow.JPG

 

While DC probably got unlucky in the context of 2010-2011's pattern, there was always the underlying fact that a pretty potent La Nina might screw up the winter there. That same element isn't present this winter.

 

But we've still seen DCA stuggle in weak Ninos as well...but usually to a lesser extent than La Ninas. I also felt DCA under-performed a bit in Feb 2007 and Feb 2005 (esp late month). Those patterns were pretty ripe for good snow, but they didn't really produce. The cold was impressive in Feb 2007 though.

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While DC probably got unlucky in the context of 2010-2011's pattern, there was always the underlying fact that a pretty potent La Nina might screw up the winter there. That same element isn't present this winter.

 

But we've still seen DCA stuggle in weak Ninos as well...but usually to a lesser extent than La Ninas. I also felt DCA under-performed a bit in Feb 2007 and Feb 2005 (esp late month). Those patterns were pretty ripe for good snow, but they didn't really produce. The cold was impressive in Feb 2007 though.

 

Those years were painful in some ways. Feb 2007 was decent in my yard + a very memorable sleet storm that froze like concrete for days. My friend's wife is an xray tech and their office was standing room only for 3 days straight from people sledding on that stuff. lol. 

 

Dec and Jan of that winter were absolutely miserable. That monster vortex in AK just flooded us with pac air like a runaway hose for weeks on end. It was an amazing flip for Feb though. No doubt about that. And if we had that pattern again we could certainly capitalize.

 

04-05 started out looking ok but just things just couldn't get right for us down here.  

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Those years were painful in some ways. Feb 2007 was decent in my yard + a very memorable sleet storm that froze like concrete for days. My friend's wife is an xray tech and their office was standing room only for 3 days straight from people sledding on that stuff. lol. 

 

Dec and Jan of that winter were absolutely miserable. That monster vortex in the Pac just flooded us with pac air like a runaway hose for weeks on end. It was an amazing flip for Feb though. No doubt about that. And if we had that pattern again we could certainly capitalize.

 

04-05 started out looking ok but just things just couldn't get right for us down here.  

 

 

i thought 2/05 and 2/07 were fine especially the latter...in the city I got 8" in 3 events in Feb 2005 and 9" in 4 events in Feb 2007...It isn't like we totally got screwed...but ORH is right that there was missed potential..

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i thought 2/05 and 2/07 were fine especially the latter...in the city I got 8" in 3 events in Feb 2005 and 9" in 4 events in Feb 2007...It isn't like we totally got screwed...but ORH is right that there was missed potential..

 

I went back and edited my post. I meant AK vortex. I'm sure you knew what I was talking about. 

 

The Febs were fine but I hate getting stuck in the dreaded 6 week pattern of hell waiting for it to come around. By the time Feb comes around the end of the season is basically already in GFS lalaland. March last year may skew some people opinions about March being a winter month. It can be once a decade or 2. Last year was one for the books on every level but they usually only tease at best and underperform. 

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Look at the difference in the NPAC in October in strong -NAO DJF ninos vs +NAO DJF ninos....stark.....seeing a neg height anomaly in the NPAC in Oct is pretty important for winter blocking....I want to see it even if it is in the GOA

 

attachicon.gifposnaooct.png

 

attachicon.gifbleh.png

 

 

 

 

 

attachicon.gifnegnaooct.png

attachicon.gifyes.png

 

 

Those two composite for October also seem to teleconnect with Eurasian snow cover...the cruddy winter composite in October has high heights anomalies in the area you want to see rapid snow cover expansion in October where the good winter composite is the opposite.

 

But that's an interesting comparison of the Aleutian Low in each scenario...was way less defined in the bad years. You can see the inverse correlation on the NAO too...but that correlation has been poor in the most recent years.

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Those two composite for October also seem to teleconnect with Eurasian snow cover...the cruddy winter composite in October has high heights anomalies in the area you want to see rapid snow cover expansion in October where the good winter composite is the opposite.

 

But that's an interesting comparison of the Aleutian Low in each scenario...was way less defined in the bad years. You can see the inverse correlation on the NAO too...but that correlation has been poor in the most recent years.

 

good eye re: eurasian snowcover

 

the order of the maps is probably confusing but the NAO was basically my point...in ninos..getting a negative height anomaly in fall in the NPAC led to blocking in DJF....without it, blocking sucked..

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good eye re: eurasian snowcover

 

the order of the maps is probably confusing but the NAO was basically my point...in ninos..getting a negative height anomaly in fall in the NPAC led to blocking in DJF....without it, blocking sucked..

 

 

I believe wx_midwest showed this a few years ago too on the main board. I believe he used the North Pacific Index to show it...but its essentially measuring the same thing. In El Ninos, it has a huge correlation to blocking if the NPI comes in with a favored Aleution low pattern.

 

 

I actually just found the thread:

 

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/111462-the-october-np-index-can-be-used-as-a-tool-to-forecast-the-nao-phase-during-el-nino-winters/

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new SSTA numbers reach +.5C in 3.4 and +.7 in 4

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

It's a late bloomer for sure but things are looking good right now. The Pac pattern for the next 2 weeks looks pretty favorable overall.

I'm not at my pc but I was looking at late bloomers earlier today. It's a mixed bag. One thing that stood out was Dec was pretty bad for snow more often than not. However, I'm not really seeing any good individual analogs so the Dec ob may not mean much if anything.

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It's a late bloomer for sure but things are looking good right now. The Pac pattern for the next 2 weeks looks pretty favorable overall.

I'm not at my pc but I was looking at late bloomers earlier today. It's a mixed bag. One thing that stood out was Dec was pretty bad for snow more often than not. However, I'm not really seeing any good individual analogs so the Dec ob may not mean much if anything.

at OBX this week for a late summer vacation so I have nothing to do but drool over Howard's forecast, dream, and post maps

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call me old fashion or an oldster, but I still like the Unysis SSTA map

sst_anom.gif

 

Arrggg!!  Those Unisys maps make me want to pull my hair out!!  The old version paints anomalies close to zero light blue or blue-green.  The new version goes to yellow at anything over 0.  One looks like everything's cold, the other looks like everything's warm.  You can pick out relative anomalies and intense anomalies pretty well.  But God forbid if you're trying to examine areas with weak anomalies.

 

:unsure:  :unsure:  :unsure:

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some DCA snowfall facts...

Last 60 years number of times...19 of 60 were below 10"...34 of 60 were less than 15"...26 of 60 were over 15"...13 of 60 were over 25"...

..0.1"-..4.9".....9

..5.0"-..9.9"...10

10.0"-14.9"...15

15.0"-19.9".....7

20.0"-24.9".....6

25.0"-29.9".....3

30.0"-++++...10

................................................

least snowiest years...

0.1" in 1972-73

0.1" in 1997-98

2.0" in 2011-12

2.2" in 1975-76

3.1" in 2012-13 only normal snowfall year of the ten in KNYC...

3.2" in 2001-02

3.4" in 1949-50

4.5" in 1980-81

4.9" in 2007-08

4.9" in 1958-59

........................................

 

 

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Arrggg!!  Those Unisys maps make me want to pull my hair out!!  The old version paints anomalies close to zero light blue or blue-green.  The new version goes to yellow at anything over 0.  One looks like everything's cold, the other looks like everything's warm.  You can pick out relative anomalies and intense anomalies pretty well.  But God forbid if you're trying to examine areas with weak anomalies.

 

:unsure:  :unsure:  :unsure:

which is why I'll stick with the old one

when they (water temps) look warm, then you know it's decently above normal

the new version would be OK if they had a strongly contrasting color for 0-+.5C

 

but, in all fairness, SSTA east of Enso 3.4 of  this burgeoning NINO are unusually "choppy"; typically, much more uniform temps

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some DCA snowfall facts...

Last 60 years number of times...19 of 60 were below 10"...34 of 60 were less than 15"...26 of 60 were over 15"...13 of 60 were over 25"...

..0.1"-..4.9".....9

..5.0"-..9.9"...10

10.0"-14.9"...15

15.0"-19.9".....7

20.0"-24.9".....6

25.0"-29.9".....3

30.0"-++++...10

................................................

least snowiest years...

0.1" in 1972-73

0.1" in 1997-98

2.0" in 2011-12

2.2" in 1975-76

3.1" in 2012-13 only normal snowfall year of the ten in KNYC...

3.2" in 2001-02

3.4" in 1949-50

4.5" in 1980-81

4.9" in 2007-08

4.9" in 1958-59

........................................

Thanks for the stats.

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I believe wx_midwest showed this a few years ago too on the main board. I believe he used the North Pacific Index to show it...but its essentially measuring the same thing. In El Ninos, it has a huge correlation to blocking if the NPI comes in with a favored Aleution low pattern.

 

 

I actually just found the thread:

 

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/111462-the-october-np-index-can-be-used-as-a-tool-to-forecast-the-nao-phase-during-el-nino-winters/

 

..nice find...kind of remembering that one now...looks like I had a few posts in there...loved Hart's personal datasets....

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Too add to Matt's post I pulled all warm neutral through mod nino years and looked at Oct&Nov and how it relates to the Dec AO. Nov had the strongest signal for +AO Decembers but Oct&Nov was very telling for -AO Decembers. If we want a fair chance at snow in Dec and a more door to door winter season we need to get started with a -AO and not waste away early on (stating the obvious of course). 

 

Just like in Matt's post, the biggest sign of -AO Decembers (and winters on the whole) is the the Aleutian low. Seems once it gets started it doesn't want to quit. It's a classic feature of productive Ninos so the odds favor it happening but not nearly as much with weak vs mod Ninos. 

 

Oct & Nov with +AO Decembers:

 

post-2035-0-56770200-1410879673_thumb.jp

 

 

post-2035-0-84645200-1410879711_thumb.jp

 

 

Oct & Nov with -AO Decembers:

 

post-2035-0-08931000-1410879738_thumb.jp

 

post-2035-0-95586700-1410879776_thumb.jp

 

 

And the subsequent Decembers:

 

 

post-2035-0-00540300-1410879810_thumb.jp

 

 

post-2035-0-51364300-1410879825_thumb.jp

 

 

I looked back through snowfall data on these years as well. The + years averaged 12" with a max of 20" and the - years averaged 24" with an obvious max of 56". 

 

Almost all the Decembers in the + years sucked for snowfall. Many were virtually snowless (as should be the case with no blocking). Results are mixed in the - years but certainly more productive overall. 

 

The snowfall data overall for the 2 sets is pretty mixed. The last 4 years in the - set were great but most of the early ones sucked. Either way, I'll take my chances with a -AO December any year regardless of enso. 

 

Looking at this data seems that December could be an easy call for temps by late Oct. Feb almost always tries to be good in Nino years so below normal temps for that month is an easy call (if there is suck a thing). January will usually follow December's lead. At least the first half anyways. 

 

Let's hope December breaks in our favor and let the chips fall. 

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Too add to Matt's post I pulled all warm neutral through mod nino years and looked at Oct&Nov and how it relates to the Dec AO. Nov had the strongest signal for +AO Decembers but Oct&Nov was very telling for -AO Decembers. If we want a fair chance at snow in Dec and a more door to door winter season we need to get started with a -AO and not waste away early on (stating the obvious of course). 

 

Just like in Matt's post, the biggest sign of -AO Decembers (and winters on the whole) is the the Aleutian low. Seems once it gets started it doesn't want to quit. It's a classic feature of productive Ninos so the odds favor it happening but not nearly as much with weak vs mod Ninos. 

 

Oct & Nov with +AO Decembers:

 

attachicon.gifOctpositive.JPG

 

 

attachicon.gifNovpositive.JPG

 

 

Oct & Nov with -AO Decembers:

 

attachicon.gifOctnegative.JPG

 

attachicon.gifNovnegative.JPG

 

 

And the subsequent Decembers:

 

 

attachicon.gifDecpositive.JPG

 

 

attachicon.gifDecnegative.JPG

 

 

I looked back through snowfall data on these years as well. The + years averaged 12" with a max of 20" and the - years averaged 24" with an obvious max of 56". 

 

Almost all the Decembers in the + years sucked for snowfall. Many were virtually snowless (as should be the case with no blocking). Results are mixed in the - years but certainly more productive overall. 

 

The snowfall data overall for the 2 sets is pretty mixed. The last 4 years in the - set were great but most of the early ones sucked. Either way, I'll take my chances with a -AO December any year regardless of enso. 

 

Looking at this data seems that December could be an easy call for temps by late Oct. Feb almost always tries to be good in Nino years so below normal temps for that month is an easy call (if there is suck a thing). January will usually follow December's lead. At least the first half anyways. 

 

Let's hope December breaks in our favor and let the chips fall. 

 

Interesting, and it seems like some of the models are advertising the Aleutian low as well. Just a matter of timing I suppose.

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Interesting, and it seems like some of the models are advertising the Aleutian low as well. Just a matter of timing I suppose.

 

It's nice to see strong agreement with an aleutian low and lower heights in the pdo region in general over the next week or 10 days but it doesn't really mean much this early in the game and the persistence of such a pattern is questionable at best. Latest ensemble guidance and euro weeklies favor breaking down the pattern before the month is out. Euro weeklies show more members favoring a return to ridging in that region going into early oct. Not amplified ridging or anything. Probably a sign the ensembles are divided with a slight hedge towards higher heights. 

 

Fall patterns can flip around pretty easily as wavelengths get shorter so I wouldn't read too much into this post. There will be some clarity to early signals in a month. Right now it's not worth over thinking. 

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I posted this on the main board enso thread. I think we can all live with this. It's not even that far from getting into mod territory. Going to be tough for tri-monthlies at this point but I wouldn't be all that surprised if 3.4 makes it to 1.2+ for a period during late fall/early winter. 

 

nino34Mon.gif

 

CFSv2 forecasts for the other Nino regions definitely show 3.4 being warmest relative to its neighbors. Nino 1-2 is forecast to drop to close to neutral. Hardly a bad thing. All we can do is watch and wait.

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I posted this on the main board enso thread. I think we can all live with this. It's not even that far from getting into mod territory. Going to be tough for tri-monthlies at this point but I wouldn't be all that surprised if 3.4 makes it to 1.2+ for a period during late fall/early winter. 

 

nino34Mon.gif

 

CFSv2 forecasts for the other Nino regions definitely show 3.4 being warmest relative to its neighbors. Nino 1-2 is forecast to drop to close to neutral. Hardly a bad thing. All we can do is watch and wait.

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idk Bob, if we're going to take the CFS2 SSTA forecast, isn't it hard to discount the rest of its forecasts (temp/precip)?

idk the answer, but the CFS2 continues to paint an ugly winter forecast with a stubborn low south of the GOA that pumps warm, moist air into the lower 48

and the CFS2 scares me because it did pretty well last winter in general and was darn good mid and late winter, but prior years prove it's inconsistent

at this point, I'm hoping it's just misplacing the low too far south in the PAC

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