Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Wet spring and summer coming up ? Bring on the Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 lets do it---2 KU's next year. incredibly CFS2 has been pretty consistent with the NINO call thru September for 4 whole days now (Wally!), so it's starting to look like a lock the trend is our straw, and I'm grasping for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 incredibly CFS2 has been pretty consistent with the NINO call thru September for 4 whole days now (Wally!), so it's starting to look like a lock the trend is our straw, and I'm grasping for it Also look at the gulf of Alaska...may have a positive pdo with a niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 -2, +1, normal....12-14" at DCA, 24-27" at IAD 68-69, 63-64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Do people realize we are basically in a Nina now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 how did i miss this disaster of a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 how did i miss this disaster of a thread This should be pinned . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This will be the most active thread in july/aug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 63-64 is my #1 analog for next year if we go mod+ nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 This will be the most active thread in july/aug Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Assuming we go Niño, looking at the upper atmosphere (QBO), tropical AAM/PDO, and solar activity, I think my top analogs are 1965-66, 1968-69. The fact that they're all very similar gives me some level of confidence: 1965-66 1968-69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 +4 +4 +4 +4 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 If I dont get a HECS next winter, I will consider it a failure...I'm done with 8" events,....I dont care if I only get 25" for the winter...I want a storm that dumps at least 14" IMBY, and preferably 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 +4 +4 +4 +4 3-6" Party pooper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 +4 +4 +4 +4 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 If I dont get a HECS next winter, I will consider it a failure...I'm done with 8" events,....I dont care if I only get 25" for the winter...I want a storm that dumps at least 14" IMBY, and preferably 18"+ I want 15 6" snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 2, 2014 Share Posted April 2, 2014 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sea-temp.php?level=eq&begmonth=1&begday=1&begyear=2014&endmonth=3&endday=31&endyear=2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 3, 2014 Author Share Posted April 3, 2014 If I dont get a HECS next winter, I will consider it a failure...I'm done with 8" events,....I dont care if I only get 25" for the winter...I want a storm that dumps at least 14" IMBY, and preferably 18"+ we need an event that starts saturday night and ends monday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 we need an event that starts saturday night and ends monday afternoon We had one last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 3, 2014 Share Posted April 3, 2014 I want 15 6" snows Would you be ok with 6 15" snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Nino is heating up as most know..probably won't be linear, but it's coming...hoping for a strong event, or high end moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Would you be ok with 6 15" snows? Would I have a choice? Seriously though, I'd rather have 16, 5" events. Pretty, last well, easy cleanup. Just think, that would be a 5" snow every 6 days from December 1 through March 6. How awesome would that be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Woah. Told you guys 97-98 is top analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Are people still dismissing the idea of a strong Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Would I have a choice? Seriously though, I'd rather have 16, 5" events. Pretty, last well, easy cleanup. Just think, that would be a 5" snow every 6 days from December 1 through March 6. How awesome would that be? 5" snows are boring. I'll take a 30" HECS on top of 1" of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Are people still dismissing the idea of a strong Nino? Nobody is outright dismissing it from what I've seen. It's tough to get a tri-monthly 2C+ though. We may have a peak of 2C+ but we just won't know for a while how it shakes out over 3+ months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Let's assume we are in a for a solid, basin-wide El Niño with a full-blown -QBO throughout the middle-lower stratosphere. There are some amazing winters in the dataset; but, it relies heavily on the state of the sun. When a solar minimum accompanied that combination, you get 4 noteworthy years: 09-10, 86-87, 76-77 and 65-66. However, in the other -QBO years, it becomes a giant cluster. There are "in-the-middle" and solar maximum -QBO El Niño years that vary widely and have many other factors that seem to be just as important. Whether by chance or not, many of these were affected by another major variable...91-92, e.g., had a Pinatubo-enhanced PV state. Some other years: 51-52, 58-59, 68-69, 72-73 (left out the mixed signaled QBO years). All of these had intraseasonal shifts in something big that caused them to alter drastically...68-69, by chance, had a significant reduction in the solar factor late autumn, which heightened the background state of the late 60s "NAO" to bring a significantly -NAO. It was so strong, it trumped a pretty horrible Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Let's assume we are in a for a solid, basin-wide El Niño with a full-blown -QBO throughout the middle-lower stratosphere. There are some amazing winters in the dataset; but, it relies heavily on the state of the sun. When a solar minimum accompanied that combination, you get 4 noteworthy years: 09-10, 86-87, 76-77 and 65-66. However, in the other -QBO years, it becomes a giant cluster. There are "in-the-middle" and solar maximum -QBO El Niño years that vary widely and have many other factors that seem to be just as important. Whether by chance or not, many of these were affected by another major variable...91-92, e.g., had a Pinatubo-enhanced PV state. Some other years: 51-52, 58-59, 68-69, 72-73 (left out the mixed signaled QBO years). All of these had intraseasonal shifts in something big that caused them to alter drastically...68-69, by chance, had a significant reduction in the solar factor late autumn, which heightened the background state of the late 60s "NAO" to bring a significantly -NAO. It was so strong, it trumped a pretty horrible Pacific.Gun to head....what's your hunch?My simpleton guess is we peak early and fade. N PAC will have some sort of unusual transition early winter because the warm pool caused by the anchored -EPO this winter/spring will take time to go cold and allow a more standard Nino cool pool / persistent LP in the same area. It's a long ways out and the -epo effects could be largely erased by late summer / early fall. But if they aren't it makes things interesting. I'd also hedge towards a more -nao based circ overall. Some loose analogs like 64-65, 97-98 (this year sucked for reasons other than blocking. The -nao didn't have a cold source to work with), and even 57-58 as a very loose enso analog. We haven't had any nao help since Dec-Jan of 10-11. Things tend to even out over time. Just like the PV residing over Eurasia for years. It came back with a vengeance this year. The weenie goggles I tend to wear for long long range stuff would like to think that the PV will spend another year or 2 over here. Matt and I have kicked around ideas that this winter may in fact be the beginning of a string much like the 60's held for us. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Here's the good news: the combination of our background states with Arctic Sea Ice, stratospheric stuff, ocean cycles and snow cover has put us, long-term wise, in a background that favors more blocking. So, if the sun decides to decline, like 68-69, during the autumn/early winter, it would likely lead to a strong -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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