mitchnick Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 click on January once you click on the link http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-summary.shtml#tabs=Pacific-Ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Some cooling taking shape in the west pac and by the looks of the height patterns next couple weeks it should continue. The GOA warm anoms are going to be tested coming up as well. The vortex in the bearing sea is progged to move se and keep a large area of lower heights/temps in the goa region for 5+ days. This 5 day mean is interesting. Would support the +PDO to possibly start re-establishing itself but at the same time it would make a dent in the +anoms in the GOA region. Personally, I don't care about the GOA warm pool nearly as much as having a +PDO going into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Some cooling taking shape in the west pac and by the looks of the height patterns next couple weeks it should continue. The GOA warm anoms are going to be tested coming up as well. The vortex in the bearing sea is progged to move se and keep a large area of lower heights/temps in the goa region for 5+ days. This 5 day mean is interesting. Would support the +PDO to possibly start re-establishing itself but at the same time it would make a dent in the +anoms in the GOA region. Personally, I don't care about the GOA warm pool nearly as much as having a +PDO going into winter. pac5daymean.JPG Interesting, although that looks scarily similar to the current CPC forecast for DJF....which would be bad, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Interesting, although that looks scarily similar to the current CPC forecast for DJF....which would be bad, right? El Nino's generally have low pressure in the NE pac region through the season. It's a classic feature of mod nino's. In that type of config we live and die by blocking. We need the polar jet to be displaced by a -ao/nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 +PDO is best for east coast, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Still early, but CFSv2's map for October is flat out ugly. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2mProb.20140908.201410.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Still early, but CFSv2's map for October is flat out ugly. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2mProb.20140908.201410.gif and then there's this CFS2 map for OCT http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 With a 1030+hp north of the lakes, that's all snow. Boxing day miller A! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 With a 1030+hp north of the lakes, that's all snow. Boxing day miller A! 8-12 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 +PDO is best for east coast, correct? for DC metro, yes..I can't speak to 40N, though it is undoubtedly less of a factor for them..we are about twice as likely to get a big snow winter with a +PDO than a -PDO...doesn't mean we can't get a big winter with a -PDO, but we need a great atlantic to do it....here is the composite of big -PDO winters since 1950...there have been 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Still early, but CFSv2's map for October is flat out ugly. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2mProb.20140908.201410.gif 1) Of course, the CFSv2 for this Oct. could be totally wrong. 2) If it turns out to be pretty close to reality (warm Oct.), consider these seven years (three of them, 1900, 1939, 1963, being non-strong El Nino) that had a warm Oct. and a chilly to very cold winter (idea is that correlation between Oct. and DJF not strong): 1900, 1939, 1962, 1963, 1995, 2010, and 2013 Warm October: Followed by cold winter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 1) Of course, the CFSv2 for this Oct. could be totally wrong. 2) If it turns out to be pretty close to reality (warm Oct.), consider these seven years (three of them El Nino) that had a warm Oct. and a chilly to very cold winter (idea is that correlation between Oct. and DJF not strong): 1900, 1939, 1962, 1963, 1995, 2010, and 2013 Warm October: Warm OctPrecedingColdDJF.png Followed by cold winter: ColdDJFFollowingWarmOct.png Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Still early, but CFSv2's map for October is flat out ugly. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2mProb.20140908.201410.gif That's not going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 That's not going to verify. One of the runs this month will verify. The CFS is pretty good at spitting out every possibility for each upcoming month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 That's not going to verify. What happened to the Hadley Cells being at 60N? I can smell a blowtorch fall from a mile away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Why would folks want a colder than normal October? We aren't getting snow in October down this way. If it wants to be warm and pleasant as the leaves turn, fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Why would folks want a colder than normal October? We aren't getting snow in October down this way. If it wants to be warm and pleasant as the leaves turn, fine by me. The only thing we should care about during october (other than enso/pdo status) is the rate of snow cover increase in siberia. I hope all the snow and cold is locked up there the whole month and we roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Damn straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 I don't mind if we roast, I just don't anything higher than 79 degrees or 50 degree dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 What happened to the Hadley Cells being at 60N? I can smell a blowtorch fall from a mile away. Almost impossible for the entirety of North America to torch simultaneously. Obviously that doesn't preclude us from the toaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 One of the runs this month will verify. The CFS is pretty good at spitting out every possibility for each upcoming month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 New Euro (seasonal) looks colder than average, with a fat ridge over the Arctic and Alaska, but weaker with the -NAO. Also a big negative over/south of the Aleutians, as is typical of a Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 New Euro (seasonal) looks colder than average, with a fat ridge over the Arctic and Alaska, but weaker with the -NAO. Also a big negative over/south of the Aleutians, as is typical of a Niño.SNE Dream scenario then lol. We just need to wait until we get closer. Anyways I want a warm October thru maybe Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 One of the runs this month will verify. The CFS is pretty good at spitting out every possibility for each upcoming month. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 I hope people only look at the CFSv2 for amusement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Good snow in Calgary today. Need a poll on what date the first blizzard happens. Second will be in Feb.. duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 That's not going to verify. It's not a temp anomaly forecast. It's just a probability forecast for above/below normal temps, so it can't "verify," per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 wooo whoooo......snow on the Intellicast Radar in Canada into Montana! http://beta.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=default®ion=SHD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 It's not a temp anomaly forecast. It's just a probability forecast for above/below normal temps, so it can't "verify," per se. The temperature/geopotential height anomaly forecast looks very odd on both the Euro Seasonal and the CFS. Euro seasonal has +anoms from AK, to CA, to FL, to ME, to the Pole. Hard to imagine how that could occur. Euro seasonal is going for a 2006-07 redux in some respects. There seems to be a consensus on a persistent -AO/+PNA/+NAO type look in the ensemble mean, with a stronger than avg STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Snowing in Calgary again. Building the snowpack up. https://twitter.com/BrandonCNN/status/509719851565592577 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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