Winter 2014-2015 Thread

[AlaskaETC]

I just feel like a bunch of you long range types are getting ready to hit the winter cancel button.

I'm ready to hit the Winter Boom button.

[Bob Chill]

I just feel like a bunch of you long range types are getting ready to hit the winter cancel button.

Nah, just being realistic. I remember where I live and last year was a mega fluke on so many levels for us. There's a lot of snow and cold talk for the east going on right now and it's really premature imo. If we were moving into mod-nino status right now I would be more optimistic in lr discussions but we aren't even close so it's anyone's guess what happens. I'll wait until Dec before cancelling Dec.

[mitchnick]

this SSTA map actually shows more signs of hope than the Coral Reef Map that is often posted

some decent spots of 1C+ on it

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssn&inv=0&t=cur

[Deck Pic]

Isn't a strongly negative QBO bad though?

 

No...in  neutrals/ninos,. strong easterly QBO's have greenland blocks.....strong +QBO hurt us last year...

 

91-92 was exception...but there are other mitigating factors that winter...we want it strong....

[Deck Pic]

I just feel like a bunch of you long range types are getting ready to hit the winter cancel button.

 

why...good chance we'll be cold and snowy

[ORH_wxman]

Nah, just being realistic. I remember where I live and last year was a mega fluke on so many levels for us. There's a lot of snow and cold talk for the east going on right now and it's really premature imo. If we were moving into mod-nino status right now I would be more optimistic in lr discussions but we aren't even close so it's anyone's guess what happens. I'll wait until Dec before cancelling Dec.

 

 

A weaker Nino would actually make cold for the east a more bullish prospect...however, for DC snowfall, you'd definitely want the Nino stronger. There's still a shot this goes low end moderate...the subsurface warmth has rejuvenated in the central regions pretty well.

[Bob Chill]

A weaker Nino would actually make cold for the east a more bullish prospect...however, for DC snowfall, you'd definitely want the Nino stronger. There's still a shot this goes low end moderate...the subsurface warmth has rejuvenated in the central regions pretty well.

I'm not pessimistic by any means. Just kinda indifferent in some ways. We had a false signal last year with a Nino and this year has consistently been just out of reach of our fingertips. But I agree, we are much better off now at this time than last year. We had already written off any chance by September and there is plenty of time left for improvement if things break our way without taking steps backwards again.

Our last 2 weak nino's were stinkers for the most part in both the cold and snow dept. Definitely not saying that weak nino's are inherently bad here just that there is some recent history that isn't rosey. Feb 2007 saved that winter but the first half of 04-05 and 06-07 were toasty. Both featured a stout +AO in Dec that lasted well into Jan so the front 2/3rds of the winters sucked down this way. I'm not saying I expect the same at all this year regardless of Enso. It's just an important piece of our puzzle down here and something we have no way of predicting for a while.

[GaWx]

Our last 2 weak nino's were stinkers for the most part in both the cold and snow dept. Definitely not saying that weak nino's are inherently bad here just that there is some recent history that isn't rosey. Feb 2007 saved that winter but the first half of 04-05 and 06-07 were toasty. Both featured a stout +AO in Dec that lasted well into Jan so the front 2/3rds of the winters sucked down this way. I'm not saying I expect the same at all this year regardless of Enso. It's just an important piece of our puzzle down here and something we have no way of predicting for a while.

 

 For the SE US (and much of the E US) , a weak Nino is clearly the best opportunity on average for a cold winter. I'm not talking about snowfall. I'm talking good old fashioned cold winters. If you were to look at a DJF temperature anomaly map for the composite of weak Ninos vs. other ENSO, the weak Nino category would clearly be the coldest. The stronger the Nino, the better the chance that the subtropical jet is strong enough to modify the extreme cold. Also, just as is the case for any ENSO state, other factors are  very important: -NAO and +PDO. Without those two, it can easily be mild with a weak Nino. From my perspective, that's likely largely what made 2004-5 and DJ of 2006-7 mild.

 I can't find anything that is as cold as the DJF composite for weak Nino, +PDO, and -NAO. Any other ENSO with +PDO and -NAO hasn't been as cold on average.

 For the SE US, weak Ninos do well on average with regard to wintry precip. However, sometimes the weak Nino is so cold that overall precip. is below average (NW flow dominating). However, even so, wintry precip. can still be at or above normal due to the cold.

 The classic/very cold winters of 1976-7, 1977-8 and 1969-70 were all weak Ninos with a +PDO and -NAO both averaged over DJF.

[Bob Chill]

GaWx, that decade was remarkable from a cold/blocking standpoint in the US. Looking at the composite anomalies, the coldest anoms were centered in the OV/MW (and man was it cold). In some ways we all froze east of the rockies those years.

The 5 other weak Nino's since 1950 were pretty warm. The 3 weak ones in the 50's were above normal for all of us even using the 81-10 climo data.

If we break it down geographically, mod ninos seems to center the lowest temp departures through the SE/MA compared to other regions but they typically aren't impressive. 2010-11 was an interesting case for a Nina. Extreme blocking did a good job pushing cold far south but the storm track was typical Nina crap which neither of us prefer.

I'm not nearly as familiar with your climo though and haven't dug in that much. Just tossing some thoughts and obs. I suppose the short story is we just don't have enough data to draw easy conclusions. For each good weak Nino there is a crappy one to offset it and there aren't very many to pick from.

[GaWx]

GaWx, that decade was remarkable from a cold/blocking standpoint in the US. Looking at the composite anomalies, the coldest anoms were centered in the OV/MW (and man was it cold). In some ways we all froze east of the rockies those years.

The 5 other weak Nino's since 1950 were pretty warm. The 3 weak ones in the 50's were above normal for all of us even using the 81-10 climo data.

If we break it down geographically, mod ninos seems to center the lowest temp departures through the SE/MA compared to other regions but they typically aren't impressive. 2010-11 was an interesting case for a Nina. Extreme blocking did a good job pushing cold far south but the storm track was typical Nina crap which neither of us prefer.

I'm not nearly as familiar with your climo though and haven't dug in that much. Just tossing some thoughts and obs. I suppose the short story is we just don't have enough data to draw easy conclusions. For each good weak Nino there is a crappy one to offset it and there aren't very many to pick from.

 

 As mentioned despite the +PDO, 2004-5 and 2006-7 were dominated by a +NAO though it went pretty solidly -NAO in Feb. of '07. Not coincidentally (imo), Feb. of '07 was a quite cold month. The early 50's weak Ninos all had a -PDO averaged DJF. The 58-59 weak Nino, which did have a +PDO/-NAO in DJ, was cold overall in DJ. Dec, itself, was downright VERY cold. However, Feb was a bit mild. Then again, Feb. had a -PDO/+NAO. No wonder Feb was mild despite the weak Nino.

 So, I still maintain that if we can get a weak Nino along with a +PDO/-NAO averaged over DJF, the winter will very likely average quite cold for the SE US and much of the E US. I think that a weak Nino peak this fall/winter is most likely though a high end neutral positive and low end moderate Nino are decent possibilities. I think that the PDO will likely average +. The key will be getting the -NAO imo.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I'm not pessimistic by any means. Just kinda indifferent in some ways. We had a false signal last year with a Nino and this year has consistently been just out of reach of our fingertips. But I agree, we are much better off now at this time than last year. We had already written off any chance by September and there is plenty of time left for improvement if things break our way without taking steps backwards again.

Our last 2 weak nino's were stinkers for the most part in both the cold and snow dept. Definitely not saying that weak nino's are inherently bad here just that there is some recent history that isn't rosey. Feb 2007 saved that winter but the first half of 04-05 and 06-07 were toasty. Both featured a stout +AO in Dec that lasted well into Jan so the front 2/3rds of the winters sucked down this way. I'm not saying I expect the same at all this year regardless of Enso. It's just an important piece of our puzzle down here and something we have no way of predicting for a while.

Good news is 04/05 and 06/07 did not have the negative QBO (post stratification) and stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation.

If I had to make a call now, I'd go with January as the month for a deep -AO response, which is suggested by the analogs I'm looking at.

[Kory]

Good news is 04/05 and 06/07 did not have the negative QBO (post stratification) and stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation.

If I had to make a call now, I'd go with January as the month for a deep -AO response, which is suggested by the analogs I'm looking at.

So 04/05 isn't a good analog?  I looked at a few different factors and it looks similar to what we're expecting this year, but I'm sure it's more complex than just the PDO, ENSO state, etc.  

 

By the way, what is a Brewer Dobson circulation?  

[StudentOfClimatology]

So 04/05 isn't a good analog? I looked at a few different factors and it looks similar to what we're expecting this year, but I'm sure it's more complex than just the PDO, ENSO state, etc.

By the way, what is a Brewer Dobson circulation?

I like 03/04 better than 04/05.

BDC transports O^3 into the polar stratosphere. Hard to get a good ENSO analog with wildly differing stratospheric boundary conditions, hence the importance of a good QBO match

[MDstorm]

Why is warming more likely than not?

In no particular order:

Models (esp JAMSTEC and Euro),

Gulf of Alaska warmth should tend to cool off niño 1+2 relative to 3+4 as fall progresses,

Currently in downwelling Kelvin wave phase, Persistently negative SOI over the last month which indicates increased pressures over Darwin and lower pressures toward the dateline (this should promote warmer waters west of dateline moving eastward into 3+4 region as trade winds decrease.

Subsurface looking better recently,

Wishful thinking.

MDstorm

[North Balti Zen]

why...good chance we'll be cold and snowy

 

I wasn't making my own prediction - just observing that the chatter from you all who know a lot more about reading tea leaves in the long range is not all that rosy at this point.

[WxUSAF]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

 

The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

During August 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Niño indices warmed during the month with values of +0.5^oC in Niño-4, +0.4^oC in Niño-3.4, +0.4^oC in Niño-3, and +0.8^oC in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180^o-100^oW) also increased during the month (Fig. 3) as above-average subsurface temperatures developed across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). This warming is associated with the downwelling phase of an equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave triggered in July by low-level westerly wind anomalies. Westerly wind anomalies continued in the central and eastern part of the basin early in August, but weakened by the end of the month. Enhanced easterly upper-level wind anomalies have prevailed during much of the month, and the Southern Oscillation Index has been negative. However, convective cloudiness remained generally near average over most of the region, except for below average cloudiness observed across the central and western Pacific (Fig. 5). The lack of a coherent atmospheric El Niño pattern and near-average SSTs in the central Pacific indicate a continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Most of the models continue to predict El Niño to develop during September-November and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A majority of models and the multi-model averages favor a weak El Niño. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during September-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5^oC and 0.9^oC). The chance of El Niño is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA�s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forumof CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 October 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].

[Supercane]

No...in  neutrals/ninos,. strong easterly QBO's have greenland blocks.....strong +QBO hurt us last year...

 

91-92 was exception...but there are other mitigating factors that winter...we want it strong....

 

Are you sure that +QBO was a bad thing last winter? It seems to me that when ENSO is in a cool state, +QBO is more favorable than -QBO (see 08-09, 10-11, 13-14 vs 05-06, 07-08, 11-12 for recent year comparisons). HM did some writeups about this, showing how +QBO leads to a better PAC pattern during cool ENSO states.

 

What's interesting to me though is it seems during warm ENSO states, the crappiest years tend to have +QBO (94-95, 04-05, 06-07) and the best are usually during a -QBO. I wonder why this is?

[Bob Chill]

I wasn't making my own prediction - just observing that the chatter from you all who know a lot more about reading tea leaves in the long range is not all that rosy at this point.

 

It isn't rosy if we are looking for clear signals. That's why I'm mostly indifferent until things become more clear. 

 

We had a nice +PDO going this summer but it has continuously diminished since. Compare the area east of Japan and south of the Aleutians with this and the plot posted above for 9/1:

 

 

The area of below normal sst anoms has warmed to the point of the PDO basically being neutral right now. A big question is do we go back to where we were or are we moving towards a negative phase for the winter? I'm not sure one can say with confidence one way or the other. I know I sure can't but my knowledge is armchair only but the trend for the last 3 months has been to wrong way for sure.

 

Not all PDO configs are the same. Even if we go negative, the ssta's in the gulf of Alaska are stout so there's that. If they cool and the PDO goes negative then a flag has been raised. If a vortex plants itself in the GOA and there is nothing to offset it like a persistent -nao then the tune changes at our latitude and southward. 

 

Nino's typically have a +PDO config because they interact with each other in some ways. Generally speaking, warm 3.4 regions favor a +PDO state but there are exceptions (51-52,53-54, 63-64,72-73).

 

As GaWx pointed out, Nino's featuring a solid +PDO config are one of the best Pac setups for us. Of course we prefer a mod nino / +PDO at our latitude. Right now at this point in time we have neither. Other things can easily help out during DJF than with a less than favorable enso/pdo regime but they are features that are hard to impossible to predict at long leads. The NAO can't be predicted 2 weeks in advance. There are some correlations with atlantic ssta's and the favored NAO state but accurately using them months in advance is really tough. 

 

The short version of my tldr post is that a wait and see approach is all I got. 

[mitchnick]

".....Oh, the times...they are'a changin'"

                                                   BD

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

[AlaskaETC]

Those are ugly maps.

[Deck Pic]

Are you sure that +QBO was a bad thing last winter? It seems to me that when ENSO is in a cool state, +QBO is more favorable than -QBO (see 08-09, 10-11, 13-14 vs 05-06, 07-08, 11-12 for recent year comparisons). HM did some writeups about this, showing how +QBO leads to a better PAC pattern during cool ENSO states.

 

What's interesting to me though is it seems during warm ENSO states, the crappiest years tend to have +QBO (94-95, 04-05, 06-07) and the best are usually during a -QBO. I wonder why this is?

 

I think +QBO was bad for blocking (we generally are less blocky during neutral/nina anyway)....

 

This has very limited statistical significance given the sample size and all the other influencing factors, but you can see that the stronger +QBO neutral/nino years composite doesn't have a -NAO 

 

 

 

 

 

compare with stronger -QBO neutral/nino years..the height anomalies northeast of Greenland are flipped..

 

[StudentOfClimatology]

Are you sure that +QBO was a bad thing last winter? It seems to me that when ENSO is in a cool state, +QBO is more favorable than -QBO (see 08-09, 10-11, 13-14 vs 05-06, 07-08, 11-12 for recent year comparisons). HM did some writeups about this, showing how +QBO leads to a better PAC pattern during cool ENSO states.

Generally get a more stout ridge over the NPAC in a Niña/+QBO with those poleward antcyclones that result, especially during solar maximum, if we believe the correlations. We had everything go our way last year and met those requirements.

What's interesting to me though is it seems during warm ENSO states, the crappiest years tend to have +QBO (94-95, 04-05, 06-07) and the best are usually during a -QBO. I wonder why this is?

Niño/+QBO/Solar Max can be good (2002-03), but otherwise generally the epic -QBO/Niños tend to dominate during solar min. We've seen what happens when they occur in solar max (1994-95, 1992-93, 1979-80), though Pinatubo was an issue there too.

Hopefully the weak solar max results in a 1968-69 type solution, rather than a 1979-80 type one.

[Smoked]

06z GFS shows some N. Hemisphere snow cover gain over the next couple of weeks. I don't usually track this stuff, so I wouldn't know if it's above or below average for this time of year.

 

Here's one source to follow N. hemisphere snow cover and its departure from normal: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ 

Just click on daily then chart departure. You can also get a picture of how often area's are snow covered by selecting see full climatology. Judging from this source it would seem that the GFS would be supporting above normal snow cover.

[GaWx]

Here's one source to follow N. hemisphere snow cover and its departure from normal: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ 

Just click on daily then chart departure. You can also get a picture of how often area's are snow covered by selecting see full climatology. Judging from this source it would seem that the GFS would be supporting above normal snow cover.

 

 Just to clarify for those who haven't been following these discussions, it is the average snowcover/rate of increase of snowcover in October that seems to matter most per Judah Cohen fwiw.

[T. August]

Here's one source to follow N. hemisphere snow cover and its departure from normal: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/ 

Just click on daily then chart departure. You can also get a picture of how often area's are snow covered by selecting see full climatology. Judging from this source it would seem that the GFS would be supporting above normal snow cover.

Thanks for the link.

[mitchnick]

".....Oh, the times...they are'a changin'"

                                                   BD

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

 

 

Those are ugly maps.

compare them to the maps from just a few weeks ago.....massive change for the better

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me1Mon.html

[AlaskaETC]

compare them to the maps from just a few weeks ago.....massive change for the better

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me1Mon.html

 

Oh, I see, but still, February the only decent month? No thanks..

[mitchnick]

Oh, I see, but still, February the only decent month? No thanks..

normal JAN too

tough crowd   lol

[Supercane]

Generally get a more stout ridge over the NPAC in a Niña/+QBO with those poleward antcyclones that result, especially during solar maximum, if we believe the correlations. We had everything go our way last year and met those requirements.

Niño/+QBO/Solar Max can be good (2002-03), but otherwise generally the epic -QBO/Niños tend to dominate during solar min. We've seen what happens when they occur in solar max (1994-95, 1992-93, 1979-80), though Pinatubo was an issue there too.

Hopefully the weak solar max results in a 1968-69 type solution, rather than a 1979-80 type one.

 

Those 2 winters I bolded had +QBO, not -QBO. Also, 1994-95 was during low solar activity. 

 

2002-03 was good, but the QBO was essentially neutral that winter. Same goes for 2004-05, although the ENSO influence was also much weaker. I could see ENSO and solar activity this winter being similar to 2004-05, but with a solid -QBO I think we can do better.

 

Also, I'd gladly take another 1979-80 here in NC lol.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Those 2 winters I bolded had +QBO, not -QBO. Also, 1994-95 was during low solar activity.

2002-03 was good, but the QBO was essentially neutral that winter. Same goes for 2004-05, although the ENSO influence was also much weaker. I could see ENSO and solar activity this winter being similar to 2004-05, but with a solid -QBO I think we can do better.

Also, I'd gladly take another 1979-80 here in NC lol.

Not if you're looking at 50hpa, which is a far more concrete realm vs 30hpa.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

However, those years had a mature windfield by now and were beginning to decay. We have yet to peak.

2002-03 was a pretty solid +QBO @ 50hpa