AlaskaETC Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 For this winter I'd like a Dec. 2009, a Jan. 1996, a Feb. 2010 and a Mar. 2014. Let me know if you all can make that happen. Would you like an April 1924 with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 For this winter I'd like a Dec. 2009, a Jan. 1996, a Feb. 2010 and a Mar. 2014. Let me know if you all can make that happen. It would be epic... BWI stats December 2009 Total: 20.1" January 1996 Total: 32.6" February 2010 Total: 50" March 2014 Total: 12.1" Snowfall Total: 114.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 It would be epic... BWI stats December 2009 Total: 20.1" January 1996 Total: 32.6" February 2010 Total: 50" March 2014: 12.1" Snowfall Total: 114.8" Add 5 inches in April and I will be set. Give me a Knickerbocker storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Add 5 inches in April and I will be set. Give me a Knickerbocker storm too. If you throw in the snowiest November and April, the total would be over 130" lol. This is where I got the totals- http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwisnow.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 At the same time in 02 and 04 as this year the NE pac was warm. The bigger difference is in the PDO. Both of those years were in or trending towards a +pdo (04 faded and the winter sucked). That's a big wild card this year. I'd trade the warm pool in the NE pac for a +pdo all day long. I think it's quite possible the NE pac loses a good bit of warmth by the time we close out the year. If the wpac stays warm with a -pdo signature it could be troublesome. As matt said already, we have a long ways to go and lots can change. Yeah. A GOA low come October can make that warm pool cool very quickly as it stirs things up. We shall see. Every year it's the same thing. A limited pool of analog years from which we have data means we have no real precedent to compare to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Yeah. A GOA low come October can make that warm pool cool very quickly as it stirs things up. We shall see. Every year it's the same thing. A limited pool of analog years from which we have data means we have no real precedent to compare to. Yea, analogs are only good for general ideas and even then there are plenty of busts. Specifics like where the snow falls and doesn't get's pretty muddy pretty quick. Mod nino's are the only thing that have a pretty strong track record at our latitude. Nina's are annoying because they lack miller A's more often then not. We don't do well will B's often but they can perform case by case so some nina years are much better than others. Give me a big stout -ao to start Dec and I won't care much at all about anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 I don't know if it will mean anything, but it sure looks like arctic sea ice is preparing to bottom out at a pretty decent level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 My winter 2014-15 winter outlook: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-15-outlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 My winter 2014-15 winter outlook: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-15-outlook.html Thanks, a great read...hope you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 SOI has been negative for a full 31 days. Euro weeklies still paint a Modoki like set-up as the fall progresses. Last year, the "expected niño" crapped out about this time of the year. Let's hope this year turns out better niño -wise. It's now September and it's game time. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 SOI has been negative for a full 31 days. Euro weeklies still paint a Modoki like set-up as the fall progresses. Last year, the "expected niño" crapped out about this time of the year. Let's hope this year turns out better niño -wise. It's now September and it's game time. MDstorm Hopefully it wont crap out this year. Should have an updated ENSO outlook from CPC by tomorrow. As of last week the probability of an El Nino developing by winter was reduced somewhat to 65%. But you are right, its game time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 My winter 2014-15 winter outlook: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-15-outlook.html Nice job. Well put together and presented. Good luck. I will be pulling for that to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I don't know that it matters much, but there is no nino at all right now...3.4 is dead...all the warm water is west of the dateline...the PDO region looks hideous....again, not sure it matters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 My winter 2014-15 winter outlook: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-15-outlook.html Thanks for posting...I enjoyed reading it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I don't know that it matters much, but there is no nino at all right now...3.4 is dead...all the warm water is west of the dateline...the PDO region looks hideous....again, not sure it matters... officially, we're are "Oh so close" at +.4C in 3.4 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for ENSO 1&2, 3, 3.4 and 4 27AUG2014 21.3 0.8 25.4 0.4 27.2 0.4 29.2 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I don't want to post this but I will.... When I did the AO data analysis a couple years ago, I pulled the years of all December's with an AO of -1.2 or lower and included ENSO. Weak Nino's have not been friendly to us even when we get some help with blocking. Small dataset but looking at it shows that Nina's and cool neutral have been much better to us than weak warm enso conditions. Luckily there's not enough data to draw any type of conclusions. Just something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 officially, we're are "Oh so close" at +.4C in 3.4 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for ENSO 1&2, 3, 3.4 and 4 27AUG2014 21.3 0.8 25.4 0.4 27.2 0.4 29.2 0.5 it's cooled over the last week..3.4 and 3 will drop on the next release unless it warms again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 it's cooled over the last week..3.4 and 3 will drop on the next release unless it warms again generally speaking, yes, but the all important 3.4 and 4 have ticked up .1C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I don't want to post this but I will.... When I did the AO data analysis a couple years ago, I pulled the years of all December's with an AO of -1.2 or lower and included ENSO. Weak Nino's have not been friendly to us even when we get some help with blocking. Small dataset but looking at it shows that Nina's and cool neutral have been much better to us than weak warm enso conditions. Luckily there's not enough data to draw any type of conclusions. Just something to consider. -AO Dec aonaopnaenso.JPG I will take my chances with ENSO neutral up to a moderate Nino over even a weak Nina, esp if we can get the AO/NAO in our favor. I recall looking at ENSO data for Philadelphia winters a while back(yeah I know its not DC but M.A. in general) and it was dramatic how crapola Ninas are for number of significant snow events and also the biggies(>10") compared to Ninos of any strength. Neutral, weak, moderate, and even strong Nino years were all way better wrt number of events and big events. I think the one oddity was that cool neutral did perform better for big events over warm neutral, but not by much. Thats going by memory so I could be wrong on that. Edit- Weak Nina is actually comparable to ENSO neutral wrt to avg snowfall(both slightly above), but goes well below avg for mod or strong Nina. I got all this info for Philly from a presentation I attended for USCG last fall by one of the Mount Holly mets on the upcoming(last) winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I don't know that it matters much, but there is no nino at all right now...3.4 is dead...all the warm water is west of the dateline...the PDO region looks hideous....again, not sure it matters... If this was early Nov, niño would be in big trouble. However, 3.4 is not really dead and warming is more likely than not over the next 4-8 weeks. This time next month should look a lot better....or not..... Lol. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 If this was early Nov, niño would be in big trouble. However, 3.4 is not really dead and warming is more likely than not over the next 4-8 weeks. This time next month should look a lot better....or not..... Lol. MDstorm Why is warming more likely than not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Why is warming more likely than not? Latest ENSO update from CPC still has it at 65% chance of developing over next 2 months. I guess thats more likely than not lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 today from NE forum, CoastalWx http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43733-2014-2015-winter-outlooks-and-discussions/?p=3045803 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 August QBO down to -21.64 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data so long as it stays negative thru JAN's reading, it should help with blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Warm Sept is fine, want it to carry over to first part of October and then avoid any strong east coast storminess last 1/3 of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 August QBO down to -21.64 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data so long as it stays negative thru JAN's reading, it should help with blocking Isn't a strongly negative QBO bad though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Isn't a strongly negative QBO bad though? maybe, but I doubt it stays that low....in fact, it should be rising by JAN otoh, sea ice relative to recent years is looking good.....seems to me that it must be colder up there and that would make it more likely than not to increase the chance of greater snow cover if nothing else, it keeps my weenie hopes high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 06z GFS shows some N. Hemisphere snow cover gain over the next couple of weeks. I don't usually track this stuff, so I wouldn't know if it's above or below average for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 06z GFS shows some N. Hemisphere snow cover gain over the next couple of weeks. I don't usually track this stuff, so I wouldn't know if it's above or below average for this time of year. We would prefer to have it gain in Oct. At least on the russian side. Gaining on our side could help source regions with cooler airmasses in the fall but really has no bearing on winter. Most of Canada will be covered by Dec almost every year. The only meaningful thing we can track outside of Enso is the rate of Siberian snow cover in Oct. Last year had a prolific gain in Sept but the rate of gain was low in Oct. The Dec +AO verified for a time but didn't have legs thank god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I just feel like a bunch of you long range types are getting ready to hit the winter cancel button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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