Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 If you squint you can almost see a nino trying to take shape in the basin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Seems like the northern hemisphere's oceans are almost uniformly above normal and the southern hemisphere's below. What is that called? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 That map shows the Great Lakes as being above normal. How is this possible when they held ice longer than any point on record and have had a below normal summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Seems like the northern hemisphere's oceans are almost uniformly above normal and the southern hemisphere's below. What is that called? It's not fully understood and I understand even less. The short story is natural variability and it's not uncommon for the hemispheres to experience opposing phases. Not saying that what we're in that though. You don't have to go far back in time for a much more balanced snapshot. If I had to guess, the eq pac looks so warm because of an emerging potential nino and a big leftover area from the persistent ridging in the n pac. That map shows the Great Lakes as being above normal. How is this possible when they held ice longer than any point on record and have had a below normal summer? This chart is only for large scale sea surface temps. Disregard all inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 It's not fully understood and I understand even less. The short story is natural variability and it's not uncommon for the hemispheres to experience opposing phases. Not saying that what we're in that though. You don't have to go far back in time for a much more balanced snapshot. If I had to guess, the eq pac looks so warm because of an emerging potential nino and a big leftover area from the persistent ridging in the n pac. This chart is only for large scale sea surface temps. Disregard all inland areas. Seems the Arctic has been deep red on every one of those maps I see since I started looking at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Seems the Arctic has been deep red on every one of those maps I see since I started looking at them. so stop looking at them well, I'm just happy that the sea ice is similar to last year and not those ugly years otoh, I see those warmer arctic sea temps and think ridging baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 so stop looking at them well, I'm just happy that the sea ice is similar to last year and not those ugly years otoh, I see those warmer arctic sea temps and think ridging baby! All things being equal, I'd rather have more sea ice then less, but that's more for the polar bears sake then the sake of our winter snowfall. Sea ice is trending horrifically downward, yet we've still had 3 amazing winters in the last 12 years and we had great sea ice countless times in the 20th century with awful winters. I don't think there's much of a causal link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 All things being equal, I'd rather have more sea ice then less, but that's more for the polar bears sake then the sake of our winter snowfall. Sea ice is trending horrifically downward, yet we've still had 3 amazing winters in the last 12 years and we had great sea ice countless times in the 20th century with awful winters. I don't think there's much of a causal link. I don't think there is much of a link either. Things start refreezing well before we get into met winter anyway. It can be a bazillion below in the arctic circle but it won't matter much if there is no lw pattern to deliver it to us. We've had plenty of dogs before the big melt years. I agree with Wes. Nothing to really look at except enso and then the snowcover stuff later on. We could go enso neutral and kick butt or have a weak nino and suck pac air as much as the other way around. Mod nino's are the only thing that appear to really up our odds at snow. We're a long ways from there. I don't have any opinions on this coming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Yeah, still well below the "normal" of last century. Can't really feel good about saying "yay! not at record lows!". Normal of last century? I doubt the accuracy of data before satellites. I think we have about a 40 year normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Normal of last century? I doubt the accuracy of data before satellites. I think we have about a 40 year normal. That's more or less what I meant. Although there was sufficient shipping traffic and other obs that I bet from at least 1940 onward you could have made an accurate estimate. Note...that would be a pretty awesome research project. Edit...1953 appears to be the year. Yay Google. http://nsidc.org/icelights/2011/01/31/arctic-sea-ice-before-satellites/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 All things being equal, I'd rather have more sea ice then less, but that's more for the polar bears sake then the sake of our winter snowfall. Sea ice is trending horrifically downward, yet we've still had 3 amazing winters in the last 12 years and we had great sea ice countless times in the 20th century with awful winters. I don't think there's much of a causal link. Globally? And is it really horrifically? That's pretty strong language. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Globally? And is it really horrifically? That's pretty strong language. Arctic seems worse than Antarctic, which seems flat and maybe even slight positive. http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/difference.html Arctic: Significant decrease of 4.1% (~500,000 km2; 193,000 mi2) per decade Antarctic: Small increase of 0.9% (~100,000 km2; 39,000 mi2) per decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 That's more or less what I meant. Although there was sufficient shipping traffic and other obs that I bet from at least 1940 onward you could have made an accurate estimate. Note...that would be a pretty awesome research project. Edit...1953 appears to be the year. Yay Google. http://nsidc.org/icelights/2011/01/31/arctic-sea-ice-before-satellites/ From the article "Scientists have pieced together historical ice conditions to determine that Arctic sea ice could have been much lower in summer as recently as 5,500 years ago." That's the point I've tried to make a couple of times in the climate threads. If 40 years is going to be "climate", then expect wild swings. 5500 years ago is within the history of human civilization. I think we don't see the whole picture because we are looking at only a snip of the whole thing. And even if the trend continues, the above statement from the article tells me we will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Arctic seems worse than Antarctic, which seems flat and maybe even slight positive. http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/difference.html Arctic: Antarctic: Thanks for the stats. I knew the south pole was better, but didn't know how much was land ice and how much was sea ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Well, if you think we'll all be ok, then I guess the case is closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Well, if you think we'll all be ok, then I guess the case is closed. LOL. Not unexpected. When anyone challenges the doom of climate change it's usually met with sarcasm or condescension. Climate changes. We will adapt or die. No real need to gent all bent out of shape over it. And.....predictions about long term climate are likely to turn out like those long range winter forecasts.....mostly wrong with a few lucky guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 If you squint you can almost see a nino trying to take shape in the basin problem is most of the warm water is locked up west of the dateline or east of 120W....the core of 3.4 is neutral....probably doesn't mean much though...especially at this point...we have plenty of time...but I don't think a weak nino will do much for us...I expect an Aleutian ridge even with a weak nino....I want a moderate nino... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 problem is most of the warm water is locked up west of the dateline or east of 120W....the core of 3.4 is neutral....probably doesn't mean much though...especially at this point...we have plenty of time...but I don't think a weak nino will do much for us...I expect an Aleutian ridge even with a weak nino....I want a moderate nino... It's the first net positive change we've seen in a while. If you flip the panels back and forth between 2 weeks ago it looks ok. Definite improvement in 3.4 even though we're still far below where anyone expected us to be at this time. A weak Nino is fine in my book. It will likely be wetter than normal even though temps become more of a wildcard. We can have fun chasing a pattern change for 8 weeks and then get our one big one in Feb. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Where is 3.4 exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Where is 3.4 exactly? The blue box of 3.4 is where we want the highest anoms centered for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I love all the August released winter outlooks when we still don't know the ENSO state or what the snow cover will do in OCtober. It's equivalent to last year predicting the Skins would get into the playoffs based on their preseason record without having seen an injured Griffin play.Agree with the prematurity of these winter outlooks and love the analogy. On the other hand, even knowing the ENSO state and October snow cover last year, many people predicted a warmer and lackluster snowfall winter for this area for winter 2013-14. That didn't work out so well. Looking forward to your thoughts as we progress into fall.MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 The blue box of 3.4 is where we want the highest anoms centered for the most part. Thanks Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 That's not much of a target comparitively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 That's not much of a target comparitively. We basically want that area to be warmest relative to 3.4 as a whole. Not really throwing darts or anything. It's a bit subtle in the overall structure of all nino regions during a warm event. Here's the end of Dec 2009 (02 was similar). You can see it pretty clearly: Then there's this beast in 97. East is the least. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 We basically want that area to be warmest relative to 3.4 as a whole. Not really throwing darts or anything. It's a bit subtle in the overall structure of all nino regions during a warm event. Here's the end of Dec 2009 (02 was similar). You can see it pretty clearly: Then there's this beast in 97. East is the least. lol One thing to note is how cold the NP was in both of those years......unlike what's trending this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 One thing to note is how cold the NP was in both of those years......unlike what's trending this year. Still plenty of cold air available though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 One thing to note is how cold the NP was in both of those years......unlike what's trending this year. At the same time in 02 and 04 as this year the NE pac was warm. The bigger difference is in the PDO. Both of those years were in or trending towards a +pdo (04 faded and the winter sucked). That's a big wild card this year. I'd trade the warm pool in the NE pac for a +pdo all day long. I think it's quite possible the NE pac loses a good bit of warmth by the time we close out the year. If the wpac stays warm with a -pdo signature it could be troublesome. As matt said already, we have a long ways to go and lots can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 You can look at the streamfunction/eddy flux anoms on the ESRL site and see that shifts in NPAC SSTs (PDO/etc) seem to be a result of the atmospheric circulation over that domain, rather than a cause. I looked deeper and found a connection between NPAC SSTs and the QBO & SAO. These forcings seem to determine how the PDO trends as we head into boreal winter, rather than ENSO (some Niños see the PDO increase thru boreal winter, others see it decrease). I couldn't find any evidence that our winters are (in any way) governed by NPAC SSTs. However, I think, maybe, that whatever is governing the NPAC circulation inadvertently governs polar blocking...and I suspect that the QBO and SAO play a significant role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Look how hot the N Atlantic is compared to all of those other years.... -NAO anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 For this winter I'd like a Dec. 2009, a Jan. 1996, a Feb. 2010 and a Mar. 2014. Let me know if you all can make that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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