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Winter 2014-2015 Thread


Ji

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http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/08/perfect-scoring-winter-analog-paints.html

 

This guy likes  1958-1959 analog right now. Favorable, but we would need better luck with precipitation.

For the Mid-Atlantic: A cooler than normal winter with above average precipitation is currently favored. Snowfall is projected to be above normal.

- See more at: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/p/preliminary-2014-2015-winter-forecast.html#sthash.mjqDV6Nl.dpuf

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LArry Cosgrove has now made his Autumn forecast and preliminary Winter outlook.

 

Warmer than normal Sept

Colder than normal Oct

Colder than normal to normal Nov

 

Wetter than normal seems to be a theme

 

Expecting oscillating cold and warm shots through rest of winter but notes a potential suppressed storm track if NAO and AO are strongly negative.

 

1957 and 2009 as correlation with some 2003 discussion.

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LArry Cosgrove has now made his Autumn forecast and preliminary Winter outlook.

 

Warmer than normal Sept

Colder than normal Oct

Colder than normal to normal Nov

 

Wetter than normal seems to be a theme

 

Expecting oscillating cold and warm shots through rest of winter but notes a potential suppressed storm track if NAO and AO are strongly negative.

 

1957 and 2009 as correlation with some 2003 discussion.

Suppressed as in little STJ flow or a southern jet stream flow that would bring more storms?

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Yeah, still well below the "normal" of last century.  Can't really feel good about saying "yay! not at record lows!".  

I love all the August released winter outlooks when we still don't know the ENSO state or what the snow cover will do in OCtober.  It's equivalent to last year predicting the Skins would get into the playoffs based on their preseason record without having seen an injured Griffin play. 

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I love all the August released winter outlooks when we still don't know the ENSO state or what the snow cover will do in OCtober.  It's equivalent to last year predicting the Skins would get into the playoffs based on their preseason record without having seen an injured Griffin play. 

Oh come on, Wes.  You can always predict the Skins won't make the playoffs ;):whistle:

 

But I agree about the winter stuff.  :)

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I love all the August released winter outlooks when we still don't know the ENSO state or what the snow cover will do in OCtober.  It's equivalent to last year predicting the Skins would get into the playoffs based on their preseason record without having seen an injured Griffin play. 

there is a better chance DCA gets 40" of snow this year than the thin skins getting into the playoffs...latest weekly oni was +0.3 which is a good sign for an el nino winter...

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