Bob Chill Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 How did you do this? http://www.wxcaster.com/cfsv2_charts1.htm You can go all the way to April 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Thanks Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Guys, come on now. It's 18z. Just wait till the next frame and it'll be rippin' snow. NAM 0z run shows 15 inches before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Hi-res Nam paints a stripe of 18-21" over southern moco... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 CFS shows a sweet MD/DC special Feb 18-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 33 degrees here with sleet. Time to toss the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 Nope, big ole fashioned cold rainer up and down the corridor. The purple line is 540 thickness. Not even close. It's a miller A though. So there's that. It can't pick up the inevitable CAD this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 The CFS dropped the storm on Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 The ensembles still have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 I'm all in. Almost there on the -NAO. Epic winter a virtual lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I'm all in. Almost there on the -NAO. Epic winter a virtual lock. nino.jpg Seems legit. Isn't that what the models had for now inMarch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I'm all in. Almost there on the -NAO. Epic winter a virtual lock. nino.jpg We may even have the famous Greenland block. :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 http://features.aol.com/video/bundle-winter-set-be-brutal?icid=aol|carousel|dl1 Weenie snowmap on the WSJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 167% cut-off is just south of me. Figures. Last winter I was 6 miles south of 12+ inches more snow. This year, I might be 6 miles too north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 167% cut-off is just south of me. Figures. Last winter I was 6 miles south of 12+ inches more snow. This year, I might be 6 miles too north. that map is very similar to his 02/03 map, except that year the 167% area was 150% (on the 02/03 map) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 that map is very similar to his 02/03 map, except that year the 167% area was 150% (on the 02/03 map) It's JB. He posts a map like that every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/08/perfect-scoring-winter-analog-paints.html This guy likes 1958-1959 analog right now. Favorable, but we would need better luck with precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/08/perfect-scoring-winter-analog-paints.html This guy likes 1958-1959 analog right now. Favorable, but we would need better luck with precipitation. For the Mid-Atlantic: A cooler than normal winter with above average precipitation is currently favored. Snowfall is projected to be above normal. - See more at: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/p/preliminary-2014-2015-winter-forecast.html#sthash.mjqDV6Nl.dpuf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 LArry Cosgrove has now made his Autumn forecast and preliminary Winter outlook. Warmer than normal Sept Colder than normal Oct Colder than normal to normal Nov Wetter than normal seems to be a theme Expecting oscillating cold and warm shots through rest of winter but notes a potential suppressed storm track if NAO and AO are strongly negative. 1957 and 2009 as correlation with some 2003 discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Arctic sea ice remains stubbornly positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 LArry Cosgrove has now made his Autumn forecast and preliminary Winter outlook. Warmer than normal Sept Colder than normal Oct Colder than normal to normal Nov Wetter than normal seems to be a theme Expecting oscillating cold and warm shots through rest of winter but notes a potential suppressed storm track if NAO and AO are strongly negative. 1957 and 2009 as correlation with some 2003 discussion. Suppressed as in little STJ flow or a southern jet stream flow that would bring more storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Could bring more storms. He was a bit vague Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Could bring more storms. He was a bit vague LOL, that was probably a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Arctic sea ice remains stubbornly positive Positive relative to the horrible recent years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Positive relative to the horrible recent years? to recent years as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Positive relative to the horrible recent years? Still generally lower than the 80s or 90s and much of the 2000 before 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 to recent years as well Still generally lower than the 80s or 90s and much of the 2000 before 2007. Yeah, still well below the "normal" of last century. Can't really feel good about saying "yay! not at record lows!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Yeah, still well below the "normal" of last century. Can't really feel good about saying "yay! not at record lows!". I love all the August released winter outlooks when we still don't know the ENSO state or what the snow cover will do in OCtober. It's equivalent to last year predicting the Skins would get into the playoffs based on their preseason record without having seen an injured Griffin play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 I love all the August released winter outlooks when we still don't know the ENSO state or what the snow cover will do in OCtober. It's equivalent to last year predicting the Skins would get into the playoffs based on their preseason record without having seen an injured Griffin play. Oh come on, Wes. You can always predict the Skins won't make the playoffs But I agree about the winter stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 I love all the August released winter outlooks when we still don't know the ENSO state or what the snow cover will do in OCtober. It's equivalent to last year predicting the Skins would get into the playoffs based on their preseason record without having seen an injured Griffin play. there is a better chance DCA gets 40" of snow this year than the thin skins getting into the playoffs...latest weekly oni was +0.3 which is a good sign for an el nino winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.