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Winter 2014-2015 Thread


Ji

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Wouldn't the warm pool of water near Alaska help maintain the ridge though?

It should. However it can be displaced far to the west for significant durations of time even with warmth up there. If too strong of a STJ develops we can probably bet on losing a large amount of cold air to pacific modification. Which could still make for a snowy winter but it won't last long.

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I just hope the CFS2 is incorrect with the placement of an upper level trough south of the Gulf of Alaska which floods NA with warm air. We're sunk if it is right. It would be almost the exact opposite of what we've been having. What worries me, however, is that the Ridge over AK has got to break down at some point, soooooo......

 

 glbz700SeaInd4.gif

The CFSv2 incorrect?

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if it hadn't done as well as it did last year, all things considered, I wouldn't mention it

but it is showing an ugly winter across the country that could happen in a NINO, so it's worth watching at least

No insults meant by that. Just never been a fan of that model that's all. All variables are worth watching/noting at this point. I see ways we could end up with one of the best winters in history but I also see ways it could fail miserably as well.

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No insults meant by that. Just never been a fan of that model that's all. All variables are worth watching/noting at this point. I see ways we could end up with one of the best winters in history but I also see ways it could fail miserably as well.

 

My guess is somewhere in between, somewhat like last year.

 

Disclaimer: I reserve the right to be wrong at any time.

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I predict a January thaw with people freaking out that there are only four weeks left in winter and the long-range models show that pattern looks scary (bad) in February. Then Ian and me and others like us start trolling a little bit, only to shut up a while we enjoy the one big snow of the season, which will happen in February...and which will be gone within five days from a torch and gully washer.

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If I had to make a winter guess right now I would just go climo snow and temps with Feb being the most productive and cold month. That's some groundbreaking stuff right there.

 

hopefully a different setup than last year...we maximized potential last year...1 out of every 10 winters we will get 40-60" with that setup....we screwed up 12/10 and punted a couple inches on 3/4 and that's it...

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we still have 2 months to get this nino going...1986, 1994 among others looked wretched at this point...

Getting another modest shot of favorable trades going out there but previous wwb's have been short lived all summer. I'll take my chances with a .9-1.0 peak trimonthly. There are other things that can help. Maybe we keep the coldest anoms in the high latitudes on our side again.

Honestly, I wouldn't mind another variable pattern overall and I agree that last year absolutely maximized an otherwise so-so pattern as a whole. I could live with an oscillating trough/ridge across the conus moving back and forth in short cycles. Especially if the southern stream acts nino'ish. I want to track a big ec storm this year and not a plethora of splatter gun style of geographicaly small events.

One thing I don't want is a huge waiting game for "the pattern flip". I can't recall the specifics but the 2 previous weak ninos of the 2000's had some big waiting games iirc.

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Getting another modest shot of favorable trades going out there but previous wwb's have been short lived all summer. I'll take my chances with a .9-1.0 peak trimonthly. There are other things that can help. Maybe we keep the coldest anoms in the high latitudes on our side again.

Honestly, I wouldn't mind another variable pattern overall and I agree that last year absolutely maximized an otherwise so-so pattern as a whole. I could live with an oscillating trough/ridge across the conus moving back and forth in short cycles. Especially if the southern stream acts nino'ish. I want to track a big ec storm this year and not a plethora of splatter gun style of geographicaly small events.

One thing I don't want is a huge waiting game for "the pattern flip". I can't recall the specifics but the 2 previous weak ninos of the 2000's had some big waiting games iirc.

 

 

awful, esp 2006-07 where it was 70 everyday with a massive immobile death vortex over Alaska

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I might have given us some bad mojo now that I think about it. One of my best friends is moving to Alaska and I wagered that they would get another "meh" winter while the Mid-Atlantic would profit again...hoping I don't regret that.

 

(Yeah, I know winters in Alaska are never "meh" by our standards, but I think some from that region would say that  last year was lacking the "it" factor.)

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I predict a January thaw with people freaking out that there are only four weeks left in winter and the long-range models show that pattern looks scary (bad) in February. Then Ian and me and others like us start trolling a little bit, only to shut up a while we enjoy the one big snow of the season, which will happen in February...and which will be gone within five days from a torch and gully washer.

The power of positive thinking right there. (Sarcasm) lol

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awful, esp 2006-07 where it was 70 everyday with a massive immobile death vortex over Alaska

with a positive PDO(its not that dark blue like it usually is)...i think we have potential for some good weather even if nino dosent blow up

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