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January 11 2014 rainstorm - flood watches galore


Ian

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There is already thunder.  The forecast sounding for DCA at 1PM certainly support convection around the area.  Below is the forecast NAM sounding.  Note that there is an elevated unstable layer above the shallow inversion.  Above the inversion,  the temp and dewpoint lines are almost together as one line and that they both slant to the left more than the curving greenish line to their right.  That's a classic case of being convectively unstable with any lifting.    Most of us snow freaks would like that kind of unstable layer around with a snowstorm.  Anyway, that is why there are so many reports of thunder. 

 

post-70-0-73307100-1389452813_thumb.gif

 

 

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My fog is dense again but my temp keeps soaring, now at 54.5.   Impressive warming from the dead warm up.  My temp is jumping 2 degrees in the past twenty minutes even though I have dense fog.  Dewpoint must be soaring. 

raining light here, I'm still at 44 with ENE winds, but looks like the 'wedge' about to break, both Blacksburg and Lewisburg up 11 degrees in an hour!

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raining light here, I'm still at 44 with ENE winds, but looks like the 'wedge' about to break, both Blacksburg and Lewisburg up 11 degrees in an hour!

It's broken here, I'm already 57.7.  Up another 3 degrees in 14 minutes.   I'll hit 60 unless the thunderstorms knock my temps down.  My fog was super dense and how is pretty much gone. 

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You're golden in mby. I'm now at 59.4 with 98 percent RH.  I still can see some wisps of fog.  St Mary's county already is in the 60s. I bet most of my county is too since I'm as far north in the county as you can get. 

yeah, it could still end up close though i kinda doubt the whole area pushes near 60 at this pt. i was expecting to bust somewhere. guess this is one scenario where the NAM shines.. well, unless we all spike soon down the middle. 

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You were golden but a heavy shower knocked my temp back down to 58.8.    That's a great demonstration of the impact of the damming and how its impact is always larger out west.  . 

we're colder than most spots. :(

 

post-1615-0-06952900-1389457914_thumb.jp

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yeah, it could still end up close though i kinda doubt the whole area pushes near 60 at this pt. i was expecting to bust somewhere. guess this is one scenario where the NAM shines.. well, unless we all spike soon down the middle. 

I doubt the entire area gets into the 60s...too much fog and rain around....plus not enough time for the  colder locations. 

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