Ian Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC123 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ042-052>054-501-502-110230-/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0001.140111T1400Z-140112T0500Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON123 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAYEVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OFCOLUMBIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWINGAREAS...IN MARYLAND...ANNE ARUNDEL...CARROLL...FREDERICK MD...HARFORD...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCEGEORGES AND SOUTHERN BALTIMORE. THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. INNORTHERN VIRGINIA...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...FAIRFAX...LOUDOUN...NORTHERN FAUQUIER...PRINCEWILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK AND SOUTHERN FAUQUIER.* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE WATCH AREA DURING THE DAYON SATURDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITHISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCURON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL COMBINE WITH COLDAND WET SOILS TO ELEVATE THE THREAT OF FLOODING.* STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS AS A RESULT OFRUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE PRONETO POOR DRAINAGE...WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR FLOODING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLEFLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Wet, wet, wet. Actually had not realized this much rain was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Impossible....meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Better not delay my flight tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Better not delay my flight tomorrow. I hope you get 1 hr of delays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Oh, joy, flood watches in the heart of winter. What a great place to live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Does any mode show 1-2" over the weekend? Most I can find for here is about .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Weren't we supposed to get like .1 today? It's been raining all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Weren't we supposed to get like .1 today? It's been raining all day. It's been a repetitive pattern. The vast majority of storms that have come up from below us (big or small) have either been pretty wet or overperformed guidance. Wait until the Wed. It's going to be .8 or so by the time it does its thing. Might be .8 of rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 It's been a repetitive pattern. The vast majority of storms that have come up from below us (big or small) have either been pretty wet or overperformed guidance. Wait until the Wed. It's going to be .8 or so by the time it does its thing. Might be .8 of rain though. Yeah, nice change of pace after the last two winters where we were begging for .1" liquid. Now to get the cold to align right.. should work by 2015-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Gfs is less than .25 qpf for here....ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 WAA + Cold Ground = HOLY CRAP it's foggy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I thought people said the southern stream would be nonexistant this winter. Yay, rain!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 I thought people said the southern stream would be nonexistant this winter. Yay, rain!! Long range forecasts are only judged by the things they get correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Oh, joy, flood watches in the heart of winter. What a great place to live. You and Ji should move in together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Nam just went dry too....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Good. We don't need anymore damn rain. My point and click was saying 1-2 inches for tomorrow and it has now backed off to .75-1 inch. I'm hoping for nothing more than spotty showers and rain with the frontal passage. Nam just went dry too....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 It is in fact a bummer with rain to our west and mild, then ample cold but no precip. As bad as 97-98 was, there were coastals and other nice shots but Zero cold air. It's hard to snow in DC. It does and it will. Big ones too. But mostly not. Rule #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 may be some leesburg skipping effect but fronts from the west have generally performed and it looks juicy enough. i doubt we get 2" i'm in till im not in. the bigger question is will it be mid 50s or mid 60s? im tempted to lean latter which means former has a better shot because of that fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 may be some leesburg skipping effect but fronts from the west have generally performed and it looks juicy enough. i doubt we get 2" i'm in till im not in. the bigger question is will it be mid 50s or mid 60s? im tempted to lean latter which means former has a better shot because of that fact. Question is will you push all the chips back in?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 0z GFS MOS is 10 degrees warmer than NAM across the area. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 My backyard has been lighting up like a Christmas tree. Transformers blowing left and right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 On Saturday northern Virginia will do with January weather what we've won postgraduate honors for over the years: upper 50s, balmy south breezes with plenty of heavy rains and perhaps even a thunderstorm thrown in for good measure. One thing's for sure: We're consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Heard thunder with heavy rain. Sounds like spring out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Looks like the NWS has pulled back on the rainfall amounts and the high temps in their forecast. My point and click now says 1" with a high around 50. NWS forecast high for tomorrow high is now 42 down from 52 as of yesterday. Instead of a flooding torch it is looking more average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 43 with .4 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Thunder/lightning - steady rain (.90 inch so far)- 37F- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Less than an inch storm total so far, but the soccer field behind my house is a lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 may be some leesburg skipping effect but fronts from the west have generally performed and it looks juicy enough. i doubt we get 2" i'm in till im not in. the bigger question is will it be mid 50s or mid 60s? im tempted to lean latter which means former has a better shot because of that fact. Less than an inch storm total so far, but the soccer field behind my house is a lake. I'm up to 1 inch for the event. My temp has nudged up to 50 so I think I'll make Ian's 60s if the fog will ever burn off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Had some thunder with heavy rain around 9 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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