Heisy Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 This is pretty impressive 500mb on the SREF, lets see if 00z sends some good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I question why I do this stuff in the first place a lot.more than wxbell's using + signs in their algorithm instead of - signs. 8 pages for a March 29th high sun angle like flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 8 pages for a March 29th high sun angle like flizzard. There are things I do in life that I will never tell my friends. My wife knew I was nuts before we got married so no problems there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 There are things I do in life that I will never tell my friends. My wife knew I was nuts before we got married so no problems there. Do worry, in about 45 minutes when the NAM goes HAM, electricity will be in the air here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Time to declare intentions. Either you're in or you're out. I'm in up to my eyeballs. Bring it. 1-3 baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 From Richmond Virginia perspective. "I'm out." :-p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 Apparently I've been in and out on this one more times than peter north. 18gfs op and ens members say I'm in right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Apparently I've been in and out on this one more times than peter north. 18gfs op and ens members say I'm in right now. I'm gonna use you, Wes, Ian, Matt and Winterwxlvur as ensembles to determine my in/out status. Weighting as follows: 50% Wes 15% you 15% Matt 10% Ian is whatever the most stingy model is 10% Winter Wx Lvr....he's the DGEX As of now, I'd say I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Time to declare intentions. Either you're in or you're out. I'm in up to my eyeballs. Bring it. 1-3 baby! I'm out. Of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Apparently I've been in and out on this one more times than peter north. 18gfs op and ens members say I'm in right now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 First date flashback....I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Apparently I've been in and out on this one more times than peter north. 18gfs op and ens members say I'm in right now. Best ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I'm gonna use you, Wes, Ian, Matt and Winterwxlvur as ensembles to determine my in/out status. Weighting as follows: 50% Wes 15% you 15% Matt 10% Ian is whatever the most stingy model is 10% Winter Wx Lvr....he's the DGEX As of now, I'd say I'm in I've had a pretty good year deciding on which storms to pin hope on.Even Wes said he was half in. So you've got 25% from Wes, 15 from Bob, 10 from me, and probably about 3 from Ian. That's a slight nudge toward the "in". We need Matt on board though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I've had a pretty good year deciding on which storms to pin hope on. Even Wes said he was half in. So you've got 25% from Wes, 15 from Bob, 10 from me, and probably about 3 from Ian. That's a slight nudge toward the "in". We need Matt on board though. I'm always on board for you...I figure you and Trixie, etc will be modeled to get a dusting and will post breathlessly about your 4" and how it is a shocking bonus, accompanied by a ruler sticking out of powder on your deck railing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I'm always on board for you...I figure you and Trixie, etc will be modeled to get a dusting and will post breathlessly about your 4" and how it is a shocking bonus, accompanied by a ruler sticking out of powder on your deck railing Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 final call Leesburg/Ji/Dave - 3" Bob Chill/MN Transplant - 1.2" Ian/Randy - 0.5" Me - Cartopper Wes - 0.5" Winterwxluvr/Trix/WVclimo - 4" Westminster - 7.5" DCA - 0.1" Mapgirl - 7" Parkton official trained spotter - 4.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Its the NAM but I like how much the 500mb is digging at 84...Call me crazy but Im still in for 2-4 for Balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 NAM looks like a big nothing. Maybe that's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 NAM looks like a big nothing. Maybe that's a good thing. Its not even in a far enough timeframe...84 hr looks OK to me...imo a low would pop at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 final call Leesburg/Ji/Dave - 3" Bob Chill/MN Transplant - 1.2" Ian/Randy - 0.5" Me - Cartopper Wes - 0.5" Winterwxluvr/Trix/WVclimo - 4" Westminster - 7.5" DCA - 0.1" Mapgirl - 7" Parkton official trained spotter - 4.8" Apparently that dude or gal was not trained by Blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 final call Leesburg/Ji/Dave - 3" Bob Chill/MN Transplant - 1.2" Ian/Randy - 0.5" Me - Cartopper Wes - 0.5" Winterwxluvr/Trix/WVclimo - 4" Westminster - 7.5" DCA - 0.1" Mapgirl - 7" Parkton official trained spotter - 4.8" I love ya man, you are awesome, this is too funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 matt makes me laugh. and he's probably right. I'm stoked he gave me 1.2". Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 matt makes me laugh. and he's probably right. I'm stoked he gave me 1.2". Thanks man! He is kidding, deep down he thinks you are getting squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Don't forget that Winchester folks post pics from 09/10 for current storms and Westminster folks measure the highest drift for their official totals ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 NAM looks like a big nothing. Maybe that's a good thing. starting to want to get things going at 84 hours, but it's not impressive otoh, GFS developed right over us so I wouldn't expect NAM to have decent precip returns yet 84 hr. sim/rad is starting to show light precip breaking out to our SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 slight differences on the 18z GFS at 90 hrs. and the 0Z NAM run at 84 hrs....remember to look hard for the subtleties (GFS on top) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_090_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I'm always on board for you...I figure you and Trixie, etc will be modeled to get a dusting and will post breathlessly about your 4" and how it is a shocking bonus, accompanied by a ruler sticking out of powder on your deck railing One thing that annoys me are when folks in the far 'burbs who always do well act like "this one isn't for them" and they "are expecting a dusting at best" when we all know they will be getting several inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 It could go either way...the NAM is only out to 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I think if the GFS shows the kind of vort the SREFs and the NAM just had, it would depict a better event than 18Z GFS showed for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 expecting a dusting is the only way to go so you are always happy, or at least not too disappointed. and this is one system I will pass on as Wednesday is a day I have booked up with things I don't want to have to cancel. send it east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.