snow. Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Ill be here when you get 1.1". In all seriousness I get the overall point of your rambling paragraph. However, like my name says Im from Baltimore so I could see a 2-4er out of this if its close to a GFS depiction. yeah...you live in a snow mecca...baltimore is like the Jay Peak of the mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 I just like tracking snow threats. It's fun and a mental challenge. Like doing crosswords and sudoku's. Of course I like big events but if that's all I tracked I would get bored and rusty with long gaps...sometimes years between them. I like this event for the same reason as the last snow. Good vort pass. The evolve in interesting ways and always have the potential to surprise. I'm in on this one till I'm out and not a moment sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Someone REALLY needs a real storm........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Matt is one funny dude. Great attitude. The luck won't stay bad forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 yeah...you live in a snow mecca...baltimore is like the Jay Peak of the mid atlantic Ok that is some funny stuff right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I just like tracking snow threats. It's fun and a mental challenge. Like doing crosswords and sudoku's. Of course I like big events but if that's all I tracked I would get bored and rusty with long gaps...sometimes years between them. I like this event for the same reason as the last snow. Good vort pass. The evolve in interesting ways and always have the potential to surprise. I'm in on this one till I'm out and not a moment sooner. Ditto. I've nickel and pennied my way to just under 3 inches so far this year, but I'm still in 'til the end. I just enjoy the chase and if I don't jackpot so to speak, and someone else does....super! I've lived via computer in 'The Tug" for the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 For DC it's hard to stay positive with a low running out to our north and then one coming almost over us with no real arctic air coming in fast on its heels. What matt says about not having a true block and 50 50 low is right. Having an above normal height area near 50 50 instead of a low really makes it tough. We can get snow but usually have to nickel and dime our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I just like tracking snow threats. It's fun and a mental challenge. Like doing crosswords and sudoku's. Of course I like big events but if that's all I tracked I would get bored and rusty with long gaps...sometimes years between them. I like this event for the same reason as the last snow. Good vort pass. The evolve in interesting ways and always have the potential to surprise. I'm in on this one till I'm out and not a moment sooner. I really enjoyed tracking the last one. Partly because of how sensitive it was to the smallest of changes at 500, and partly because it trended good. Normally I don't like tracking them, mainly because they tend to get worse as we get closer. My favorite to watch are the west track/jumpers. They tend to be wet with precarious temp profiles that trend better as we get close. But, to each his own. Coastals make me nervous. Shaft potential and tease with the MECS potential. Anyway, this one looks like it has potential for fun. Still a long way out there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I have 13" in the last 17 events since 1/26/11...measurable events...not traces.....for an average of 0.8" per event..I tracked all of these...I measured all of them....I stayed up for the euro for every single one...I stayed up all night for some...I set alarms at 3am for others.....I was under a warning for 2 of them...and an advisory for several others..none of them were surprises....about 50% underperformed...2 out of 17 overperformed.....the models gave me significant snow in several within 72 hours....and many more outside 72 hours...The models also gave me measurable snow during this period within 72 hours about 35 times...I got nothing in 50% of them.....Not to be a buzzkill...places like westminster that average 134" of snow will probably do fine..I know the score....I know my climo,...I know where I live...I know persistence and bad patterns....I'm not asking for pity....I am happy with what I have gotten...but since I KNOW I will either get nothing or <1" from this event, why should I pretend there is potential for a nice event...there is no potential IMBY for this event to be anything more than 1"...I'd have to be incorrigibly insane to think otherwise...willfully ignorant.....I will of course track it...I will stay up for the euro as long as its there.....I will be up at 4am watching radar for the onset...posting my ob of 37/33 and reading people blather about wet bulbs and evaporational cooling.., a good 3 hours before people in Carroll County and York PA wake up and post pictures of 4" on their deck...every picture identical and antiseptic with the same grill and same dog....I will dutifully measure my 0.5" deciding whether it is really 0.4" and should I round up....meanwhile people in Cecil county will plop a ruler on a picnic table and measure 7" give or take 1".....I will add to my seasonal total and perhaps near 5" for the season if I am lucky...I will wait for the DCA number to come in and debate whether it will be 0.2" or 0.3".....people from Lancaster will post pics of their smiling kids sledding with the Amish on a hill....and then when it is all over I will do it again...and again and again...until I have 73 consecutive events without getting 3" in a single one When it seems like all hope is lost, look about 100 miles south...take a deep breath...and just be thankful. It really could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I'll be honest Matt, I doubted the whole blocking thing you talked about…until last year. Before then, I figured eventually our luck would change and we could do a 6-12" storm like 40N can easily do. Now I'm starting to understand DC climo more and without a 50/50 low and blocking, its hard to do more than 1-2" storms/thread the needle events here. we need this and I'll get excited about getting more than 4" in the city, though there are other ways to do it....Upper Level Low can sometimes do us right without a great atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 When it seems like all hope is lost, look about 100 miles south...take a deep breath...and just be thankful. It really could be worse. I did in 2/2011 when Richmond got slammed...I did on 3/5/13....I did when Hollywood MD got 6"...I did when Orange CO and CHO got 15-20" in 2011-12 and I got 2.25"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 For DC it's hard to stay positive with a low running out to our north and then one coming almost over us with no real arctic air coming in fast on its heels. What matt says about not having a true block and 50 50 low is right. Having an above normal height area near 50 50 instead of a low really makes it tough. We can get snow but usually have to nickel and dime our way. And that area of higher heights doesn't appear to be going anywhere for the foreseeable future. Pretty yellow/orange through the end of all ens runs and then some. At least were not looking for that pattern change 2+ weeks out as we bask in Pac air day after day. Been there done that too much last couple years. It's a quick hitter and flawed but if the surface low pops like the 12z suite showed there will be a max on the nw side where the bulk falls in 6 hours. If it digs more it could put down .5 in a relatively short time before it zips along the coast in short order. The last storm had a bunch of flaws too and it produced. You have to be pleased with the 5" you got with that one. In the end the storm evolved into a best case scenario. Maybe we press our luck. Worst case is a dud but we'll be tracking the MLK coastal by then anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Matt...move! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 That was frickin genius from Matt, epic. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I have 13" in the last 17 events since 1/26/11...measurable events...not traces.....for an average of 0.8" per event..I tracked all of these...I measured all of them....I stayed up for the euro for every single one...I stayed up all night for some...I set alarms at 3am for others.....I was under a warning for 2 of them...and an advisory for several others..none of them were surprises....about 50% underperformed...2 out of 17 overperformed.....the models gave me significant snow in several within 72 hours....and many more outside 72 hours...The models also gave me measurable snow during this period within 72 hours about 35 times...I got nothing in 50% of them.....Not to be a buzzkill...places like westminster that average 134" of snow will probably do fine..I know the score....I know my climo,...I know where I live...I know persistence and bad patterns....I'm not asking for pity....I am happy with what I have gotten...but since I KNOW I will either get nothing or <1" from this event, why should I pretend there is potential for a nice event...there is no potential IMBY for this event to be anything more than 1"...I'd have to be incorrigibly insane to think otherwise...willfully ignorant.....I will of course track it...I will stay up for the euro as long as its there.....I will be up at 4am watching radar for the onset...posting my ob of 37/33 and reading people blather about wet bulbs and evaporational cooling.., a good 3 hours before people in Carroll County and York PA wake up and post pictures of 4" on their deck...every picture identical and antiseptic with the same grill and same dog....I will dutifully measure my 0.5" deciding whether it is really 0.4" and should I round up....meanwhile people in Cecil county will plop a ruler on a picnic table and measure 7" give or take 1".....I will add to my seasonal total and perhaps near 5" for the season if I am lucky...I will wait for the DCA number to come in and debate whether it will be 0.2" or 0.3".....people from Lancaster will post pics of their smiling kids sledding with the Amish on a hill....and then when it is all over I will do it again...and again and again...until I have 73 consecutive events without getting 3" in a single one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Matt...move! I am...I am considering changing my commute from 10 minutes to 100 minutes so I can move somewhere that averages 28" of snow instead of my 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Oops. Darn cell.. This was a great post... but so depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I am...I am considering changing my commute from 10 minutes to 100 minutes so I can move somewhere that averages 28" of snow instead of my 18" I did that...sometimes it hasn't been worth it...but sometimes it has. All in all I'm glad I moved from Woodbridge to here in 04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Oops. Darn cell.. This was a great post... but so depressing I actually like these events better than the 2011-13 events that came from the west with a 1016 closed contour low with a diameter of 400 miles, that gave us 0.04" QPF (NAM usually showed 0.3") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I did that...sometimes it hasn't been worth it...but sometimes it has. All in all I'm glad I moved from Woodbridge to here in 04 I'm going to BTV, dude...hopefully in the next 2 years....no more child's play...they are in a valley, but downtown still averages 80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I'm going to BTV, dude...hopefully in the next 2 years....no more child's play...they are in a valley, but downtown still averages 80" Sweet...go big..good luck bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 That's where I want to retire Matt. 25 years hence. In fact, have begun working the ref toward that end, taking a long weekend my wife up there next month (feb 21-24). Someday, dammit, I want to live where it wants to snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I'm going to BTV, dude...hopefully in the next 2 years....no more child's play...they are in a valley, but downtown still averages 80" Good call. Plus, the summers are super nice and a good time is to be had nearby in YUL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I'm going to BTV, dude...hopefully in the next 2 years....no more child's play...they are in a valley, but downtown still averages 80" Go big or go (wait, that'd be stay) home. Love that part of the country, can't decide if it will be there or Montana/Idaho for retirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 I'm going to BTV, dude...hopefully in the next 2 years....no more child's play...they are in a valley, but downtown still averages 80" It doesnt matter. Trust me. It just changes the scale over time. My first year in the Rockies was 300" and wasn't enough. My 3rd was 440" and I was left wanting more. 2 years later it was down to 300 again and I wanted to kick cats. The whole time I was there I was jealous of the Wasatch in Utah. I started chasing dc snow again as soon as I moved back in 99. 02-03 was money. I loved it. We're a very afflicted and odd type of people. I think it's genetic in some ways. I've been addicted since my earliest childhood memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I have 13" in the last 17 events since 1/26/11...measurable events...not traces.....for an average of 0.8" per event..I tracked all of these...I measured all of them....I stayed up for the euro for every single one...I stayed up all night for some...I set alarms at 3am for others.....I was under a warning for 2 of them...and an advisory for several others..none of them were surprises....about 50% underperformed...2 out of 17 overperformed.....the models gave me significant snow in several within 72 hours....and many more outside 72 hours...The models also gave me measurable snow during this period within 72 hours about 35 times...I got nothing in 50% of them.....Not to be a buzzkill...places like westminster that average 134" of snow will probably do fine..I know the score....I know my climo,...I know where I live...I know persistence and bad patterns....I'm not asking for pity....I am happy with what I have gotten...but since I KNOW I will either get nothing or <1" from this event, why should I pretend there is potential for a nice event...there is no potential IMBY for this event to be anything more than 1"...I'd have to be incorrigibly insane to think otherwise...willfully ignorant.....I will of course track it...I will stay up for the euro as long as its there.....I will be up at 4am watching radar for the onset...posting my ob of 37/33 and reading people blather about wet bulbs and evaporational cooling.., a good 3 hours before people in Carroll County and York PA wake up and post pictures of 4" on their deck...every picture identical and antiseptic with the same grill and same dog....I will dutifully measure my 0.5" deciding whether it is really 0.4" and should I round up....meanwhile people in Cecil county will plop a ruler on a picnic table and measure 7" give or take 1".....I will add to my seasonal total and perhaps near 5" for the season if I am lucky...I will wait for the DCA number to come in and debate whether it will be 0.2" or 0.3".....people from Lancaster will post pics of their smiling kids sledding with the Amish on a hill....and then when it is all over I will do it again...and again and again...until I have 73 consecutive events without getting 3" in a single one Have you ever considered a SSRI? I'm being serious...it can help put walls up round these types of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 That's where I want to retire Matt. 25 years hence. In fact, have begun working the ref toward that end, taking a long weekend my wife up there next month (feb 21-24). Someday, dammit, I want to live where it wants to snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It doesnt matter. Trust me. It just changes the scale over time. My first year in the Rockies was 300" and wasn't enough. My 3rd was 440" and I was left wanting more. 2 years later it was down to 300 again and I wanted to kick cats. The whole time I was there I was jealous of the Wasatch in Utah. I started chasing dc snow again as soon as I moved back in 99. 02-03 was money. I loved it. We're a very afflicted and odd type of people. I think it's genetic in some ways. I've been addicted since my earliest childhood memories. the ONLY thing keeping me here is my job...I have a good job...and I don't know what I would do up there...so I am starting to lay out some scenarios for work...If I can get that resolved...im there..2015-16? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Have you ever considered a SSRI? I'm being serious...it can help put walls up round these types of things. snow is my SSRI...every inch on the ground fills my head with more serotonin and more dopamine...It will help put a wall around my house...a wall of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 the ONLY thing keeping me here is my job...I have a good job...and I don't know what I would do up there...so I am starting to lay out some scenarios for work...If I can get that resolved...im there..2015-16? Tree tapper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 the ONLY thing keeping me here is my job...I have a good job...and I don't know what I would do up there...so I am starting to lay out some scenarios for work...If I can get that resolved...im there..2015-16? Wife and I are out after the kids are done school. I can run my company anywhere with high speed net and a phone. My wife loves snow too. We've talked about a slower life many times. She adores Maine but I know she would be happy InVermont and nh too. Rockies are too harsh and far from a coast. Those days are behind me anyway. At least for long term living. If you do move in 15-16 you need to troll the f out of the obs threads. Just be like "im only a few miles nw of 95 and have virtually the same climo" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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