snow. Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 lol not even close. You know what the KU's are man...96,2003,2009,83,79 most of the 6-10/8-12 events had a 50-50...we have to really time something without it...this persistent 50-50 ridge is a killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 This threat is dead....mods delete this thread please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro ens mean temps are upper 20's N and low 30's south. Some chilly members mixed in there I'm sure. MOS Schmos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro ens mean temps are upper 20's N and low 30's south. Some chilly members mixed in there I'm sure. MOS Schmos I wasn't saying MOS is right. But I'm assuming the 35 is a raw output.. which are usually too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 I wasn't saying MOS is right. But I'm assuming the 35 is a raw output.. which are usually too cold. Just being a smartass. Temps are going to be a problem unless some really good things happen in our favor. Like everything and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I wasn't saying MOS is right. But I'm assuming the 35 is a raw output.. which are usually too cold. having a 50-50 block kind of sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 since 1/26/11, I have like 13" in 17 measureable events - literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 since 1/26/11, I have like 13" in 17 measureable events - literally you would think that would be hard to do. 17 chances for snow and all failures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 you would think that would be hard to do. 17 chances for snow and all failures You have about 34" or more actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 You have about 34" or more actually for some reason, when Leesburg does well and DCA fails...i get pissed. Not sure why. I guess its because when people talk about our snow that happened this year in the future...they focus on DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 for some reason, when Leesburg does well and DCA fails...i get pissed. Not sure why. I guess its because when people talk about our snow that happened this year in the future...they focus on DC It's a weird situation....I get it that you want a big snow...we all do for sure but when put in perspective we have done pretty well..in fact it's our climo really minus any big storms...it has been rough for DC which makes it really hard for me to complain...plus I like all snow of any size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 You know times is hard when even the DGEX shows warm and/or drysloticus maximus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 That looks a bit Boxing Dayish but 20 degrees warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 18z is a compromise of good and bad. Less influence from the northern low so it's a colder solution. Less amp in front of the vort means weaker surface low so not as dynamic. It survived another run so i don't have to delete my thread yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I like this little sneaky system...sure you DC folks should be skeptical as always, but in Baltimore I like it. 2-4 Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 MOS is 47 on the 15th at DCA. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 You know times is hard when even the DGEX shows warm and/or drysloticus maximus. f120.gif Hard? That only adds to the likelihood that something good will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 That looks a bit Boxing Dayish but 20 degrees warmer. I was going to bring it up that the 12z GFS 500mb did resemble boxing day, but that storm had a nice ridge to its west, more space to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The 18z NAM looked better at 84 hours, stronger vort with the backside of the trough (as DGEX then showed it makes a bigger storm)....Not in love with this system though yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 The 18z NAM looked better at 84 hours, stronger vort with the backside of the trough (as DGEX then showed it makes a bigger storm)....Not in love with this system though yet. That's about 82 hours outside of nam range though.lol For us in DC we need it to all come together right. Not even mentioning the temp problems. It was nice to see separation from the northern low. That helped with temps. We need the though to dig and go neutral so a surface low can form in NC or far southern va. It's going to change a lot but 18z was overall a step in the wrong direction @ h5. No biggie. Mangled mushy threat remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I like the look of the upper air features and thicknesses, but yeah, the surface is pretty bad and looks to be screwing us as the GFS shows now. But seeing this fairly emphatically on the past 2-3 GFS runs is nice anyhow. As others have mentioned, the f'in low to the north ruins it for BL temps around here. EDIT: Is this almost Miller-B-ish in terms of a secondary developing to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 We need more separation from the two waves, we need a stronger vort, uphill battle from here, but I guess a slim chance is better than none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I was going to bring it up that the 12z GFS 500mb did resemble boxing day, but that storm had a nice ridge to its west, more space to amplify.I say that about half of storms now. Though the trough orientation on that dgex does look similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 This is a pretty decent threat. There's reason to think it will be colder than advertised. If the GFS is right, our warmup is basically gone, unless 40's is now considered a torch. Will it be strong enough for good precip is the question. Precip not over the Atlantic to be exact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 the last storm didn't look great at 120 hours.....he!!, the Euro looked like carp at less than 48 hrs with it for that matter who wants to be the bull's eye at 120 hrs. anyway? like the last one, it will wax and wane so 1) get used to it, and 2) enjoy it....if you can deal with wet snow, I think we do OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I have 13" in the last 17 events since 1/26/11...measurable events...not traces.....for an average of 0.8" per event..I tracked all of these...I measured all of them....I stayed up for the euro for every single one...I stayed up all night for some...I set alarms at 3am for others.....I was under a warning for 2 of them...and an advisory for several others..none of them were surprises....about 50% underperformed...2 out of 17 overperformed.....the models gave me significant snow in several within 72 hours....and many more outside 72 hours...The models also gave me measurable snow during this period within 72 hours about 35 times...I got nothing in 50% of them.....Not to be a buzzkill...places like westminster that average 134" of snow will probably do fine..I know the score....I know my climo,...I know where I live...I know persistence and bad patterns....I'm not asking for pity....I am happy with what I have gotten...but since I KNOW I will either get nothing or <1" from this event, why should I pretend there is potential for a nice event...there is no potential IMBY for this event to be anything more than 1"...I'd have to be incorrigibly insane to think otherwise...willfully ignorant.....I will of course track it...I will stay up for the euro as long as its there.....I will be up at 4am watching radar for the onset...posting my ob of 37/33 and reading people blather about wet bulbs and evaporational cooling.., a good 3 hours before people in Carroll County and York PA wake up and post pictures of 4" on their deck...every picture identical and antiseptic with the same grill and same dog....I will dutifully measure my 0.5" deciding whether it is really 0.4" and should I round up....meanwhile people in Cecil county will plop a ruler on a picnic table and measure 7" give or take 1".....I will add to my seasonal total and perhaps near 5" for the season if I am lucky...I will wait for the DCA number to come in and debate whether it will be 0.2" or 0.3".....people from Lancaster will post pics of their smiling kids sledding with the Amish on a hill....and then when it is all over I will do it again...and again and again...until I have 73 consecutive events without getting 3" in a single one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I have 13" in the last 17 events since 1/26/11...measurable events...not traces.....for an average of 0.8" per event..I tracked all of these...I measured all of them....I stayed up for the euro for every single one...I stayed up all night for some...I set alarms at 3am for others.....I was under a warning for 2 of them...and an advisory for several others..none of them were surprises....about 50% underperformed...2 out of 17 overperformed.....the models gave me significant snow in several within 72 hours....and many more outside 72 hours...The models also gave me measurable snow during this period within 72 hours about 35 times...I got nothing in 50% of them.....Not to be a buzzkill...places like westminster that average 134" of snow will probably do fine..I know the score....I know my climo,...I know where I live...I know persistence and bad patterns....I'm not asking for pity....I am happy with what I have gotten...but since I KNOW I will either get nothing or <1" from this event, why should I pretend there is potential for a nice event...there is no potential IMBY for this event to be anything more than 1"...I'd have to be incorrigibly insane to think otherwise...willfully ignorant.....I will of course track it...I will stay up for the euro as long as its there.....I will be up at 4am watching radar for the onset...posting my ob of 37/33 and reading people blather about wet bulbs and evaporational cooling.., a good 3 hours before people in Carroll County and York PA wake up and post pictures of 4" on their deck...every picture identical and antiseptic with the same grill and same dog....I will dutifully measure my 0.5" deciding whether it is really 0.4" and should I round up....meanwhile people in Cecil county will plop a ruler on a picnic table and measure 7" give or take 1".....I will add to my seasonal total and perhaps near 5" for the season if I am lucky...I will wait for the DCA number to come in and debate whether it will be 0.2" or 0.3".....people from Lancaster will post pics of their smiling kids sledding with the Amish on a hill....and then when it is all over I will do it again...and again and again...until I have 73 consecutive events without getting 3" in a single one Ill be here when you get 1.1". In all seriousness I get the overall point of your rambling paragraph. However, like my name says Im from Baltimore so I could see a 2-4er out of this if its close to a GFS depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I'll be honest Matt, I doubted the whole blocking thing you talked about…until last year. Before then, I figured eventually our luck would change and we could do a 6-12" storm like 40N can easily do. Now I'm starting to understand DC climo more and without a 50/50 low and blocking, its hard to do more than 1-2" storms/thread the needle events here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 Omg matt, that is some funny S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 That was good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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