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January 15th Threat


Bob Chill

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What if this becomes one of those scenarios where we were first cheering on the lead wave....but then saw the second wave behind it and want the lead wave to go away.

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What if this becomes one of those scenarios where we were first cheering on the lead wave....but then saw the second wave behind it and want the lead wave to go away.

If you only look at the surface it seems like this is dead but both vorts are primed to pop something with just slight changes. Right now the models are having trouble resolving how to handle them. Euro dumps its eggs into the Saturday system. Ggem likes the wed night vort and the gfs splits the energy equally and this neither really amps at all. I could easily see either of these become more significant. Models probably won't resolve the sat system until the wed vort is put of the way. Also they could be splitting the wnergy too much on the wed system and that pops up at the last minute. There has also been hints of an inverted trough type setup wed night and all the models hint at the frontal boundary hanging around just waiting for a spark.
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It is just a tiny event, maybe we get a dusting per LWX stil.

THE FIRST ORDER OF BIZ IS WHAT TO DO ABT THE 1ST SHORT WV WED NGT.

GFS/ECE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/ THE UPR LOW TRACKING INTO GA/SC

AND THEN OFF THE ATLC CST THU. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER AS IT DVLPS

A SFC LOW S OF ORF WED NGT...KEEPING IT E OF THE DELMARVA. AS A

RESULT NAM GIVES LKLY POPS WHILE GFS IS ACTUALLY AT SLT CHC - QUITE

A DIFFERENCE. IF THE ECE/GFS TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT AM NOT SURE

MID ATLC WL SEE MUCH PCPN...BUT AS COLDER AIR WL BE MOVG INTO THE

AREA - 850-1000 THCKNS LOOK TO BE ~1280M...P-TYPE WOULD BE SNOW.

ACCUMS WOULD BE LGT.

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Have not reviewed anything today and these seems to be some promise but just a week ago it lloked like Wed-Sun was going to be quite cold but now just seasonable-somewhat cold?

 

I think seasonable next 7 days...probably slightly above normal overall....then after that looks normal to below for the next week, but that is still a bit away...but the signal is there for a legit cold shot and possibly lasting...

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