Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 12z gfs looks pretty good with the vort. I think it's trying to go boom. eta: little surface low popping and tracking se. Cold enough surface. heh, boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 wnwxluvr will love this run. Leesburg and dave too. Sorry Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Yep, looks surface temps are OK by 9 or 10PM Wednesday, at least out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 it would be come an inland storm as soon as we took our first paddle appalachian runner, or shoot up through lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 wnwxluvr will love this run. Leesburg and dave too. Sorry Ji Ji will be miserable for us with his six inches of snow and the beltway crews with 1/2 inch of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Yep, looks surface temps are OK by 9 or 10PM Wednesday, at least out this way. It's a crazy qpf bullseye near culpepper. They get like .5. Verbatim I would get an inch or so with temps very close to freezing. Leesburg would get like 2-3. The next vort in line just got more interesting. At least for snow tv. Very tiny boom potential too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It's a crazy qpf bullseye near culpepper. They get like .5. Verbatim I would get an inch or so with temps very close to freezing. Leesburg would get like 2-3. The next vort in line just got more interesting. At least for snow tv. Very tiny boom potential too. too far north on the 2nd one I suspect/fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 too far north on the 2nd one I suspect/fear That's ok. There's another one on the heels that could produce. Here's the dead cat bounce for Wed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I'm still in for mood flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 That's ok. There's another one on the heels that could produce. Here's the dead cat bounce for Wed: dragginmebackin.JPG Don't call it a comeback by the GFS, but I could see this being an ok event still around you over to Mitch. The sfc temps are less of an issue and the modeled h5 is somewhat impressive nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Hey ji 6z gfs shows a fantasy storm day 9-10, enjoy your day Keep the weenie model analysis in the Philly forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Don't call it a comeback by the GFS, but I could see this being an ok event still around you over to Mitch. The sfc temps are less of an issue and the modeled h5 is somewhat impressive nevertheless. The vort pass has been good the whole time. There are clearly factors like temps and speed going against us. But this run just shows another possibility of a slower evolution with more dig. I'm bearish but interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 We could get a charter out of OC and chase it. keep your eyes out for the Andrea Gail if you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The vort pass has been good the whole time. There are clearly factors like temps and speed going against us. But this run just shows another possibility of a slower evolution with more dig. I'm bearish but interested.We need a degree of digging that helps pop the low in a good spot and the qpf max can co-locate along the Leesburg->BWI corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 lol .36 at JYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The vort pass has been good the whole time. There are clearly factors like temps and speed going against us. But this run just shows another possibility of a slower evolution with more dig. I'm bearish but interested. I think this is a best case scenario, an outlier but one that is possible with such a strong vort. I'll be happy with any mood flakes and will be hoping for Ji to get an inch or two so he can complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I'll be happy with any mood flakes and will be hoping for Ji to get an inch or two so he can complain. lolBut his spiritual home at DCA only got a trace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 lol But his spiritual home at DCA only got a trace! An with his luck, he'll end up with 3 or 4 and his spiritual home will end up with a trace and Matt, you and I will get our 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 I think this is a best case scenario, an outlier but one that is possible with such a strong vort. I'll be happy with any mood flakes and will be hoping for Ji to get an inch or two so he can complain. I'm skeptical. Such a small precip max means dynamics are really tight. I looked at h7. I can see why the max is so tiny. But I guess we can't sleep on any vorts that pass like this so pop up solutions like this can happen even @ 48 hours and in. One thing this year that has been persistent is almost everything from underneath has overperformed overall. The range of possibilities are zero to 4 with the most being the usual suspects n-w. A localized central va jackpot would hardly shock me. They have a knack for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 An with his luck, he'll end up with 3 or 4 and his spiritual home will end up with a trace and Matt, you and I will get our 0.50" I'm farther north than all of you. I will get .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 If the Euro lines up with the GFS...... I'm still out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 RGEM looks pretty darn potent with that vort at 48 hrs look too at the slp map on the bottom right and you can see bagginess off the VA/NC coast like it wants to transfer http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I'm farther north than all of you. I will get .75 good luck with that...our 1pm temp is 48 degrees....we plummet to 37 during the heart of the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 good luck with that...our 1pm temp is 48 degrees....we plummet to 37 during the heart of the precip Last storm I had to drop from 36 to 34 in order to flip from rain to snow. This storm sounds like a 90-10% rain/snow split for DC south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GFS has qpf of .19 for Westminster, when its "snow" per Cobb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 RGEM looks pretty darn potent with that vort at 48 hrs look too at the slp map on the bottom right and you can see bagginess off the VA/NC coast like it wants to transfer http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif What is "bagginess"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Per the NAM we get -.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 GEFS in good agreement overall. Some pop a coastal off of NC but graze us. Most look the the op in some form or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 good luck with that...our 1pm temp is 48 degrees....we plummet to 37 during the heart of the precip It'll work itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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