Heisy Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 NAM really digging the vort SIM radar @ 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 NAM really digging the vort SIM radar @ 72 sim rad.gif This threat is pretty much dead. It is going to be weak and too warm, so even if it does precipitate its going to be mostly rain, with possibly a few wet mangled flakes mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 This threat is pretty much dead. It is going to be weak and too warm, so even if it does precipitate its going to be mostly rain, with possibly a few wet mangled flakes mixed in. I thought so too, but the EURO is a close call, I'm like 90% done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 In fact the EURO ensembles are really close to a hit at 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Fyp Damn missed that typo, I usually post from my phone, its pretty close to being true though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 In fact the EURO ensembles are really close to a hit at 96 hours I like your enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I like your enthusiasm. it never comes to fruition so dont get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 it never comes to fruition so dont get excited Our ratio of thread pages to snow this winter is pretty bad. 30:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 it never comes to fruition so dont get excited man, you're miserable cheer up, there's more to life than snow (not that it has been that bad this year anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 GFS not buying EURO solution....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 18Z GFS is clueless. NAM Euro, EE rule, Jan 25, 2000 for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Please don't ban me, lol Obviously Jan 25 phased with the northern piece, EURO doesn't banme.gif banme1.gif Meh it's just the H5 vorticity map. Ridging out west looks different and the fast jet over Texas isn't there. Surface doesn't look similar either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 some of the most depressing gfs runs ive ever seen. Back in the day, it would give us a 384 hour blizzard but we cant even get a 384 hour flizzard anymore on paper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 some of the most depressing gfs runs ive ever seen. Back in the day, it would give us a 384 hour blizzard but we cant even get a 384 hour flizzard anymore on paper How is that even relevant? lol. They still never actually verified, so you should be happy. Less frustration and disappointment. And who cares what the GFS shows run to run...the pattern is going to be what it has been. There will be no -NAO till spring, so its more of the same- trying to time a shortwave with some polar air and hopefully no GL low to eff it all up. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 To my eyes it seems that what is preventing the wave on wed from amplifying at all is that the front on Tuesday now is showing signs of having a second wave along it. That second wave crushes the flow behind it and prevents the next wave from being able to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Lol! All this negativity! You're NW of 95. You will get 6 inches while I get an inch and matt/Ian/Wes get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 To my eyes it seems that what is preventing the wave on wed from amplifying at all is that the front on Tuesday now is showing signs of having a second wave along it. That second wave crushes the flow behind it and prevents the next wave from being able to develop. vort off the coast location is not that different from the Euro, but the Euro was closing it off http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_081_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 vort off the coast location is not that different from the Euro, but the Euro was closing it off http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_081_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 I'm not sure how the euro got the negative tilt so far west. Even that still wasn't quite far enough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I'm not sure how the euro got the negative tilt so far west. Even that still wasn't quite far enough west. because they drive on the wrong side of the street???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 vort off the coast location is not that different from the Euro, but the Euro was closing it off http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_081_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 I wasnt speaking of one model or run but why in general all the guidance has become less amplified with the wed system. Euro doesn't even have that system anymore. The storm it develops is from the trailing vort diving in 12 hours behind the one that was originally the wed storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Hey ji 6z gfs shows a fantasy storm day 9-10, enjoy your day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 are people still tracking this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Ded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 RIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 I'm in For cool and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Hey ji 6z gfs shows a fantasy storm day 9-10, enjoy your day you mean this storm 500 miles east of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 you mean this storm 500 miles east of us? We could get a charter out of OC and chase it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Resurrection @ 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 We could get a charter out of OC and chase it. it would be come an inland storm as soon as we took our first paddle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Hey ji 6z gfs shows a fantasy storm day 9-10, enjoy your day no it doesn't..it shows nothing..Icez, do you know how to read models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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