Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 crazy how far south the 12z gfs is taking the 0 line this weeksnow into fl and nobody discussing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 It's not bad at all. It isnt bad. Just continues moral of the story for this year thus far, cold is around but no blocking or indice cooperation to get the storms up the coast. Been threading the needle the entire winter season so far. If anything this year has shown us all that cold air masses/ patterns can only do so much for us with no other support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 snow into fl and nobody discussing lol. head to the south forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The GFS doesnt dig enough at 84hr and 90 hr . Center off the Delmarva to the BM . As it is There will b more precip with it . The NAM at 84 hours looks like the Euro as far as digging . The model is gona have trouble which SW to focus on Hang in there Paul the fact that going into a "favorable" pattern for the EC and depending on also blocking that has been scarse as hens teeth this year to help the cause has me worried to say the least. 50/50 shot we get an epic stretch or a stinker and frustrating end to winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 snow into fl and nobody discussing lol. head to the south forum good point :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 head to the south forum Florida....home of the bath salt zombies and crazy people, i can why hes posting it here and not in the nuthouse arena called florida lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 It isnt bad. Just continues moral of the story for this year thus far, cold is around but no blocking or indice cooperation to get the storms up the coast. Been threading the needle the entire winter season so far. If anything this year has shown us all that cold air masses/ patterns can only do so much for us with no other support We just need a transient -NAO to do the trick. It's too bad that we can't get a lot of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 this is the clipper to keep an eye on - the one that digs further south Sunday the 19th and then tries to develop and move up the coast - this one has more room to dig into and develop as the trough starts to establish itself so around here this would be a 19th to 20th event http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 It isnt bad. Just continues moral of the story for this year thus far, cold is around but no blocking or indice cooperation to get the storms up the coast. Been threading the needle the entire winter season so far. If anything this year has shown us all that cold air masses/ patterns can only do so much for us with no other support This winter should have completely torched with all those unfavorable indices but luckily the EPO overrode all those unfavorable teleconnections and will continue to do so, which is why I have no doubt we'll see plenty more snow but I never believed we would see big powerful coastal this year because it's just not in the cards. A MECS is probably the best we could hope for and probably the best way to achieve that is through a split flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 As per GFS Sat - miss EAST , Sun- miss SOUTH , Mon - miss NORTH . Its not about blocking . if there was blocking those SW prob get shunted since the model just makes round the base , you just need spacing , You are PROB not gona get a SW every 24 hours . The model just needs to figure out if one digs . its spacing not blocking . ( unless evey storm needs to be a KU ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 This winter should have completely torched with all those unfavorable indices but luckily the EPO overrode all those unfavorable teleconnections and will continue to do so, which is why I have no doubt we'll see plenty more snow but I never believed we would see big powerful coastal this year because it's just not in the cards. A MECS is probably the best we could hope for and probably the best way to achieve that is through a split flow pattern. Thank god for the -EPO. If the EPO was positive, I doubt a lot of places would have near 20 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 As per GFS Sat - miss EAST , Sun- miss SOUTH , Mon - miss NORTH . Its not about blocking . if there was blocking those SW prob get shunted since the model just makes round the base , you just need spacing , You are PROB not gona get a SW every 24 hours . The model just needs to figure out if one digs . its spacing not blocking . ( unless evey storm needs to be a KU ) . As per GFS Sat - miss EAST , Sun- miss SOUTH , Mon - miss NORTH . Its not about blocking . if there was blocking those SW prob get shunted since the model just makes round the base , you just need spacing , You are PROB not gona get a SW every 24 hours . The model just needs to figure out if one digs . its spacing not blocking . ( unless evey storm needs to be a KU ) . have only been 36 KU's storms over 12 inches here in 144 years of record keeping - but we have been spoiled since 8 of them have occured since 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Best shot at snow may be next week actually as the ridge begins to retrograde into the EPO region. There'll be more room for shortwaves to dig, better spacing, and perhaps southern stream involvement. We'll be very lucky to get any snow this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 have only been 36 KU's storms over 12 inches here in 144 years of record keeping - but we have been spoiled since 8 of them have occured since 2000 They are rare I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 They are rare I agree With the hype of all the storm possibilities the next 2 weeks+ something has to give an deliver something atleast notable. Alot of dissapointed people if we dont get something good ( not even a KU ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 With the hype of all the storm possibilities the next 2 weeks+ something has to give an deliver something atleast notable. Alot of dissapointed people if we dont get something good ( not even a KU ) I myself would be happy to always have on the table 2- 4 inch and 3 - 6 inch events for several weeks in a row - its the periods of a 2 - 4 weeks with nothing to track that is frustrating in a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The Canadian , NAM ( L / range , But ) the 0z Euro all dig the system for Sat . The GFS is the furthest N . Check Euro in 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Thank god for the -EPO. If the EPO was positive, I doubt a lot of places would have near 20 inches of snow. Without the brief west based block we had around New Years, we would have had no shot with the storm that hit on 1/2. It would have been a frontal passage and that's it-even with that block, the energy very nearly couldn't consolidate enough for a significant system. Otherwise I agree, we have shots at smaller events of maybe 2-4" or 3-6", but this is a very inhospitable pattern for a major storm because of the progressiveness of the flow and lack of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Given the highly amplified trough that's going to develop, we can definitely get something if a shortwave is able to dig far south despite a lack of blocking. Unfortunately it's feast or famine and the 12z gfs only shows the potential but never the realization of that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I think the first threat for the 16th/17th is pretty dead now. The 4k NAM actually gets measurable precip to the coast and the RGEM has some light snow but the 12z Euro is now coming in drier and further offshore. Going to go out on a limb and also say that todays rainfall is going to over produce. Radar is nearly a solid sheet of rain now. Totals should be closer to an inch. Euro is further offshore for Saturday. Just brushes the coast. No major development either. The trend of weakening the energy aloft continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Without the brief west based block we had around New Years, we would have had no shot with the storm that hit on 1/2. It would have been a frontal passage and that's it-even with that block, the energy very nearly couldn't consolidate enough for a significant system. Otherwise I agree, we have shots at smaller events of maybe 2-4" or 3-6", but this is a very inhospitable pattern for a major storm because of the progressiveness of the flow and lack of blocking. We were so close to epicness with that storm. It got down to 933 over the NA. Solid area of satalite confirmed 80 knot winds with that beast. If there had been 9/10 type blocking we could have had suppression though so even then it's a fine line. Something has to give soon though with the cold air wanting to hangout on our side of the pole this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Shocking to see how different the euro looks today at 12z as compared to yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Shocking to see how different the euro looks today at 12z as compared to yesterday. Too many SW right now its 0z run , ran a Blizzard into SNE , at 12z its a whiff . The Pattern is good , doesnt mean it has to Snow though , I will concede . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Its to early to give up on Friday/Saturday - all we need is one Vort to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Nothing but the doldrums right now. Having a trough in the east is a start though and your snow chances automatically go up just because of having below normal temperatures. It shouldn't be a quiet pattern because of the highly amplified eastern trough and western ridge versus a broad trough over the CONUS or eastern half where cold and dry would normally be the rule. Something will spin up, but clearly all of these shortwaves are confusing the models case in point the Euro going from one solution to something completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 On the 18z NAM you can see how the energy dropping through the mid-west helps to flatten out and kick east what would have been an otherwise very potent negatively tilted trough. Afterwards you have a long wave trough that extends down into the FL panhandle and essentially zero surface reflection to say for it. Why is it that we've been seeing such great looking h5 setups that translate to mush at the surface virtually all winter long? The only thing I can come up with is the extremely progressive flow. Broad surface development south of Long Island isn't going to bring anything significant with such a fast flow. If we had the slightest amount of blocking to work with we would have likely seen multiple KU events already this winter. Both streams remain very active, perhaps too active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 We should have a mid winter grade topic just to hear everyone's thoughts on the winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Lol at anyone complaining about the winter so far. Big lol. Most above average snow. Let's see the complaints after the first week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 We should have a mid winter grade topic just to hear everyone's thoughts on the winter so far. Dec-B+ Jan thru today B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Its to early to give up on Friday/Saturday - all we need is one Vort to explode. The flow is too progressive to allow a storm to deepen close to the coast. They all shear out because the next strong vort is right behind it and it causes too much disruption for any vort to deepen. That's why this winter especially, we need blocking to slow the progressiveness down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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