RU848789 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Suprised there's not a thread on the weekend system, given the NWS comments in the AFD... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A STRONG AND POSSIBLY NEGATIVETILT SHORT WAVE SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE MID ATLC STATES CAUSING ATTHE LEAST A WINDEX SNOW SHOWER/SNOW SQUALL EVENT WITH ITS ASSOCIATEDCOLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OF A SOMEWHATMORE SIGNIFICANT NATURE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE BUTTHE SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS IS STILL FAIRLY LARGE. IT SHOULDBECOME WINDY BY LATE SATURDAY WITH THE WLY FLOW STRONG CAA. THEGRIDDED WINDS PROBABLY SHOW TOO MUCH WESTERLY WIND TOO SOON FRIDAYNIGHT. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 As of now it looks like the next couple of systems will be taint or rain east of NYC. Obviously I could be wrong and I hope I am but as of now imo they don't look good for the island.. the Saturday system really has no cold air to work with we would need a wound up system to make its own cold air and that doesn't look like it's going to happen.... Again this is just my opinion... And I hope I'm wrong..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 As of now it looks like the next couple of systems will be taint or rain east of NYC. Obviously I could be wrong and I hope I am but as of now imo they don't look good for the island.. the Saturday system really has no cold air to work with we would need a wound up system to make its own cold air and that doesn't look like it's going to happen.... Again this is just my opinion... And I hope I'm wrong..... That's exactly what the Euro is hinting at dude. Patience. May happen, may not. But it's not a done deal yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 522 thicknesses a neg tilted trough. 850s minus 5. Hatteras to the BM. It's snow. It's not rain. It's not taint. If the 500 mb r right u snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Are we gona seperate the thread ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 No need to separate. The first storm aint happening. Just needs a title change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 It's a shame that there is a kicker behind the first storm. If it wasn't there, the storm could have had a chance of coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 No need to separate. The first storm aint happening. Just needs a title change. I agree about mid week , thought this was really the Thrs thread . I think the Sat one the 18th does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Nice digging at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Like PB GFI said we have to be patient this week and maybe into good part of next week. The pattern going forward does look pretty good and would be a matter of when not if we get a MECS or greater. Liking our chances thus far for a bookend to winter to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Nice digging at 84 hrs Painfully, agonizingly close to being a NICE snowstorm for our area ( away from the coast ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Painfully, agonizingly close to being a NICE snowstorm for our area ( away from the coast ) I am talking about the SLP in Kentucky for the weekend . Ive never been on the mid week system I said Sunday - not our storm . Ive been focusing only on MLK Thats why i said made a diff thread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I am talking about the SLP in Kentucky for the weekend . Ive never been on the mid week system I said Sunday - not our storm . Ive been focusing only on MLK Thats why i said made a diff thread . Either way "should" be a pattern that we're headed into that'll deliver multiple snow threats and maybe even a nice KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I know one should never extrapolate the NAM at 84 hr but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 There are so many shortwaves around that I don't even know which threat we are even keying in on. Clearly the midweek system is out so is the next one on the 18th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Nice digging at 84 hrs Painfully, agonizingly close to being a NICE snowstorm for our area ( away from the coast ) positive tilt just too long I'm afraid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 So many short waves in the next 2 weeks , Could be Epic or a nitemare if the spacing is bad . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 So many short waves in the next 2 weeks , Could be Epic or a nitemare if the spacing is bad . Zactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Zactly. I am curbing my enthusiasm for this upcoming pattern because of the indicies forecasts look terrible down the road a week or so from now http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Zactly. I am curbing my enthusiasm for this upcoming pattern because of the indicies forecasts look terrible down the road a week or so from now agreed. The only saving grace it seems is the -epo. The +nao sure isn't gonna do it for us. We'll see if the epo can trump the other indices as it had prior this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Zactly. The -NAO or lack thereof will be the wild card in this equation i think. If we dont have any kind of blocking transient or established to a degree this run that may be "epic" may just be a nightmare. It is literally a 50/50 shot right now as to where the scale tips starting next week. The EPO have been the MVP so far this winter but like peyton manning with no good defense it can only do so much for us in this pattern. We need a seahawks or 49ers defensive surge of -NAO to help enhance these storm chances for us. ( playoff lingo analysis with meteorology fits the bill today ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I am curbing my enthusiasm for this upcoming pattern because of the indicies forecasts look terrible down the road a week or so from now http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif It's really not that bad and any of those forecasts over a week out are often difficult to predict. The EPO will be a powerhouse again it seems but a more positive PNA gives us additional ammo despite a +NAO so we'll have a shot at a MECS at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 In the Immortal words of Ed Harris , With all due respect guys I think this will be our finest hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The -NAO or lack thereof will be the wild card in this equation i think. If we dont have any kind of blocking transient or established to a degree this run that may be "epic" may just be a nightmare. It is literally a 50/50 shot right now as to where the scale tips starting next week. The EPO have been the MVP so far this winter but like peyton manning with no good defense it can only do so much for us in this pattern. We need a seahawks or 49ers defensive surge of -NAO to help enhance these storm chances for us. ( playoff lingo analysis with meteorology fits the bill today ) I am beginning to think that since the indicies forecast are all forecasted to all start moving fast from favorable positions towards neutral this weekend that the MLK weekend threat is the one to watch right now if you believe in that signal - BTW the polar vortex forecasted to move south towards the U.S. with 0 degree temps here does not increase the chances of an east coast storm especially with a positive NAO as was witnessed a week ago best scenario would be for it to not come so far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 crazy how far south the 12z gfs is taking the 0 line this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 In the Immortal words of Ed Harris , With all due respect guys I think this will be our finest hour. Sure hope your right paul, there has really been no lack of cold air this year. Its been the other factors that have gone against it that has made it frustrating for us. Really hoping for a MECS or better these next 10-15 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 GFS juuuust a bit outside for this weekend. Too many effing kickers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 gfs notta for 15/16th. weekend one is a miss. maybe snow shower. still early. o canada / euro next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I am curbing my enthusiasm for this upcoming pattern because of the indicies forecasts look terrible down the road a week or so from now http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif It's not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The GFS doesnt dig enough at 84hr and 90 hr . Center off the Delmarva to the BM . As it is There will b more precip with it . The NAM at 84 hours looks like the Euro as far as digging . The model is gona have trouble which SW to focus on Hang in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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