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1/15-1/16 Coastal Storm


Zelocita Weather

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As per 0z Euro , Thats a Mod Snowstorm here for Sat and  prob a  BLIZZARD for SNE

For us

 Hr 102 1003 MB off Hatteras  850`s Minus 2 - Surface KNYC 33

 Hr 108  996 MB off BM  850`s Minus 5 Surface KNYC 33

 

 Hr 114  983  MB Into SNE  850`s Minus 10 - Precip done for us . ( 13 MB ) drop in 6 hours is rapid deeepening for SNE .

 

1 . Dont look at the precip field on the Euro , It will be bigger and deeper is this is right

2 . At 108 it`s 500 MB is NEG tilted so the surface will  catch up .

3 . Surface temps should be colder with a high to the N and a system deepening 7 plus MB in 6 hours on its way to the BM

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As per 0z Euro , Thats a Mod Snowstorm here for Sat and  prob a  BLIZZARD for SNE

For us

 Hr 102 1003 MB off Hatteras  850`s Minus 2 - Surface KNYC 33

 Hr 108  996 MB off BM  850`s Minus 5 Surface KNYC 33

 

 Hr 114  983  MB Into SNE  850`s Minus 10 - Precip done for us . ( 13 MB ) drop in 6 hours is rapid deeepening for SNE .

 

1 . Dont look at the precip field on the Euro , It will be bigger and deeper is this is right

2 . At 108 it`s 500 MB is NEG tilted so the surface will  catch up .

3 . Surface temps should be colder with a high to the N and a system deepening 7 plus MB in 6 hours on its way to the BM

 

The 06Z NAM wants to take it a bit further @HR84, in terms of digging for the Northern Stream. Also, it seems a bit slower as well. 

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And just for Fun The Euro Ensembles have a storm on the 23 th ( which its control run just goes nuts , a little too tucked in but the ensembles are East  )  and one on the 29th . Should be a cool 2 weeks of tracking this stuff .

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What's it showing?

Verbatim not much....but the overall look is very intriguing.....

Maybe we can pull off a 1/25/2000 redux! I remember that surprise storm very well. Kept blowing up offshore on the models until the night prior we all saw it coming up the coast instead. Very interesting developments....this needs to be monitored imo.

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Something may surprise us with this storm. As was states H5 looks quite tasty. Some more positive trends and they're will be some happy people. Me on the coast however i think it will be taint or rain for me

 

The Euro has really been struggling with different solutions almost each few runs. The shortwaves may be too close together

for any one to amplify enough to our south for a major storm.

The Euro's MO recently has been to show an amplified solution

day 4-6 only to back off as we get closer with another vort getting too close behind the 

lead storm.

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The Euro has really been struggling with different solutions almost each few runs. The shortwaves may be too close together

for any one to amplify enough to our south for a major storm.

Ill agree with you that the EURO in general really has not been knock out performer this year like it has in the past winters. Granted end of this week through the end of january is as close to ripe for a major/KU as one can get. Im thinking we'll be entering a bookend to winter for the books. That is my bold call ;)

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Something may surprise us with this storm. As was states H5 looks quite tasty. Some more positive trends and they're will be some happy people. Me on the coast however i think it will be taint or rain for me

 

The Euro has really been struggling with different solutions almost each few runs. The shortwaves may be too close together

for any one to amplify enough to our south for a major storm.

I was thinking the same...the wavelength is not great between systems. While there is a lot of energy coming south we may have too much of a good thing including kickers in this still progressive pattern.
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The bigger threat may be during the  MLK weekend . I know its not any of the operational runs ,  but the Ensembles the last few days

at 500 MB look ripe on the EC .  If there is a bigger storm lurking I think its over the weekend .

I wrote this on SAT , and  I am gona ride with it .

 

And after this Mid week  Next week should be a big deal as well .

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