Heisy Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 According to the Euro the first storm is rain and the second storm is what Earthlight highlighted. Huh? You're misunderstanding the dates, the 15th is out to sea, the next one is the one Earthlight is interested in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The 108-120 hour progression on the Euro is very exciting. IF the 579dm ridge at H5 verifies on the west coast, the potential would exist for a major storm system on the East Coast. The models have been consistently underestimating the energy and speed of northern stream shortwaves this season. And while the Euro has the signal for a northern stream shortwave diving into the trough over the MS Valley at that time, one can assume that a slightly more amplified/energetic solution would be enough to develop the coastal low faster.[/quote] John I was looking at the euro d 10 ensembles on Friday and there were so many kinks on the east coast for MLK wknd I posted yesterday my idea was if ur go a keep crashing these thicknesses to the coast one of them could spin up. With that PNA the flow may b able to slow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The storm around 108 hrs is the 16th (late on the 16th) that is out to sea and just brushes the coast with some light rain.. There is a storm before that that is rainfall... which is around 48 + hrs.. Then there is a third around 138 hrs out ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I'm actually liking the chances for a pretty good storm after the 17th. The teleconnections continue to capture my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Huh? You're misunderstanding the dates, the 15th is out to sea, the next one is the one Earthlight is interested in Nope. We have a rain storm followed by potential in the time frame highlighted above by Earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I'll take one 12"+ storm or two more 6"+ storms and I'll be happy this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I'll take one 12"+ storm or two more 6"+ storms and I'll be happy this winter. I posted about this in the banter thread with a link this morning - there have only been 36 - 12 inch storms in NYC in recorded history since 1869 and maybe a total of 180 - 6 inch plus storms including those 27 in NYC history - so if you end up happy it would be considered a blockbuster 40 inch plus type of winter........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I posted about this in the banter thread with a link this morning - there have only been 27 - 12 inch storms in NYC in recorded history since 1869 and maybe a total of 170 - 6 inch plus storms including those 27 in NYC history - so if you end up happy it would be considered a blockbuster 40 inch plus type of winter........ All true, but sooner or later, number 28 comes along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 All true, but sooner or later, number 28 comes along actually its number 37 you are talking about but consider this 8 of the 36 total 12 inch storms have come since the year 2000 - thats why many folks expect them all the time - we have been spoiled - so don't be surprised if we go many years without one at some point to balance everything out http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/footplussnow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 With a look like that , an MLK weekend storm shouldn't be a whiff . I don't know if that's right , but if it is , expect the surface to look a lot more backed around over the next few days . D6 events are too hard to get excited about , but at least the threat is there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The Euro setup at 96 hours at 500mb looks exactly like 1/2000, its funny how I did not see it mentioned on any of the forum threads today given how its mentioned all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The Euro setup at 96 hours at 500mb looks exactly like 1/2000, its funny how I did not see it mentioned on any of the forum threads today given how its mentioned all the time There is a story behind that storm 1/25/2000 - that storm was not expected to make it up the coast and the models screwed it up till the last minute - all of us on eastern weather at the time noticed in the evening of the 24th that the storm was moving up the coast and was going to hit us - big surprise for a lot of people on the 11 pm news when the local TV mets had to change their forecasts at the last minute - remember watching larry cosgrove when he was on channel 9 at the time http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Euro ensembles show the midweek storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Remember, just because NYC doesn't see 12" it doesn't mean most of the area will not as well. There are probably an equal number of storms were NYC, especially the park, didn't see 12" but more than half of the area did. Anyway, NAM looks interesting at end of 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The Euro setup at 96 hours at 500mb looks exactly like 1/2000, its funny how I did not see it mentioned on any of the forum threads today given how its mentioned all the time Check the Mid-atlantic forums I posted about this when the EURO came out, got laughed at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I'd be really surprised if we didn't see a big storm spin up between the 15th and 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 You can kind of see how things might evolve toward what the Euro showed on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 You can kind of see how things might evolve toward what the Euro showed on the 18z gfs. It tried to spin up a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Once past Tuesday the models start the connection of the height field fom off the wet coast up thru Alaska and eventually over the top of the pole . So by day 10 the PV is left pivoting somewhere near Hudson Bay. In between then the models are goin to hav a hard time figuring out the depth and speed of the troughs as well as there axis as small robes rotate through. So you are goin to see SLP Pop up in 5 days on an OP , then dropped. 6 days out on an ensembles then east etc Eventually one of them are gona come thru the slot. It wants to snow here this year. So patience is required . Days 6 thru 10 are colder than 1 thru 5 and day 10 thru 15 are colder than days 6 thru 10 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Think the one after the 15/16th storm has a better shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 HPC 0z GGEM Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The canadian shows rain to mix with a low near the benchmark http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Think the one after the 15/16th storm has a better shot Not really, I think they have an equally poor shot, but neither threat IMO is completely off the table and pending what we see on the Euro, the weekend threat may still be very much alive. And let's say we see the Euro back off of it tonight, it could still come back with it tomorrow 12Z. We have seen that way too many times, especially this season and last. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Looks like we're once again getting victimized by the progressive nature of the pattern, as we have been for most of the winter. Despite the fact that we've had lots of phasing going on and consistent threats, none of the systems have really been able to slow down and wrap up enough to hammer the area. Even the big rains that were forecasted for Saturday didn't come to fruition because the trough remained progressive, minimizing the duration. Unless we can get some blocking and the pattern to slow down some, we're not going to do any better than fast moving nickel and dime events. Two strongly amplified troughs crossing the region in less than 5 days and under 0.50" of QPF to show for it, that doesn't happen very often in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Weekend clipper ? maybe we get this to dig a bit , worth watching this week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Looks like we're once again getting victimized by the progressive nature of the pattern, as we have been for most of the winter. Despite the fact that we've had lots of phasing going on and consistent threats, none of the systems have really been able to slow down and wrap up enough to hammer the area. Even the big rains that were forecasted for Saturday didn't come to fruition because the trough remained progressive, minimizing the duration. Unless we can get some blocking and the pattern to slow down some, we're not going to do any better than fast moving nickel and dime events. Two strongly amplified troughs crossing the region in less than 5 days and under 0.50" of QPF to show for it, that doesn't happen very often in January. Saturday was never supposed to be a long duration event. Many places just west of us had twice as much rain in the same amount of time. It just never got heavy for a long period of time. We could have easily seen 1.5-2" in 12 hours In addition, most of our hard hitting snowstorms the past decade have been fairly short duration storms. Most of what fell on 1/27/11 fell in 8 hours, places in LI got 2 feet in 12/09 in about 12 hours, 2/2006, 12/2000 are other examples of 12"+ storms falling in relatively short durations. The PD II/Blizzard 96 are the exception rather than the rule when it comes to big long duration storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It'll be an interesting week if the gfs is correct. Two redevelopers really trying to dig on the 12z gfs. The real cold air will probably hold off until next week though when the EPO starts going negative again but storms are definitely possible this week with maybe a few surprises. And then a couple more disturbances coming in to play, very active run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Day 8 threat on the GFS , its been on the model for a few days , Next week looks active . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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