WintersGrasp Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I feel like this event could be our big one of the year...8-12". We'll see We just had a "big one...8-12 inches". Well for the NJ NYC area it was 4-8". I got 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 But some snow goggler said the big one Is coming? He must be watching too much Sanford and sons Considering your recent track record, you MIGHT wanna lay off the goggles jokes. Especially in discussion threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Where is the reload here?:ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png The 12z GEFS has changed to -EPO in 11-15 day. The Euro Ens have been showing a -EPO reload for late month. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 18Z GFS still has the the storm and there is blocking upstream helped by the previous storm - also the 18Z Nam at 84 was hinting of a disturbance beginning to develop to the southwest http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 Colder as well.....25"-.50" area wide save for Long Island..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Based on the position of the NAM at 84 hours and where the 12Z and 18Z GFS show the system it seems likely the offshore track which would give a threat of snow to the area is more legitimate...the NAM is not overly juiced up or too far west...I don't see it being a big storm but its likely more a threat than the Euro would indicate, I made a pact I would not trust the Euro anymore this winter anyway til it beat the GFS on a storm which its really yet to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Though people are saying it's nothing....as I said earlier....I feel this event, as we get within 2-3 days, will either fizzle OR start to blow up....which is why I feel that it could be the biggest snow event of the year for many of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Check out my blog on this particular threat at liveweatherblogs.com. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 the euro is nothing but light rain for us True. But you completely ignore the moster trof. Always focusing on the surface features. The same kind of posts that you have been making since you were 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Check out my blog on this particular threat at liveweatherblogs.com. Thanks. I agree 100 % - good write up - 3 -6 inches seems reasonable right now - confidence grows with each run the GFS shows this and we are within 4 days now - the main reason I am behind this storm is the indicies are all favorable and even though the NAO is not as negative as we would like for an east coast storm - the previous storm is helping out with the blocking and slowing things down http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=68957&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 0Z GFS has the low developing further south deeper in the trough then up the coast - moderate event - mostly frozen on this run http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 0Z GFS has the low developing further south deeper in the trough then up the coast - moderate event - mostly frozen on this run http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html Only a tenth or so of liquid..temps mid to upper 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Still lots of time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I think this one has quite a bit of potential, the trough digs very far south on the gfs and is really amplified. I wouldn't be surprised if models blew this one up as we got closer, which was kind of been the trend this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 It doesn't go negative enough for us. GGEM pretty much shows the same thing, a little wetter, warmish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Well for the NJ NYC area it was 4-8". I got 6 No it wasn't. Every single NYC borough was 6"-12" and most areas were 8"-11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 06Z GFS is active through the end of the month - and the Euro had another major arctic outbreak towards the end of the month http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 No it wasn't. Every single NYC borough was 6"-12" and most areas were 8"-11". That is correct. I had 11" in brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Well for the NJ NYC area it was 4-8". I got 6 12" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 So is this threat dead now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Last night's Euro has a light to mod rain...weak low tracks east of LI towards cape cod. Temps 35-42 region wide. Today's Euro is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Looks like this threat is dead. I would just expect rain and snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Hold on to your seats. The Euro is spinning up a coastal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Hold on to your seats. The Euro is spinning up a coastal lol Anything good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 euro has two close calls with costars this week and looks great for storm chances going into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The 108-120 hour progression on the Euro is very exciting. IF the 579dm ridge at H5 verifies on the west coast, the potential would exist for a major storm system on the East Coast. The models have been consistently underestimating the energy and speed of northern stream shortwaves this season. And while the Euro has the signal for a northern stream shortwave diving into the trough over the MS Valley at that time, one can assume that a slightly more amplified/energetic solution would be enough to develop the coastal low faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The NAO is also the most negative it's been in months if that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Anything good? Close call with the midweek storm and then another close call with a storm for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 According to the Euro the first storm is rain and the second storm is what Earthlight highlighted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The NAO is also the most negative it's been in months if that means anything. means even more when the PNA is positive like it is forecasted to be later this week and the AO close to -2 forecasted - signals deep trough in the east - models might take a while to fiqure this out but the chances this week for an east coast storm have increased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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