NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Will all come down to rates , if you can drop .75 in 6 - 9 hours on a NE wind you will cool the column . If the QPF is on the lighter side then its hard to do No worries IMO - of course there might be some mix at the very beginning BUT the pattern , Indicies, track of the low - water temps all are favorable and point to this being a mainly snow event - question now is how intense this will become especially since the NAO is slightly negative and AO is forecasted to be as negative as it has been in quite some time and the high pressure in a very favorable position and the GFS bringing this back again after its usual losing it habit for a couple of runs is also encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 It's been said before but a nice block would have led to this blowing up significantly, possibly explosively as the flow would have rapidly slowed down and another system behind it could have caught up with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Fork , I see you lurking . BL issues ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Fork , I see you lurking . BL issues ?the gfs isn't out on bufkit yet but the antecedent airmass looks pretty crappy. probably light rain to an inch or so of wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 It's been said before but a nice block would have led to this blowing up significantly, possibly explosively as the flow would have rapidly slowed down and another system behind it could have caught up with this. there is going to be some blocking going on the NAO is negative now and going to stay that way through the event ALSO this is the first storm where all the indicies are in a favorable position so with that said still has to be determined how much this can intensify in time which will determine how much we get http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 the gfs isn't out on bufkit yet but the antecedent airmass looks pretty crappy. probably light rain to an inch or so of wet snow Thank you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 there is going to be some blocking going on the NAO is negative now and going to stay that way through the event ALSO this is the first storm where all the indicies are in a favorable position so with that said still has to be determined how much this can intensify in time which will determine how much we get http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Very slight -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The long range warms up. Looks like all the models warm up the area for the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The long range warms up. Looks like all the models warm up the area for the long range. Below normal Wed thru Sun , The warm up after that isn't that long . Week 3 its back full force . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The long range warms up. Looks like all the models warm up the area for the long range. I hope you aren't buying into that ? long range hasn't been working out well this winter so far on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I hope you aren't buying into that ? long range hasn't been working out well this winter so far on the models Not at all. Just putting it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I feel like this event could be our big one of the year...8-12". We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I feel like this event could be our big one of the year...8-12". We'll see I think that is possible - I don't know why other folks here are worrying about lack of blocking -most of the other events had less blocking then this one with a neg PNA this one has some blocking - positive PNA - a forecasted -3 AO and the EPO I am not sure what the forecast for that is....water temps of little concern and the colder air is going to be arriving with the storm with a high in southeast Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I feel like this event could be our big one of the year...8-12". We'll see The bigger threat may be during the MLK weekend . I know its not any of the operational runs , but the Ensembles the last few days at 500 MB look ripe on the EC . If there is a bigger storm lurking I think its over the weekend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Anthony the models aren't warming us up. The -EPO pattern is just reloading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The bigger threat may be during the MLK weekend . I know its not any of the operational runs , but the Ensembles the last few days at 500 MB look ripe on the EC . If there is a bigger storm lurking I think its over the weekend . got links ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I feel like this event could be our big one of the year...8-12". We'll see I dont know. I'm seeing shades of Jan. 08 where there's just not enough cold air to work with and we end up with rain or wet unaccumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I dont know. I'm seeing shades of Jan. 08 where there's just not enough cold air to work with and we end up with rain or wet unaccumulating snow. I didn't even see a flake with that storm. What a terrible bust that was. I was under a Heavy Snow Warning for 6-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I didn't even see a flake with that storm. What a terrible bust that was. I was under a Heavy Snow Warning for 6-12 inches. Yeah and it was 45 degrees and raining and no cold air in sight. It wasn't a surprise that it didn't turn to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 got links ?[/quotSorry just saw. Don't Wana post too any euro images day 11 and day 14 500 mb map yesterday s 12z had a kink look to it on the EC wasn't there at 0z but let's see if it comes back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I dont know. I'm seeing shades of Jan. 08 where there's just not enough cold air to work with and we end up with rain or wet unaccumulating snow.Has that been the seasonal trend? Nope. The opposite has been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Yeah and it was 45 degrees and raining and no cold air in sight. It wasn't a surprise that it didn't turn to snow Our area was depending on the storm blowing up just south of LI. Instead, it blew up near SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 the euro is nothing but light rain for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 the euro is nothing but light rain for us That's all good. Keeps the cars and roads clean. Winter to date has been snowy and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 the euro is nothing but light rain for us But some snow goggler said the big one Is coming? He must be watching too much Sanford and sons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 A couple more days to track this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 But some snow goggler said the big one Is coming? He must be watching too much Sanford and sonsThe big one is coming. With the persistent reloading of the -EPO now showing up on all models along with signs of blocking, it's only a matter of time. And since it's only mid Jan we have plenty of time heading into our snowiest month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 A couple more days to track this storm. I think ths one mayb hard to pull off. Don't like being in the GFS sites 4 days out. I think ths one may b more aimed at the interior. But after this the cold air comes and I'm betting on the back end of that trough as the pattern reloads and it pulls out there's likely to be something bigger trailing it around MLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I feel like this event could be our big one of the year...8-12". We'll see We just had a "big one...8-12 inches". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The big one is coming. With the persistent reloading of the -EPO now showing up on all models along with signs of blocking, it's only a matter of time. And since it's only mid Jan we have plenty of time heading into our snowiest month.Where is the reload here?:ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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