Allsnow Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 18z gfs is about 2-4 after starting out a bit warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 18z gfs is about 2-4 after starting out a bit warm.. It's very similar to 12z aloft and at the surface. A hair less wrapped up and thus cooler and further east. Moisture is initially a little limited, but the upper levels look promising and suggest a good slp track for I-95 and west with deepening potential. Legit threat to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Couple of things to watch with this event, most importantly...the energy in BC/AB at 110 hours plus...if that energy is too strong or moving too fast it may force the trof offshore earlier...but the good news is the ridge out there overall behind it is amplifying and building which may negate the effect a bit...second have to watch to see if a low tries to form inland first and then the coastal...the 18Z GFS seems to try and hint at that idea, that could kill the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 This right now is a MIller B BUT the GFS is famous for missing any southern stream energy as was witnessed in the storm last week till the last couple of days before it finally picked it up but the track the pattern the indicies are all favorable this has the potential to be a SECS or greater http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 This right now is a MIller B BUT the GFS is famous for missing any southern stream energy as was witnessed in the storm last week till the last couple of days before it finally picked it up but the track the pattern the indicies are all favorable this has the potential to be a SECS or greater http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html With a good block this would have had major potential because that previously mentioned disturbance in BC/AB I talked about may have had time to catch up to the frontrunning one and really produce a bomb, but in this setup they stay way apart and if anything it could act as a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Mount Holly and Upton say - "what storm" ? http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Mount Holly and Upton say - "what storm" ? http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html You mean, where it has snow in the forecast for wednesday? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 You mean, where it has snow in the forecast for wednesday? lol what are you talking about ???? check this out : NJZ010-110945- SOMERSET- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE 717 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014 ..FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... TONIGHT RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. SATURDAY PERIODS OF RAIN. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN MAINLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. SUNDAY MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. MONDAY...SUNNY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. TUESDAY RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. THURSDAY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40. THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. FRIDAY PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 You cant use one forecast location (one not even in upton's cwa) to say they "what storm", especially when the link you provided clearly shows Mt Holly having a chance of snow in some of their areas. Eta: Upton has snow mentioned as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Gfs cold and dry with no precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Gfs cold and dry with no precip Good. We don't want it showing an outrageous solution this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Good. We don't want it showing an outrageous solution this far out. The NOGAPS and GEM both have a big coastal system in the 96 hour range, both would be rain but both would have potential in their respective setups, it leads me to believe the GFS is again clueless, would not be surprised to see many of its ensemble members show a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The NOGAPS and GEM both have a big coastal system in the 96 hour range, both would be rain but both would have potential in their respective setups, it leads me to believe the GFS is again clueless, would not be surprised to see many of its ensemble members show a storm. Interesting. I might be pulling a few all-nighters if the ECMWF stays on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Looks like upton thinks as of now any storm we get will be mainly rain. At least that's what I get from reading there latest discussion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Euro has the low right on top of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Euro has the low right on top of NYC. That's usually not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The Euro ensembles and its control develop the low just south of Long Island. There is still a lot of variance here. The 6z GFS loses the storm. So I would wait for at least 2 runs in a row that look similar with this before I get exited or sound any alarms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 6z GFS was a step towards the EURO @ 500mb though for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 How does EURO look for precip in Dc/philly/NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Looks like anyway you slice it near the coast its going to be rain. The cold air really isnt going to be that impressive. We're going to have endure these next couple days of model mayhem though thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 last 2 runs of the GFS have backed away from the 1/15 - 1/16 storm idea but thats not unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Looks like anyway you slice it near the coast its going to be rain. The cold air really isnt going to be that impressive. We're going to have endure these next couple days of model mayhem though thats for sure you can't say that for sure yet - not even sure what track the second low later on 1/15 will take - the indicies forecasts are in favorable positions and water temps have lowered considerably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 850` are Minus 6 , The surface looks to be in the lower 30`s , I cant get a clear surface temp pic off some the maps I am seeing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 Storm back on per the gfs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 850` are Minus 6 , The surface looks to be in the lower 30`s , I cant get a clear surface temp pic off some the maps I am seeing . Off soundings: Surface starts off at 37 degrees. Then after .35" of precip has fallen, the surface is still 35 degrees and then after another .08" has fallen, the surface is 33 degrees. Probably a rain to wet snow on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 12Z GFS back with the snow event 1/15 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Off soundings: Surface starts off at 37 degrees. Then after .35" of precip has fallen, the surface is still 35 degrees and then after another .08" has fallen, the surface is 33 degrees. Probably a rain to wet snow on the GFS. With enough dynamic cooling and lift and 850's under 0C we should be fine, also note the low pressure is just south of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Off soundings: Surface starts off at 37 degrees. Then after .35" of precip has fallen, the surface is still 35 degrees and then after another .08" has fallen, the surface is 33 degrees. Probably a rain to wet snow on the GFS. Will all come down to rates , if you can drop .75 in 6 - 9 hours on a NE wind you will cool the column . If the QPF is on the lighter side then its hard to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Looks like a small quick moving mesoscale event with 1-3/2-4, fast mover, similar to 12/10 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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