Zelocita Weather Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GFS advertising 0.5-0.75" across the area...marginal temps, 850's good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Hopefully keeps trending better. I like the amplification of the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 4:36 PM, Zelocita Weather said: GFS advertising 0.5-0.75" across the area...marginal temps, 850's good though. Getting interesting, if the storm can dip further south then we might have something nice. The pattern setting up favors these types of redevelopers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 it's one run of one model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 4:40 PM, forkyfork said: it's one run of one model Eh...the threat/storm has been there on GFS/EURO for days to differing degrees...this does happen to be the most positive depiction of the storm however. We will see what the EURO has at 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 4:40 PM, forkyfork said: it's one run of one model 2 runs now. GGEM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 5:58 PM, Snow88 said: 2 runs now. GGEM and GFS. three,12z ecmwf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Mods have been deleting threads on this threat due to how far out it 'was' so this is nothing new. If 850s are good we should be able to cool down the column if there is heavier precip. With the ocean now cold this should help with threats moving forward ala 95/96 when we kept s owing into april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Someone created this thread last week...albeit way too early I guess he was on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 What does the EURO have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 euro has snow starting at hr126 after the tuesday's rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 6:21 PM, Zelocita Weather said: What does the EURO have? Sends the low for the Tuesday system to Rochester. Another strong cold front with heavy rain possible. Then a coastal forms tucked into the coast on Wed/Thursday time frame. Looks cold enough for snow at first glance. Snow maps show quick hitting 2-4 or 3-5 type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 also has that hurricane moving through o canada that should bring nice cold shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 3-6"snowstorm at 126, nicetrough 500mb setup, 850s look plenty cold, surface 32 and heading south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 2 M temperatures from 126-132 are in the mid to upper 30s on the 12 Z ECM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 more lt.snow hr174-180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 6:33 PM, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: 3-6"snowstorm at 126, nicetrough 500mb setup, 850s look plenty cold, surface 32 and heading south. On 1/10/2014 at 6:37 PM, atownwxwatcher said: 2 M temperatures from 126-132 are in the mid to upper 30s on the 12 Z ECM.... too funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 At 126 the 35° line is in cnj, hr 132 the 32° is in cnj..Not upper 30s..Most in nnj are probably 33-34.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 6:50 PM, Mohawkvalley said: At 126 the 35° line is in cnj, hr 132 the 32° is in cnj..Not upper 30s..Most in nnj are probably 33-34.. On 1/10/2014 at 6:50 PM, Mohawkvalley said: At 126 the 35° line is in cnj, hr 132 the 32° is in cnj..Not upper 30s..Most in nnj are probably 33-34.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 6:53 PM, atownwxwatcher said: ecmwf_t2max_neng_22 (1).png That would be either rain or nonaccumulating snow, especially near the city and coast. Doesn't matter how cold 850s are if winds are not from a favorable direction and we're dealing with stale cold air and no snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 6:53 PM, atownwxwatcher said: ecmwf_t2max_neng_22 (1).png yeah, that would be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 this setup would be snow. low dews would be one of those 32 and snow from there. it's a great look at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Who cares about temps at this moment. Lets just figure out the track first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 7:01 PM, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: this setup would be snow. low dews would be one of those 32 and snow from there. it's a great look at 500mb Sounds familiar for some..odd reason. Also why are we analyzing if surface temps are in the low to mid or mid to upper 30's for a storm that is 126 HR's away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 Those are max temps....it would be snow with the set-up, if max temps are 35-36 over a 6 hour period, 2m temps 5 days out (which run warm) would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 6:53 PM, atownwxwatcher said: ecmwf_t2max_neng_22 (1).png That shows max temps during the warmest part of the day. Clearly warm boundary temps with warmth all the way up the HV. With a little dew point depression, surface temps would likely cool to the 33-34 range (lower with any elevation), during precip. That's not hopeless 5 days out on the Euro prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 You can't analyze temps when we don't even know the depiction of the storm. Who knows if either of the models are correct in the storm setup nevermind temps. Antecedent cold is weak though so I would expect precipitation type issues regardless of the storm's depiction and I favor a rain to snow type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 6:53 PM, atownwxwatcher said: ecmwf_t2max_neng_22 (1).png And the 6 hr minimums are 30. Snapshots are 33 to 35. 850s are minus 5 to minus 10 on a NE wind Not rain as per Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 6:56 PM, jm1220 said: That would be either rain or nonaccumulating snow, especially near the city and coast. Doesn't matter how cold 850s are if winds are not from a favorable direction and we're dealing with stale cold air and no snowcover. Euro is always way to warm. Every storm we go thru this. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 On 1/10/2014 at 7:11 PM, rossi said: Euro is always way to warm. Every storm we go thru this. Rossi The GFS is also above freezing during the height of the storm. Temps in the mid 30s. Snow falling on wet, unfrozen ground with temps above freezing? Good luck getting accumulations. Not saying it will play out that way but right now I doubt we'd see much based on either model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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