superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Verbatim, the NAM looks pretty decent for a shot at accumulating snowfall here. Of course, I'm pretty concerned about BL temperatures, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The trend is certainly favorable, but that's just modelology. My guess is that this first wave won't produce outside of the mountains, but future ones may do better with the cold air that'll be moving in. Yea Saturday still looks like the better event. Given the repeat pattern we seem to be in this could be a good harbinger of how Saturday may evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yeah, 18z GFS was indeterminate on the nonogram for most of the 0.15 that fell, likely liquid :-(. Worry about that in another 24 hrs, one would think with the NAMs look at H5 more precip would be thrown back, but nope. Thats true which would be suspect to me considering there is a lingering trough axis laying along the coast and eventually central and southern FL as it rounds the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 That may very well be the driest negatively tilted cutoff ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 This event just looks too much like what we have had. Cold chasing moisture. Things look good at 850: But the 2m temps not there yet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 0z NAM output showing up on the Meteogram charts... GSP: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kgsp&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on AVL: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kavl&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on HKY: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=khky&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on CLT: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kclt&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 This event just looks too much like what we have had. Cold chasing moisture. Things look good at 850: Screen Shot 2014-01-13 at 10.05.40 PM.png But the 2m temps not there yet: Screen Shot 2014-01-13 at 10.06.13 PM.png Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but if this thing goes negative and gets heavier moisture 2m temps shouldn't be a huge problem. DP's are low enough to where you wetbulb probably just enough to cool things down. Does the warm nose come into play? That's the bigger deal to me but can't worry about that till it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but if this thing goes negative and gets heavier moisture 2m temps shouldn't be a huge problem. DP's are low enough to where you wetbulb probably just enough to cool things down. Does the warm nose come into play? That's the bigger deal to me but can't worry about that till it gets there. We cool off dramatically from 45-48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 We cool off dramatically from 45-48. Very interested to see what the 00z GFS spits out. If this could last another 2-3 hours it could get real good. Even so you gotta think with that the NAM showed we would be in business here with the quick thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but if this thing goes negative and gets heavier moisture 2m temps shouldn't be a huge problem. DP's are low enough to where you wetbulb probably just enough to cool things down. Does the warm nose come into play? That's the bigger deal to me but can't worry about that till it gets there. Agree burger If it does close off then you know from past events a warm nose will be present. Then the question becomes where hypothetically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 There's some lift that comes through around hour 45 that I think adds with the cooling and switch to snow by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 GFS is out to 27. So far looks pretty close to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I guess someone forgot to light the fuse on the 0z GFS. It's as dry as a bone through 54. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yeah... open trough and no tilt through 54... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 NAM step forward, GFS step back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Maybe the old EE rule will come into play when the euro runs tonight. Expect another see-saw event watching the models for weekend event as it draws closer. Hopefully someone in the SE can get lucky enough with one of them to see the ground turn white from something other than frost for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'd like to say this is in the NAM's wheelhouse, invoke the EE Rule, and toss the GFS, but that might just be me being a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 12z NAM has a little more moisture and precip further south vs. 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 12Z NAM is extremely robust with snow over the mountains on Wednesday. It looks like the trough digs over the southern Apps and lingers a little longer before pulling out on Thursday. This is a setup for a prolonged period of light snow across the mountains, and eventually into the Piedmont region early Thursday morning. Soundings across the mountains are decisively all snow. Too early to put amounts down yet. Really need model consensus on this one. We are 24 hours out and so far we have a wide variety of solutions. The NAM is just one, though it does favor a very snowy picture tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 12z NAM has a little more moisture and precip further south vs. 6z Indeed......I wouldn't be surprised if someone gets to see a flizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Indeed......I wouldn't be surprised if someone gets to see a flizzard NAM48.jpg Maybe even you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 KILM says: --> the main forecast issue will be the possibility oflight rain or a little light snow late Wednesday into Thursdaymorning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Hi-Res NAM says anything that falls past the mountains should be snow. It has a few nice bursts over MBY, upstate of SC and points across NC. I wish the NAM could just lock on, it can't quite figure out what it wants to do but spotty flurries makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Maybe even you! Look at the snow hole over Oconee in the upstate!Looks like the Lee side dry slot only to affect Ne Ga and me...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Look at the snow hole over Oconee in the upstate! Looks like the Lee side dry slot only to affect Ne Ga and me...lol If the NAM is correct I would take that with a lot of caution. There will be some surprises that the NAM can't see. Anything is still possible though. Might just be clouds and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Hi-Res NAM says anything that falls past the mountains should be snow. It has a few nice bursts over MBY, upstate of SC and points across NC. I wish the NAM could just lock on, it can't quite figure out what it wants to do but spotty flurries makes sense. Yeah it is hard to get excited on this but I want to. It seems like we get a slight trend for snow then it backs off then tries to bring it back and so on.... the warm temps the piedmont has tomorrow will be hard to overcome but if we can get the precip to last well into the night tomorrow night we may be able to squeek out a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Given the uncertainty of the weakness of the wave developing off shore, I'd say there are still some folks who could get a bit of a surprise Thurs AM. Nothing to cancel school about, but possibilities into the Piedmont. Around here, we'll be fortunate to see flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yeah it is hard to get excited on this but I want to. It seems like we get a slight trend for snow then it backs off then tries to bring it back and so on.... the warm temps the piedmont has tomorrow will be hard to overcome but if we can get the precip to last well into the night tomorrow night we may be able to squeek out a few flakes. Yep this type of an event is where a warm ground with marginal sfc temps will hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Robert has mentioned this the last couple of days, emailed me this morning and said be ready as someone could get a good amount in a sweet spot. Heavy rates is possible IF nam is right he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 GFS is out to 24. Further west with energy compared to 6z...looks to be taking a neutral to negative tilt sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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