Wow Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 With absolute lack of a 50/50 low in place to build any kind of HP overhead, I'd say this looks like a foothills/mtn event to me. The barrel low formation arching back over into Michigan is going to keep the cold from sweeping in quickly enough on the back end. Where oh where is my negative NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 With absolute lack of a 50/50 low in place to build any kind of HP overhead, I'd say this looks like a foothills/mtn event to me. The barrel low formation arching back over into Michigan is going to keep the cold from sweeping in quickly enough on the back end. Where oh where is my negative NAO. Started a new thread here...probably a kiss of death. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42394-117-118-snow-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The 12z GFS individual ensembles are interesting for those in the southern apps TN/NC. Looks like a pretty good signal (almost 1/2 of the individuals) indicate some lee side low development and a pretty good thump of snow (3+ inches). Looks like there is some agreement with the SREF, but nothing of note on the NAM. (though outside of it's recommended usage). Are the chances increasing for a southern apps snow around midweek? At a quick glance, it looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 From NWS Atlanta a few minutes ago: THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THERE WILL BE AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR AMIX BAG OF WINTER PRECIP...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWLEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEETAND THEN SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN MIXED WITHSNOW...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FROM AL TO ATL...AND NORTH OF I-85FROM ATL TO SC. ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA THE PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALLSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/SREFQPF...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHGA...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW THAT THE EVENTWILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN...BUT LATER MODEL GUIDANCE NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 From NWS Atlanta a few minutes ago: THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THERE WILL BE AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX BAG OF WINTER PRECIP...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND THEN SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FROM AL TO ATL...AND NORTH OF I-85 FROM ATL TO SC. ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA THE PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/SREF QPF...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW THAT THE EVENT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN...BUT LATER MODEL GUIDANCE NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. They forgot to add everything dries up on the Lee side border of SC! Rant over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 From NWS Atlanta a few minutes ago: THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THERE WILL BE AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX BAG OF WINTER PRECIP...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND THEN SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FROM AL TO ATL...AND NORTH OF I-85 FROM ATL TO SC. ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA THE PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/SREF QPF...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW THAT THE EVENT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN...BUT LATER MODEL GUIDANCE NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. The choice of words in that opening sentence just demonstrates how differently those of us on this board approach wintry weather compared to how the employees of the NWS approach wintry weather: PROBLEM?? If we wrote the AFD it would be along the lines of... THE GREAT THING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THERE WILL BE AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX BAG OF WINTER PRECIP...IT'S NOT EXACTLY ALL GOING TO BE SNOW...BUT AT LEAST THERE'S A CHANCE FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIP...TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/SREF QPF...THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA...FORTUNATELY AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES THAT THE EVENT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN ARE INCREASING...BUT LATER MODEL GUIDANCE NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR ANY FURTHER GOOD TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 From NWS Atlanta a few minutes ago: THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THERE WILL BE AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX BAG OF WINTER PRECIP...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND THEN SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FROM AL TO ATL...AND NORTH OF I-85 FROM ATL TO SC. ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA THE PRECIP WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TAKING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/SREF QPF...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW THAT THE EVENT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN...BUT LATER MODEL GUIDANCE NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. I'm pretty sure they just copy and paste this for every event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I'm pretty sure they just copy and paste this for every event. Looks that way, Cheston except they forgot the ubiquitous, "north of a Rome to Gainesville line"........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Well, the 18Z NAM looks like it drops some light snow in eastern/central NC Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Well, the 18Z NAM looks like it drops some light snow in eastern/central NC Thursday morning. Yes it does. Completely different than the 12z run which was bone dry. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=066ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_066_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 If the GFS keeps trending the way it does we might have a little surprise for someone in NC. Still pretty paltry but 5h looks better. Vort came in further southwest of 12z. Also more moisture in eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Looks that way, Cheston except they forgot the ubiquitous, "north of a Rome to Gainesville line"........ I almost forgot Greg. Of course Snowstorm down in Carrollton would probably think that it is always I-20. The clown maps keep it coming here so maybe we will see more than a few flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 If the GFS keeps trending the way it does we might have a little surprise for someone in NC. Still pretty paltry but 5h looks better. Vort came in further southwest of 12z. Also more moisture in eastern NC. Yeah that would be nice. It does seem to make the trough dive more and quicker tilt to negative than the nam. As lookout mentioned earlier it is kind of warm east of the mountains as precip begins. By the time its cools it starts drying out top down via soundings. If it comes in stronger and wetter may mean a quicker transition if the moisture is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 looks like a lake-effect snow sounding for Alabama. -12C at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Cautiously optimistic for a seasonal avg type of deal, I will roll the dice with BL issues 60 hours out given the H5 look. 18z GFS mems on the model center at 66 and 72 hrs for the most part look pretty good, maybe a warm nose if the slp gets to close to the coast, or is stronger than what is being shown, several have it below 1000mb prior to lifting north of the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Cautiously optimistic for a seasonal avg type of deal, I will roll the dice with BL issues 60 hours out given the H5 look. 18z GFS mems on the model center at 66 and 72 hrs for the most part look pretty good, maybe a warm nose if the slp gets to close to the coast, or is stronger than what is being shown, several have it below 1000mb prior to lifting north of the OBX. The 18Z GFS is not far from a nice little event for points east of 95 and especially closer to the coast. Kinda wishing I was back at my old stomping grounds in Kill Devil Hills. The 0Z suite should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 looks like a lake-effect snow sounding for Alabama. -12C at 850mb. 2014_01_13_12z_GFS_skewT.png with the right wind direction I've heard their NWS office mention lake enhancement off some of the Tennessee river impoundments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 What a change on the 0z nam. Is that a coma head trying to form? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 NAM looks pretty damn close to an H5 close off near GSP at 54 hours, note the local vort min in the upstate, and tear dropped 534 isohypse . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 NAM looks pretty damn close to an H5 close off near GSP at 54 hours, note the local vort min in the upstate, and tear dropped 534 isohypse . A couple GFS ens members closed it off and of course were more robust with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 NAM looks pretty damn close to an H5 close off near GSP at 54 hours, note the local vort min in the upstate, and tear dropped 534 isohypse . Yep trends are our friend tonight. Didn't look too bad for temps either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I would like my chances if ARW6 verified..... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500US_21z/srefloop.html There’s still a lot of spread here, I don’t think an ARW6-like solution can be completely ruled out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Hi-Res NAM surface maps say it's all rain for everyone outside of the mountains. Just remember that 6z was pretty much dry as a bone. Can go anywhere from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Snow sounding for CLT at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Hi-Res NAM surface maps say it's all rain for everyone outside of the mountains. Just remember that 6z was pretty much dry as a bone. Can go anywhere from here. Yeah, 18z GFS was indeterminate on the nonogram for most of the 0.15 that fell, likely liquid :-(. Worry about that in another 24 hrs, one would think with the NAMs look at H5 more precip would be thrown back, but nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 0z NAM would be a few hours of snowfall for the North Carolina foothills and over to Hickory... I personally would want to see this cut off along the Savannah River Basin instead of the Central Carolinas. Now if that happened, it could get very interesting around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Snow sounding for CLT at 48 Interesting on the NAM it did look like it was cold enough with just the SFC maps. Yeah, 18z GFS was indeterminate on the nonogram for most of the 0.15 that fell, likely liquid :-(. Worry about that in another 24 hrs, one would think with the NAMs look at H5 more precip would be thrown back, but nope. My guess is this gets wetter the closer we get. Euro has kept it wet..not crazy wet obviously but better than the GFS and NAM. They are probably just now catching on? Guess we'll soon find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The trend is certainly favorable, but that's just modelology. My guess is that this first wave won't produce outside of the mountains, but future ones may do better with the cold air that'll be moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 That's an incredible look on the NAM with the 500mb wave closing off and going negative...a little too late though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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