mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Day 15 storms always show up.Kind of like Metal663 at a Walmart grand opening in Waycross . This " event" never looked that exciting for the western Carolinas anyway. It's hard to get excited about any wintry precip not coming from the southwest or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Kind of like Metal663 at a Walmart grand opening in Waycross . This " event" never looked that exciting for the western Carolinas anyway. It's hard to get excited about any wintry precip not coming from the southwest or south. Agree. I have not been excited anything weather related so far this winter. Two snow flurries in Nov. isn't exactly something that stirs the blood. Still time though, but a lot of things need to change to give us more than a chance at a perfectly timed drive by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The 6z GFS is basically dry for the Wednesday night event. The NAM still shows enough precip to give a lot of NC folks 1 to maybe two inches of snow. Virginia would be the winner. As RAH states the Euro still has the storm development with more precip. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 315 AM MONDAY... A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AMPLIFIES THE LONG WAVE TROF WHICH IS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE STRONG...BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE THIN WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. POTENTIAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL THUS BE VERY LIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE LIFT WILL BE CONCENTRATED BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z BY VERTICAL PHASING OF A STRONG UPPER JET LIFTING OUT OF THE TROF AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. SATURATION IS LIMITED TO ABOUT 10-12KFT WHICH IS WELL WITHIN THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE...SO PRECIP LOOKS TO START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWEST AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. UNCERTAINTY AS TO TAPERING OFF THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE ECMWF REMAINS FAIRLY EMPHATIC ABOUT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. WILL STRETCH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST ACCORDINGLY. FORECAST HIGHS WEDNSDAY WILL BE BASED ON EARLY PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED EVAPORATIVE COOLING PREVENTING MUCH WARMUP AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND THUS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE MOS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S...WITH UPPER 40S EAST. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL MODERATE ONLY SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THURSDAY AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TRAJECTORY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT WILL PRODUCE PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND COLD FORECAST WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SATURDAY AND 40S SUNDAY. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I wonder if the 12z suit of models will finally pick up on the S/W max coming through and give better feedback. The s/w in question should be over BC, Canada roughly right about now. But the GFS is dry, Nam is a little wetter and the Nam hire is wetter too. I think that the strength is one question and how much moisture is going to be available along the coast is another question. Both GFS,NAM,Nam Hire all to a degree vary on the amount of moisture streaming along the coast. If the plume of moisture is closer to the coast as the s/w dives and rounds the trough that will be a major factor on how much moisture this s/w can pull in. Notice how close or how far the moisture axis is from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 12Z nam says what system? But nam hi res does develop light post frontal precip still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 12Z GFS much wetter for WNC even in the foothills. North Georgia folks will really like hour 51 on the GFS. Very good run. Hope this is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The 6z GFS is basically dry for the Wednesday night event. The NAM still shows enough precip to give a lot of NC folks 1 to maybe two inches of snow. Virginia would be the winner. As RAH states the Euro still has the storm development with more precip. 48 hours away and we still don't know what we will get. The good thing is it sounds like we have the NAM and Euro on our side. I would love 1 to 2 inches of snow, but only expecting some flurries to a dusting at most Wednesday night. Maybe the Euro will be right, though, and we'll see the other models trend wetter. Just have to wait and see. We have the cold this time, we just need the precip. Also thought this bit from RAH was interesting for Friday as well. Maybe something else to watch. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TRAJECTORY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT WILL PRODUCE PRECIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Keeps it right on through hour 60. very light but it is on the model 12Z GFS much wetter for WNC even in the foothills. North Georgia folks will really like hour 51 on the GFS. Very good run. Hope this is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Here's hoping for a few token flakes Wednesday for parts of Alabama & Georgia. The lastest GFS certainly looks good and the latest RPM had a nice hit for north Georgia and a swath of snow make it from NW Alabama, through Birmingham and into the Columbus area. We'll see how much moisture is actually associated with this front, but trends are promising... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 48 hours away and we still don't know what we will get. The good thing is it sounds like we have the NAM and Euro on our side. I would love 1 to 2 inches of snow, but only expecting some flurries to a dusting at most Wednesday night. Maybe the Euro will be right, though, and we'll see the other models trend wetter. Just have to wait and see. We have the cold this time, we just need the precip. Also thought this bit from RAH was interesting for Friday as well. Maybe something else to watch. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TRAJECTORY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT WILL PRODUCE PRECIP. I think if we're going to get snow, anytime soon, it's going to be from weaker/smaller systems. Until we get some blocking larger storms would probably cut to our west. So these small potentials are the best thing the models can be showing us at this time. **of course you can get the perfect setup but odds are low for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 12Z GFS much wetter for WNC even in the foothills. North Georgia folks will really like hour 51 on the GFS. Very good run. Hope this is a trend. I do really like it but I'm sure there are a thousand reasons why it won't happen. I would like to see a little more support before I start paying too much attention. It's been awhile since Cheeze said anything so I have my doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I do really like it but I'm sure there are a thousand reasons why it won't happen. I would like to see a little more support before I start paying too much attention. It's been awhile since Cheeze said anything so I have my doubts. Looks decent! I would wrap this run up and put it under the tree. Hopefully this thing can trend to a little more QPF as most systems have recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Hey, not a bad sounding at CLT: Date: 60 hour AVN valid 0Z THU 16 JAN 14 Station: KCLT Latitude: 35.22 Longitude: -80.93 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 98 SFC 987 206 1.3 -2.9 74 4.2 -0.4 349 11 275.5 276.0 273.5 284.0 3.12 2 950 509 -1.4 -5.7 73 4.3 -2.9 347 20 275.8 276.2 272.9 283.1 2.63 3 900 937 -4.2 -7.9 75 3.7 -5.4 340 22 277.2 277.6 273.3 283.8 2.34 4 850 1386 -6.1 -7.7 88 1.6 -6.7 308 11 279.7 280.2 275.0 286.8 2.51 5 800 1859 -8.8 -9.4 95 0.6 -8.9 250 12 281.8 282.2 275.9 288.5 2.35 6 750 2355 -12.5 -13.8 90 1.3 -12.9 235 15 283.0 283.3 275.7 288.1 1.75 7 700 2879 -15.4 -27.8 34 12.3 -17.6 228 21 285.4 285.5 275.2 287.1 0.56 8 650 3434 -18.2 -40.1 13 21.9 -20.7 221 31 288.4 288.5 276.2 289.0 0.18 9 600 4030 -19.5 -49.6 5 30.2 -22.1 216 47 293.6 293.6 278.6 293.8 0.07 10 550 4674 -21.3 -47.2 8 25.9 -23.8 214 64 298.8 298.8 281.0 299.1 0.10 11 500 5372 -24.8 -47.0 11 22.1 -26.8 211 76 302.8 302.8 282.7 303.2 0.11 12 450 6129 -30.6 -50.1 13 19.6 -31.9 210 83 304.8 304.8 283.4 305.1 0.09 13 400 6957 -35.2 -52.9 15 17.7 -36.2 208 93 309.2 309.2 285.1 309.5 0.07 14 350 7880 -38.6 -56.2 14 17.6 -39.4 206 103 316.7 316.7 287.7 316.9 0.05 15 300 8930 -42.2 -60.6 12 18.4 -42.9 208 106 325.9 325.9 290.6 326.0 0.04 16 250 10157 -43.7 -65.7 7 22.0 -44.4 214 96 341.2 341.2 294.6 341.3 0.02 17 200 11645 -47.4 -69.0 7 21.6 -48.0 217 84 357.7 357.7 298.2 357.8 0.02 18 150 13525 -52.1 -73.8 6 21.7 -52.6 226 79 380.3 380.3 302.3 380.3 0.01 19 100 16100 -59.5 -78.4 7 18.9 -59.9 225 69 412.7 412.7 306.9 412.7 0.01 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 12Z GFS much wetter for WNC even in the foothills. North Georgia folks will really like hour 51 on the GFS. Very good run. Hope this is a trend. Despite 850mb temps, boundary layer temps look to be an issue, especially east of the mountains as usual where the mountains are blocking the low level caa. At hour 54 although 850mb temps are below freezing, you have 950mb temps of 4c in the far western foothills to 6 to 8c for the rest of nc. So by the time the low levels are cold enough the precip looks to be mostly over for the carolinas. If there is a changeover, it looks like it will only be for the foothills/mountains at the very tail end. central and eastern nc stay way too warm. As for georgia, will be facing boundary layer issues as well but there looks to be a little better chance of it to end as snow, north and west of 85 But what little precip there is a good portion of it looks to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 CMC is looking wetter for Wed into Thursday storm. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Both our local news channels in house animated models showed a band of precip coming thru on Wed a m , and it was rain imby, but looked to have snow down around Athens on the back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The canadian, 2 runs in a row, has formed a low in the lee side of the mountains. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It's hard to believe that with a vort that strong, taking that track, that the area is going to get blanked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The canadian, 2 runs in a row, has formed a low in the lee side of the mountains. Something to watch. The Lee-Side Trof has been very good to me in the past! I'd take one of those and call it a good Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 From what I can see on the latest models, we will have the same problem with this shot as we did with the precip with the big arctic front- as the cold air rushes in will there be a period of snow before it dries out late Tues night/Wed AM. NW GA, AL and eastern TN have the best chance, the GFS, Canadian and RPM suggest that the ATL Metro will be the dividing line as is ofter the case. RPM is the most gung ho with snow but it overdid the last threat. I think I will see snow, but accumulations more than a dusting are not that likely unless you live pretty far NW of the Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 CMC also showing promise for this weekend though I'm not sure that goes in this thread...or does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Euro out to 96 looks like it's about to do something fun. We'll see where it goes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 How does the Wednesday/Thursday event look Burger? Hard to tell from the 24 hr panels from eWall...it's a fast mover. Just wondering if it was in line with the last two runs showing a more substantial system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Out to 108 on the Euro it looks wetter and looks better at 5h but sfc temps look like they might be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 How does the Wednesday/Thursday event look Burger? Hard to tell from the 24 hr panels from eWall...it's a fast mover. Just wondering if it was in line with the last two runs showing a more substantial system? Better than the GFS and very quick moving...not as wet as the CMC but it's still something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 UP to 0.5" of qpf in the NC piedmont.. temps marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 @114 looks like .25 - .50 across much of WNC. Again SFC temps aren't quite there but wetter than last nights run. Nice bullseye right over HKY for the money spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Better than the GFS and very quick moving...not as wet as the CMC but it's still something. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 According to the SV map CLT and points north get a half inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It then spins up to smash the SNE with what looks like a classic nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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