Poimen Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The NAM is too warm and it really doesn't look like the EURO anyway. It's also not in the same time frame as the EURO, which implied our little snow system at hour ~96. If the Euro is right and precip falls in the pre-dawn hours Thursday, then obviously that is better for snow, especially if we get a little wound up at 500MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The problem is while we're cold enough at 850, we're above freezing below that level all the way to the surface. Significantly above freezing. Yeah soundings is where it's at...a little too excitement for a minimal QPF event like this one, with one run support. I can't wait until we get a real storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The problem is while we're cold enough at 850, we're above freezing below that level all the way to the surface. Significantly above freezing. Until the cold is forced to the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Yeah soundings is where it's at...a little too excitement for a minimal QPF event like this one, with one run support. I can't wait until we get a real storm to track. I agree...Hopefully it'll come this winter at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Until the cold is forced to the surface That's unlikely with surface temps starting in the 40s and only light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Keep it on topic folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Yeah, but this is the best look at this event we have seen yet. The trends are getting better. Looking at 700mb rh shows a brief window of good snow growth between 66h and 72h. Definitely worth discussing. Sweet !!! Let ride the train... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 That's unlikely with surface temps starting in the 40s and only light precip. It's called cold advection, and the 850s are cold enough to support snow, and I know here in my area srf temps do not have to be all that cold for it to snow here. If cold advection takes over and drops it to 36/37 it would be snow, I've seen it snow here many a time with a srf temp around say 37 as long as upper level temps support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Looks like all rain on the soundings for this area. Nothing to see here. What is the sounding for CLT at 72h? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 NAM does look better but it still shows nothing but rain. As other have stated the Euro depiction is what we need; basically for precip to occur past hour 81 or so. Select NAM and then temperature and or Winter(for snow accumulations) http://www.twisterdata.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Even though this is just one model run... a step in the right direction stronger system and more expansive precip shield. Thermal profile soundings is questionable from 18z. Depending on the amount of dry air above should allow for evaporative cooling. Really it appears that the freezing level is only about 1500 feet with the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 RAH afternoon discussion keeps my interest up: FOR WED THROUGH THU: AN INTERESTING FORECAST. MODELS AGREE OVERALLON THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CULMINATING IN A NARROWING ANDSTRONGLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERNSTATES. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF... AND THELATTER TWO ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRENGTHENINGVORTICITY CENTER DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH BASE OVER SRN GA WEDEVENING. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER WITHITS 12Z RUN... AND AS A RESULT IT GENERATES A SURFACE LOW EVENCLOSER TO THE NC COAST THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE ECMWF THEN BOMBSTHIS LOW JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS THU MORNING AS THE STRONGESTVORTICITY WITHIN THE TROUGH BASE SWINGS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITHA NEGATIVE TILT. THE PREVIOUS ECMWF GENERATED A SURFACE LOW BUT WASMUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE... AND THE GFS (WHICH HAS A SIMILAR MID LEVELPATTERN BUT WITHOUT THE STRONG NEG TILT) BY THU MORNING HAS KICKEDTHE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL OFFSHORE WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR NC. THE12Z ECMWF`S SOLUTION IS ENOUGH OF A DEPARTURE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNTO LOWER OUR CONFIDENCE IN IT... BUT REGARDLESS... THIS MID LEVELPATTERN IN GENERAL CONTINUES TO BE AN ACTIVE AND ANOMALOUS ONE... SOTHIS SITUATION DOES BEAR WATCHING IN THE COMING DAYS. WILL STAY WITHLOW CHANCE POPS... WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTINGFORECAST... BRINGING LOW CHANCES INTO THE NW EARLY WED BEFORESHIFTING THESE CHANCES EAST THEN OUT IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLYEVENING. THE GFS HAS LOW COVERAGE AND QPF... A REFLECTION OF HOWMOISTURE-STARVED THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE WITH WEAK MOISTURE INFLUX...HOWEVER WE`VE SEEN MANY TIMES THAT A STRONGLY FORCED SYSTEM LIKETHIS CAN PRODUCE MASS IMBALANCE AND VIGOROUS LIFT THAT COULD LEAD TORAPID SATURATION WHERE THERE OTHERWISE WOULD BE NONE. THE MOISTURESHOULD ALL BE BENEATH 700 MB WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH THEAPPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS(INCLUDING WET BULB PROFILE) AREAWIDE SUPPORT THIS STARTING AS AVERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX (WITH TYPE BEING DRIVEN BY LIFT AND PRECIPRATES) BEFORE TRENDING TO MOSTLY VERY LIGHT SNOW AS THE COLDER AIRARRIVES AND NEAR-SURFACE WET BULB TEMP DROPS TO NEAR FREEZING. ATTHIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT PRECIP EVENT WITHFEW TO NO CONSEQUENCES. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WED NIGHT AND MOSTLYSUNNY THU AS ANOTHER MILD SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THEGULF COAST AND FL. BUT AGAIN... IF THE ECMWF IS ONTO SOMETHING...THIS FORECAST COULD CHANGE. WILL STAY WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCEFOR HIGHS WED WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDYSKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS FROM THE LOW 40S TO AROUND 50. LOWS24-28. HIGHS 43-47 THU WITH A COOL AND STABLE COLUMN. WE MAY SEEINCREASING MID CLOUDS LATE THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 GFS is a big swing and a miss. On to the 0Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Until the cold is forced to the surface I don't even know how to respond to this. The column is saturated with no way to cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I don't even know how to respond to this. The column is saturated with no way to cool off. I guess he is referring to the latent heat absorption of melting snow as it falls through the lower layers. this would require higher precip rates than are currently being shown. A near freezing isothermal sounding can result from an above freezing saturated layer as snow falls through it provided that there is no warm air advection to negate the effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The sounding at 72 hours isn't supportive of snow either. It's a 36/36 rn sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 still looks like the lee side screw job is still on, very light amounts (irregardless of temps). until i see a more southern storm, or a nice juicy gulf low these waves from the west or nw just dont do it for a lot of ne ga, the upstate and just east of the nc mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 This pattern the past few days has reminded me of the Inauguration storm from 6 years ago. I don't have the maps but I remember it was not modeled until nearly 2 days prior to the event and even just before the storm models were only spitting out 0.1 or 0.2 of precip. Needless to say in the Triangle it turned into a nice event. Not saying it will happen this time, although if trends on todays Euro are right it certainly has similarities with the trailing vorticity really strengthening on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 00z NAM is dry as a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 00z NAM is dry as a bone. You mean to tell me the LR NAM made a drastic change? What?! Man, I just saw the euro for Saturday. That really looks like something we could work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 You mean to tell me the LR NAM made a drastic change? What?! Man, I just saw the euro for Saturday. That really looks like something we could work with. Shocked I'm sure. Maybe the God's will smile upon us and give us a surprise since the Panthers lost to the refs today. I just hope the Euro keeps that look and is sniffing something out instead of being on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 This pattern the past few days has reminded me of the Inauguration storm from 6 years ago. I don't have the maps but I remember it was not modeled until nearly 2 days prior to the event and even just before the storm models were only spitting out 0.1 or 0.2 of precip. Needless to say in the Triangle it turned into a nice event. Not saying it will happen this time, although if trends on todays Euro are right it certainly has similarities with the trailing vorticity really strengthening on the coast. There was an Inauguration storm 6 years ago, in January 2008 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 NAM explodes with precip after it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 There was an Inauguration storm 6 years ago, in January 2008 ?For the consul of the American States, United. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 00z GFS is pretty poop too. Then precip really fills in off the coast, but still light precip. Sorry guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Let's see if the weekend potential is still there, and the day 15 storm still showing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 There was an Inauguration storm 6 years ago, in January 2008 ? January 20, 2009, around 6 inches fell at RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Let's see if the weekend potential is still there, and the day 15 storm still showing up? Day 15 storms always show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Let's see if the weekend potential is still there, and the day 15 storm still showing up? The answer through 120 is no...but there is another clipper coming right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Day 15 storms always show up.To the contrary, they never actually show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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