Shawn Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Warmer at 850, but defintely better than the other GFS runs of late. Edit: In fact, with that extra bit of energy to the West, this was a huge step toward the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Gfs looks much better at 500! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Sounds like the trend for the NAM and GFS is looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The problem we're really fighting is the flow I don't think is going to do much to change the energy from being positively tilted. We need it to go negative to really get something good and it doesn't look like it will. Maybe though some of us can get lucky under some convective snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Sounds like the trend for the NAM and GFS is looking better. Please clarify how it's a trend towards the NAM. Would love to get your insight on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 500mb wave / vort is taking a good track, but it needs to come down in one piece...looks like it is going to be a multi-piece-er, lol. 1st piece of energy goes across the Great Lakes, 2nd piece tracks into the mid-atlantic, and last piece digs south...we need more of it to head south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Yeah it wouldn't have to dig much to put us upstate folks in the game! Atleast the trends are looking a little better for us all. Dig baby dig! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Not having a -NAO is really rearing it's head lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Please clarify how it's a trend towards the NAM. Would love to get your insight on that. I think he was saying the trend for the NAM "and" the GFS is getting better meaning both models took steps towards a better setup.....or at least that's how I read his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I think he was saying the trend for the NAM "and" the GFS is getting better meaning both models took steps towards a better setup.....or at least that's how I read what he meant. Oh I don't care what he was saying, I just want him to actually put some meat behind it and explain. He is such a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Looking back at 12z vs 00z; I think that energy from LA is on both. 00z seems a bit more robust with it. Edit; also seems to be there on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Not having a -NAO is really rearing it's head lately.Someone said in the main weather discussion forum that we have had a - NAO for 9 consecutive days apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Someone said in the main weather discussion forum that we have had a - NAO for 9 consecutive days apparently. Oh. Okay. Well, I must admit the 21z SREF members don't look half bad at h500. The mean ptype etc even has light snow as far south and east across GA through the end of the run. A few members look really good though for the energy track. One is wanting to go from neutral to negative all the way back into LA. Now if only we can get a good evolution and agreement to get more people some Winter weather from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Cmc is much deeper with the trough. Digs it farther west too. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Cmc is much deeper with the trough. Digs it farther west too. Baby steps. Too bad a Low doesn't try to pop though. From the low resolution classic maps I have at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Oh. Okay. Well, I must admit the 21z SREF members don't look half bad at h500. The mean ptype etc even has light snow as far south and east across GA through the end of the run. A few members look really good though for the energy track. One is wanting to go from neutral to negative all the way back into LA. Now if only we can get a good evolution and agreement to get more people some Winter weather from this. I guess it really doesn't matter that it has been negative for 9 days because it has been extremely weakly negative. Basically neutral. We need a - NAO <-1SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 MeteoStar says not even rain Why do u want rain? We have had enough. For once i would like my 6 yr old to be able to go out and play on the weekend. Forget rain. If its gonna be above freezing give me sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 O6z GFS is another step toward something good. At 500 the trough digs a little deeper, more blocking, and it is taking on a more negative tilt than the 0z run. Also looks slightly better in terms of precip. These are good trends folks. It is not far from a nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 My phone got retarded. Sry for triple post. No worries Flo! I agreed with you three times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 O6z GFS is another step toward something good. At 500 the trough digs a little deeper, more blocking, and it is taking on a more negative tilt than the 0z run. Also looks slightly better in terms of precip. These are good trends folks. It is not far from a nice little event. Yep still not there yet, all those pieces kind of phase at the wrong times...but like you said it def. still needs to be watched. If that qpf can go up just a little bit someone will get a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Flizzard in the RAH area Wednesday? This morning's AFD... A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS TRENDED MUCH STRONGER AND FARTHERSOUTH IN NWP GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH ANAREA OF CONCENTRATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 150METERS NOW FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS GA AND SC - A FAVORABLE TRACK FORLIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH OTHERWISE MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT. SO AFTER A DRY AFTERNOON...WEWILL INTRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOWOVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE AREMAXIMIZED WITH THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH.THIS POTENTIAL BEARS WATCHING...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VERYLIGHT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Here is part of GSP's overnight: AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST...GUIDANCESOLUTIONS SEEM TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO FEATURE PLACEMENTOF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. A FAST MOVING CLIPPERSYSTEM WILL DIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THETENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NCMOUNTAIN ZONES EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING LEADING TO INCREASINGPOPS. THERMAL PROFILES WILL ALREADY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWSHOWERS...HOWEVER LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNINGTHEREBY INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS. ATTHIS TIME...EXPECTING MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TOREMAIN ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A FEWGUIDANCE SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPSCONVECTIVE BANDS COULD ESCAPE THE MOUNTAINS AND ENTER INTO THEFOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NC. FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT THISWITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THAT SAID AMENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THEFORECAST. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 5-8DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY LATE IN THEAFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPERPASSES THROUGH THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Here's what Blacksburg thinks for their NC Mountain locations: ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 SREF members are still looking good. Some of them are a downright snow storm for a portion of the southeast. The mean is now digging the energy all the way to the gulf coast. This is quite a contrast from the NAM/GFS. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500US_9z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 12z nam shows an 18 hr nwf event for the mountains but thats about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 SREF plume's starting to show snow signals even in RDU for this time period. From the last run GSO's mean hops, as does HKY and CLT. For GSP a similar dance is also taking place, and it looks as though even more members in ATL are coming on board for at least a dusting. Sw & parts of SE VA looks to be primed for snow also. The SREF is catching onto something, lets see if the trend continues. RDU SREF Plume's: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140112&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=RDU&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=36.057706907536044&mLON=-79.89062499999999&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I really don't ever hear much talk about the SREF, nor do I look at it myself that much. Is it at all reliable compared to the GFS, NAM, ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I really don't ever hear much talk about the SREF, nor do I look at it myself that much. Is it at all reliable compared to the GFS, NAM, ECMWF? It is an ensemble forecast system that is used frequently within aviation. It takes into account its 21 members and then provides a mean solution based off that data. Seems to be pretty reliable even though I have only been watching it for a couple of months so maybe others can weigh in, but I like it because it shows how much uncertainty there is within the atmosphere and models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 SREF is basically the NAM ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I really don't ever hear much talk about the SREF, nor do I look at it myself that much. Is it at all reliable compared to the GFS, NAM, ECMWF? Yes, it is a model worthy of consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.