calculus1 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I think this is going to be a wait for the NAM to around 48 hours if we can pull a flu said out of this I'll be happy. Sent from my HTC One ??? Can you clarify this, Burger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I think this is going to be a wait for the NAM to around 48 hours if we can pull a flu said out of this I'll be happy. Sent from my HTC One ??? Can you clarify this, Burger? Lol should have been flizzard damn auto correct! Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 LOL!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Lol should have been flizzard damn auto correct! Sent from my HTC One I figured, but I could not piece together what word it should have been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 wow where is all the chatter about the upcoming snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Things aren't looking to bad for that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 wow where is all the chatter about the upcoming snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Things aren't looking to bad for that time frame. Currently the models are scattered and showing different solutions every run. I think we are just waiting on a little consistancy within two or three runs instead of hugging the one or two runs a day that are showing snow. The gfs has been hinting at some development in this timeframe but it has also consistantly lost the energy or weakened it considerably. For me the main positive seems to be the abundance of cold air that is potentially available. Being in the mountains this week frisk, we should be treated though as I see a much better shot of seeing meaningful flakes. But we will keep that in the mountain thread to avoid gloating if we are the only winners lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 84hr 12z Nam is intriguing. It has the parcel in question dropping almost due south into eastern texas. It looks like it might would have went as far south as the gulf coast before swinging through. The trough in general also looks much sharper than it does on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 84hr 12z Nam is intriguing. It has the parcel in question dropping almost due south into eastern texas. It looks like it might would have went as far south as the gulf coast before swinging through. The trough in general also looks much sharper than it does on the GFS.noticed that too. Fingers crossed it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 On the 12z there is some flurry action in Myrtle Beach. Looks better than the 6z run this morning but still not much moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 wow where is all the chatter about the upcoming snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Things aren't looking to bad for that time frame. i think some of us are in the obs thread with this mornings storms. i really didnt think there would be any imby with the usual wedge/set up. i got caught off guard (at least i think a few others did too haha thats not usual). now i think the old wives tale thunder in january winter weather in what a week or ten days haha. this has been some volatile weather - would love some snow or even ice at this point, but have to say glad mother nature is cooperating enough to give us some interesting weather lately haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 12Z GFS doesn't look too bad for my backyard. Nice QPF over WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I keep thinking eventually one of these over performing (qpf wise) rain events that we have been getting on a weekly basis since mid November is gonna roll through the SE when it's cold enough for snow. Usually it's on the weekend. Seems like it's rained every weekend since late Nov/ early Dec. I've never seen a pattern in such a repeat mode last so long. Cold, warms up right before it rains, then turns cold right afterwards. Think we have a good shot at seeing some flakes Wed. The euro and Nam over the next 3-4 runs this weekend will confirm this or let us know if where chasing fools gold again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 12Z GFS doesn't look too bad for my backyard. Nice QPF over WNC. This only looks good for NC as per this model run, we will see,. The euro will be telling, as this should be in its wheelhouse ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The GEM says, "get out of here SE, no snow for you outside of the Mtns. this week" and probably much longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The GEM says, "get out of here SE, no snow for you outside of the Mtns. this week" and probably much longer Good news here. It has shown snow and ice several times this season and has been wrong every time. I think we have a good shot at something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Good news here. It has shown snow and ice several times this season and has been wrong every time. I think we have a good shot at something here. When weighed alongside the rest of the guidance, the GGEM is probably on the right path. There is a consensus at this point that those of us outside of the higher terrain will find it difficult to see any snow this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Word for the wise: Flow too fast and no blocking. We got to have that to change and we still don't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Good news here. It has shown snow and ice several times this season and has been wrong every time. I think we have a good shot at something here. You know better than this when the models show no snow they are ALWAYS right even 10 days out, its only when they show snow that they can be wrong even when inside 48 hrs. In this pattern if we do get snow it will be from something the models don't pick up on till its inside 48 hrs or so, some rogue poorly modeled S/W that digs a bit more than shown and isn't even seen until it gets sampled over western Canada/US etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Good news here. It has shown snow and ice several times this season and has been wrong every time. I think we have a good shot at something here. That just means it's right this time. A lot easier for it to get no snow right than it showing snow that far out and it actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 Yes, this will not be a big snow event, never thought it would be. But if the 500MB vort max digs enough and the precip falls overnight and into early Wed, have some hope for a dusting to 1/2 inch in ATL, 1-2" mountains. Euro is similar with the track of the vorticity, that is the key. Hey, you takes what you gets in the ATL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The 15z SREF members look mighty interesting... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500US_15z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Quite a few GFS members (plume maps) want it to snow in KCAE off this little event too. Temps most likely not an issue for anyone further North for sure based off this dipiction way down here. It's around 8 members showing snow and one even showing ZR to end. Anderson has 14+ members showing snow. This is based off the 12z btw. I wouldn't mind seeing the models start to dig this quite a good bit South for the ineviditble North trend right at the last few model runs with nothing to help us currently. The SREF does have quite a few members trying to super dig it, and I'm a fan of that! Most likely a Northern GA (maybe down to ATL or a little South) /Upstate SC/NC event with some coastal areas of NC/SC seeing some Winter weather albeit light. KCAE is pretty doomed this year it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Here is the traditional JMA from 12z: (hey, at least it's not the DGEX) Looks pretty good for Central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 18z GFS member plumes while still showing something for KCAE, are a lot less interesting and basically nothing much more than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 18z GFS member plumes while still showing something for KCAE, are a lot less interesting and basically nothing much more than rain. MeteoStar says not even rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 MeteoStar says not even rain NAM looks much different @ h5 than GFS from 18z. In fact, NAM has snow trying to spread down to ATL as of it's 84th hour on 00z. Didn't take a look at temps though. 2m Wetbulbs were cold through KCAE at that time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 NAM looks much different @ h5 than GFS from 18z. In fact, NAM has snow trying to spread down to ATL as of it's 84th hour on 00z. Didn't take a look at temps though. 2m Wetbulbs were cold through KCAE at that time though. Yeah, NAM wants to dig that energy much farther south and the GFS wants to flatten it out. Don't know who will be right, but I am leaning toward a more southern track than the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 00z GFS is going to come in much slower and further West it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 00z GFS looks better but probably still not going to get the job done. Vort is further south but it still needs to dig more out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Wow 00z has a nice piece of energy separated out around LA. Not strong enough to do much but it might be something to watch if it continues to show up in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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