mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Hey, I'm all for it! That's the frustrating part, we had a decent snow in 04 or 05 that produced about 3 inches, and it was 40 when it started and finished at 33. All these heavy rains at 33-35 get depressing to snow lovers! We just need the right thermal profiles and such. I would love to just see white on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Man we are desparate for snow threats. Punt to February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'm not sure why everybody is saying the moisture is north of us when places like GSO and INT get over half an inch of QPF. I was referring to the 06z GFS not being on board with the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Moisture starved for the Carolinas, that is. It doesn't make me happy that the GFS is already north with the lift and precip. I agree not worried about the moisture. But my biggest concern is the bolded. What if both models are wrong and the S/W doesn't dive SE as much. That leaves ultimately a southerly breeze with rain. I kind of find it hard to imagine as progressive this pattern has been that a s/w can ride over transient riding dive that much and possibly attempt to close off. But guess its wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I agree not worried about the moisture. But my biggest concern is the bolded. What if both models are wrong and the S/W doesn't dive SE as much. That leaves ultimately a southerly breeze with rain. I kind of find it hard to imagine as progressive this pattern has been that a s/w can ride over transient riding dive that much and possibly attempt to close off. But guess its wait and see. I don't disagree, but it'll depend on how the PNA ridge evolves (its placement/orientation/amplitude), the strength of the s/w, and the proximity of the kicker on its tail. Progressive has been the way to go, i.e, less digging, but we've got a better western ridge this time, so who knows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 12Z Euro looks somewhat similar, still has a snow shower threat northern AL, extreme north GA, eastern TN, far northern SC, western NC, western/central VA. Best shot at snow outside of higher elev is northern AL, eastern TN, maybe western NC. 1-4" amounts except mountains. Probably some wet snow ATL, would have a hard time sticking. This is Euro verbatim. Again, no huge deal probably but its better than a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 RAH's afternoon discussion provides a little hope for at least some snow showers. A WNW LOW LEVEL FLOWFOLLOWS FOR TUE NIGHT/WED AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTICITY DIVES INTOTHE MIDSOUTH AND NRN GULF STATES BEFORE SWINGING ENE INTO THE WRNCAROLINAS. WITH THIS FEATURE THE GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER WITHTHIS ENERGY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF BUT IS STILL LESS AMPLIFIED... ANDAS A RESULT THE ECMWF HAS LESS OF A DRYING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDCOMPONENT... A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INFLUX OPPORTUNITY... ANDGREATER HEIGHT FALLS... AND HENCE IT GENERATES MORE PRECIPESPECIALLY OVER NRN/WRN NC THAN THE GFS. BASED ON PARTIALTHICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH MODELS... ANY PRECIPWOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE SNOWSHOWERS... LIKELYMIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS WHERE THE SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. REGARDLESS...WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE LOW SIDE WED AS WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A CHILLYAIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Well, the 18z GFS still has the threat but it's only light. plenty of time for this thing to dig deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Hard to get excited about a glorified clipper! Robert mentioned a few times in his write up how this COULD produce for NGa / NC/VA. Completely leaves out mention of SC?!! How does it skip over ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I like where we are this far out. every time models show a foot or more we get excited o lay to see it turn to 33 and rain. Plenty of time to add on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Our time is coming Powerstroke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Hard to get excited about a glorified clipper! Robert mentioned a few times in his write up how this COULD produce for NGa / NC/VA. Completely leaves out mention of SC?!! How does it skip over ? Down-sloping effects can be strange, but in this case it looks like areas west of the apps get snow. Then you have to get farther north on the east side closer to the better forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Our time is coming Powerstroke Yep I'm not concerned but not excited until I see a block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 To my untrained eye, looks like temps won't be an issue! Looks a little dry, but trends have been to get wetter as we get closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Time to get the snow shovel out! Just kidding. No this really could get better. At least we have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I just don't see much hope with this one, especially if the GFS is in the ballpark with a broad surface low developing to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 There is also the chance that as the main thrust of cold air moves in a storm could spin up and deposit more general snow in parts of the South and along the East coast this time, instead of the Midwest. This is from Accuweather this evening. Think this is for late next week which some models have shown a hint of snow for around the 17/18 timeframe for n. ga. wnc and upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I just don't see much hope with this one, especially if the GFS is in the ballpark with a broad surface low developing to our north. Exactly... we need the s/w max and associated SLP to dig and develop further south.. alot further south. As is now... imho anything that would be snow chances is in Northern VA, DC, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 RAH's afternoon discussion provides a little hope for at least some snow showers. A WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW FOLLOWS FOR TUE NIGHT/WED AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTICITY DIVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AND NRN GULF STATES BEFORE SWINGING ENE INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. WITH THIS FEATURE THE GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH THIS ENERGY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF BUT IS STILL LESS AMPLIFIED... AND AS A RESULT THE ECMWF HAS LESS OF A DRYING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT... A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INFLUX OPPORTUNITY... AND GREATER HEIGHT FALLS... AND HENCE IT GENERATES MORE PRECIP ESPECIALLY OVER NRN/WRN NC THAN THE GFS. BASED ON PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH MODELS... ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE SNOWSHOWERS... LIKELY MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS WHERE THE SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED ABOVE- FREEZING LAYER IS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. REGARDLESS... WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE LOW SIDE WED AS WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. Anything would be great at this point. But it appears it is going to be hard to beat the same pattern we have seen all winter of cold and dry, warms up, rains, and gets cold and dry again. The monsoon we had today is just a kick in the stomach after all the cold we had this week. But maybe tomorrow could be the start of the change. Maybe the severe threat for tomorrow will set things in motion and will cause the rubberband to snap back. It certainly is something different that we have not seen this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Anything would be great at this point. But I think we're going to see the same pattern we have seen all winter. Just like this week, it gets cold and dry, warms up, rains, and gets cold and dry again. The monsoon we had today is just a kick in the stomach after all the cold we had this week. So tired of cold and dry or plain rain. I'm ready for some sunny and warm days for a change. Might as well root for that because we're not going to see snow. Come on man. You have to be kidding me. The pattern has changed dramatically since early winter..... We went from a very positive AO and a -PNA (torch early Dec) to a -AO and a positive PNA (bitter cold outbreak) in January. Obviously you have not been paying attention. Give the winter a chance to show its' hand first. As far as this upcoming event, I would not rule out anything just yet. Remember, the last 2 runs of the Euro were not far from something good. Let's just watch the trends to see if this is the real deal or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Come on man. You have to be kidding me. The pattern has changed dramatically since early winter..... We went from a very positive AO and a -PNA (torch early Dec) to a -AO and a positive PNA (bitter cold outbreak) in January. Obviously you have not been paying attention. Give the winter a chance to show its' hand first. As far as this upcoming event, I would not rule out anything just yet. Remember, the last 2 runs of the Euro were not far from something good. Let's just watch the trends to see if this is the real deal or not. I edited that because it sounded more like a rant than anything, but the result we have gotten lately has been on repeat. It might have been warm in early December, but we have been stuck on this pattern of cold and dry, warms up some, rains, and then gets cold and dry again for a few weeks now. But maybe the severe weather threat for tomorrow is the game changer and will be the start of what we need to get for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I edited that because it sounded more like a rant than anything, but the result we have gotten lately has been on repeat. It might have been warm in early December, but we have been stuck on this pattern of cold and dry, warms up some, rains, and then gets cold and dry again for a few weeks now. But maybe the severe weather threat for tomorrow is the game changer and will be the start of what we need to get for snow. The severe wont be a game changer. We had severe at the panthers game the other weekend, and still no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The severe wont be a game changer. We had severe at the panthers game the other weekend, and still no snow. That is for sure. And really unless the wedge breaks might not be much of a severe threat at all expect right at the coast. The wedge is holding strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Onboard with the best chance for parts of the SE to see meaningful SN since winter started 12/1 inside a 5 day guidance window, warm and fuzzy if SVR potential tomorrow over-performs, delta T. Finally had a chance to check out the 12z guidance, namely the ECMWF @ H5 on Wundermap, we are going to want some separation with these two initial short waves that phase over the middle MS River Valley, 12z was a step but not quite there, a couple 18z GFS mems hint at more separation. Parcel in question enters CONUS in NE MT around 90hrs, crashing down through the central Plains by 105hrs, meanwhile the initial waves have phased and setting up what is pretty close to a 50/50 although slightly displaced from a classic position. Complex evolution over the central part of the country next 4 days, keep an eye on that vort south of the Hudson Bay, may aid in forcing the leading wave out early and allow for whatever comes down day 4 to spin up something south of what is presently being shown. The GFS is really struggling, it lumps everything together, tip of the hat to the op EC at this range due to resolution. 12z EC 93hrs 12z EC 114hrs 12z GFS 111hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 GFS keeps the cheez flizzard alive. 500mb vort looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 GFS keeps the cheez flizzard alive. 500mb vort looks decentNice little maxima over us, too. We must be living right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 06z GFS is bone dry. 500mb trough is more positively tilted this run. Not as cold in the medium to long range either. Haven't looked at ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I think this is going to be a wait for the NAM to around 48 hours if we can pull a flizzard out of this I'll be happy. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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