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SE snow threat 1-15/16?


Cheeznado

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Don't look now, but the 21z RAP just printed out quite a bit of 0.1-0.2" across central NC.  The wettest run yet, I believe.  It even had some 0.2-0.3" totals near Wilkesboro.

 

EDIT: And then it backed off the next hour.  That's the RAP for you.

Exactly.  I've been burned by the RAP too many times.  In one hour it went from some areas having over .1 to getting .01.  Only 1% of what it was showing the hour before for only 3-4 hours in the future.  That's frustrating!...Yet I'm still looking at it every hour.  I need help!

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Exactly. I've been burned by the RAP too many times. In one hour it went from some areas having over .1 to getting .01. Only 1% of what it was showing the hour before for only 3-4 hours in the future. That's frustrating!...Yet I'm still looking at it every hour. I need help!

That just say it so aptly why we're in such sad shape....hoping beyond hope that the Rap will mercifully spit out .10 instead of the .01 that it had been showing. We need snow bad.

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light sprinkles here, overcast/setting @ 46...

 

KILM says:

 

This front will move through basically moisture deprived with more
in the way of clouds streaming across in the upper levels and fairly
dry through the middle levels. Any shallow moisture may produce a
little light rain with lift right along front moving into i95
corridor late evening and reaching the coast after midnight.

Cold air advection will increase from the west behind front but temperatures along the
coast will remain in the 40s most of the night. As the cold air
filters in...the moisture will be moving out. The main driving force
for any Post frontal pcp will be a strong vorticity maximum rotating through
the middle to upper trough moving through our local forecast area
within the few hours around daybreak. This will squeeze out any
available moisture in the atmosphere. The pcp water values up around
a half inch will drop down near a quarter of an inch inland by
morning. Therefore a short window of opportunity for any pcp at all.

Once the front moves further off shore the winds will increase out
of the north to northwest. Winds aloft will remain out of the SW
closer to the coast keeping a warmer flow over the shallow cool air
behind surface front. This will allow for some weak isentropic lift near
the coast while inland this warm layer aloft will be eroded away as
cold air makes its way east. Therefore closer to the coast...chance of
rain will increase toward morning in better isentropic lift. As for
inland near the i95 corridor...expect some light pcp to mix with or
change over to snow earlier in the overnight hours...closer to 4 or
5 am when column still remains moist from around 3k to 12k feet and
temperatures drop below freezing through the column. This will allow a
short period of mixed pcp or changeover to mainly snow flurries
within the first few hours near daybreak Thursday morning. Dewpoint
temperatures will drop below freezing by midnight inland and closer to 5 to
6 am along the coast. As pcp occurs inland...the evaporative cooling
may aid in dropping surface temperatures below freezing by 4 or 5 am when
column becomes saturated. Ground temperatures will be warm throughout and
therefore not counting on any accumulation.

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Had some slop come through here about 10 mins ago maybe more slop here shortly.

Then looks like a break before more slop showers come through. Temps are dropping and a pretty good breeze that makes it feel worse.

I got my sister in Timberlake on the lookout for the flizzard! Y'all look good up there for a car top dusting atleast! The precip looks pretty robust up that way!
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I got my sister in Timberlake on the lookout for the flizzard! Y'all look good up there for a car top dusting atleast! The precip looks pretty robust up that way!

She should be getting some shortly next 15-20 mins maybe. She might catch the tail of the first band.  I hope so... but not holding my breath for much. I'd like to see the precip fill in alot more.

 

That one band that came through pretty much gave us the totals the models have been showing.. so I guess anything else is gravy.

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She should be getting some shortly next 15-20 mins maybe. She might catch the tail of the first band.  I hope so... but not holding my breath for much. I'd like to see the precip fill in alot more.

 

That one band that came through pretty much gave us the totals the models have been showing.. so I guess anything else is gravy.

Your weather obs is showing 41 and a thunderstorm.

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