Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Blacksburg seems to think it comes in the afternoon also? WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE MID 40S IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. Blacksburg seems to think it's a non event for me also. This is better than what it was showing just an hour ago. It had us at 20% so that is a step ,be it small, in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 18z GFS is very close but also very warm Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I am wondering if the idea of a band, that is trying to be shown on the NAM, could be a right idea if a SFC low starts to pop off the coast. Lookout said it best, under that band, NAM crashed temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Dave Williams of WCIV just posted this on his Twitter feed for pre-sunrise Thursday at CHS on the SREF. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Stick a fork in this one for north GA, the deepening and going negative tilt happens too late for us. Now no model even has any rain much less snow. The next one is looking less impressive as well. Should have known.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Dave Williams of WCIV just posted this on his Twitter feed for pre-sunrise Thursday at CHS on the SREF. Interesting. DaveWil.jpg The SREF does show the blue line that has 4.34% chance. and the one member of the sref showing snow there says 0.03 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 why is it so easy for these storms to go away. all we ask for is one of these to take hold but its always taken away. I was hoping this storm or the Friday storm would show some promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 why is it so easy for these storms to go away. all we ask for is one of these to take hold but its always taken away. I was hoping this storm or the Friday storm would show some promise. Because they are not really there in the first place. The computers giveth and the computers taketh away. Nothing is real until it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 From CHS NWS: SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/ WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALOFT A DEEP AND SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TAKE ON A MORE NEUTRAL/NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ALOFT APPEARS TO BE QUITE A POTENT ONE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX DIGGING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND EXCELLENT DYNAMICS ALOFT...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION CAN BREAK OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE TOTALLY DRY GFS BEING THE OUTLIER. WITH PRETTY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS...I HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW DOES THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PHASE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS GENERATED. BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LIQUID. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THOUGH FOR SOME FLURRIES OR A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE SUFFICIENTLY COLD NEAR SURFACE AIR ARRIVES AFTER ANY PRECIPITATION DISSIPATES. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN ADVANCE OF THE COOLER AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRICKY. AREAS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 30 WHILE FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY STAY ABOVE FREEZING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 From CHS NWS:SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/ WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALOFT A DEEP AND SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TAKE ON A MORE NEUTRAL/NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LINGERING COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ALOFT APPEARS TO BE QUITE A POTENT ONE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX DIGGING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH SOME CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND EXCELLENT DYNAMICS ALOFT...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION CAN BREAK OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE TOTALLY DRY GFS BEING THE OUTLIER. WITH PRETTY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS...I HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW DOES THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PHASE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS GENERATED. BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LIQUID. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THOUGH FOR SOME FLURRIES OR A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE SUFFICIENTLY COLD NEAR SURFACE AIR ARRIVES AFTER ANY PRECIPITATION DISSIPATES. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN ADVANCE OF THE COOLER AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRICKY. AREAS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 30 WHILE FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY STAY ABOVE FREEZING. need cloud cover to move in fast tomorrow and stifle those daytime highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 MHX AFD, low confidence which is good, low forming off Cape Fear which is good, moisture being thrown back MIA, not good... .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 345 PM TUE...ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH VARIABLETEMPERATURE REGIME AND SEVERAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.LOW CONFIDENCE POP AND PTYPE FCST FOR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURMORNING AS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AVAILABILITY. NEG TILTED SHORT WAVEWILL SWING THROUGH BASE OF BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THECENTRAL CONUS ON THUR MORNING. THIS WILL PROMOTE SFC LOWDEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF STREAM. HOWEVER...BULK OF ORGANIZEDPRECIP FCST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW IS FCSTTO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON THUR. LATEST MODEL SUITE INFAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA... ANDKEEP THE MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIP LIQUID. ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BEMANUFACTURED WITH DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLUMN STRETCHING ASTHICKNESSES FALL THROUGH THE MORNING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTIONOF RA/SN MIX AWAY FROM THE COAST. EITHER WAY...NO TRAVEL IMPACTSEXPECTED DUE TO ANTECEDENT WARM GROUNDS AND SFC TEMPS NEAR ORABOVE FREEZING. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL END BY THUR AFTERNOON ASLOW PULLS AWAY. HIGHS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPR 40S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 What do you guys think of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 What do you guys think of this? Matches up fairly well with the 18z NAM at 21hrs, valid 15z tomorrow, although the vort max at the base is about 10 s-1 stronger on the RAP, which is to be expected from a higher res near term model. See High Res NAM, second graphic below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The NAM model is horrible. I would only expect flurries for non-mtn locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The NAM model is horrible. I would only expect flurries for non-mtn locations. It's after that hr the nam started to develop the banding through SC/ parts of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 It's after that hr the nam started to develop the banding through SC/ parts of NC. Upper-level support is just not there for further intensification. Even at the time stamp i posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 There goes the last real hope...lol NAM dried up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Not much new on the 0z NAM through 24, thought the axis may have been a little more towards neutral at 18hrs when looking at the trend loop on the model center, at 24hrs, less tilt compared to 18z. Vortmax at the base is a little deeper into the central GoM, not much. 30hrs, not nearly the right turn like 18z, neutralish around the Panhandle this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Well, that wraps it up for SC on the 00z NAM. Good luck everyone. I needed a break from model watching for a cpl days though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I'm more interested in the 0Z GFS and Euro than the crappy 0Z NAM regardless of the NAM being in its wheelhouse. A high resolution piece of cr*p is still cr*p lol. It is just better looking cr*p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I'm more interested in the 0Z GFS and Euro than the crappy 0Z NAM regardless of the NAM being in its wheelhouse. A high resolution piece of cr*p is still cr*p lol. Many of us are guilty of liking whichever model has what we want at any given run. I think that happened with the NAM for many of us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Larry is right...NAM is usually trash in trash out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Larry is right...NAM is usually trash in trash out... What's the in house model say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The 00Z NAM still continues to show some accumulating snow for Hickory according to the following meteogram. Most recent models are also showing some snowfall for the Friday/Saturday system for MBY. All is not lost. All is not good, but all is not lost. Tomorrow night will be time to turn on the floodlights and hope to see a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Read wxsouth tonight and he spoke of tendency for models to underestimate lot of the rain so far and said the models could be having that problem again.He did say this was a difficult obe to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Read wxsouth tonight and he spoke of tendency for models to underestimate lot of the rain so far and said the models could be having that problem again.He did say this was a difficult obe to forecast. He has a point. A lot of forecasts for showers this winter have turned into monsoons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 He has a point. A lot of forecasts for showers this winter have turned into monsoons.so 3-6, or 4-8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 KILM slowly changing tune,,, All of this has pointed to the release of a dense fog advisory ineffect for the remainder of this evening...and into the Wednesdaymorning hours through 9 am. This includes all counties of the ilmCounty Warning Area...up to and including the immediate coast.&&Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/...as of 300 PM Tuesday...will a little snow fall early Thursday or not isthe question...A wave of low pressure will move up along cold front well offshore in deep SW flow ahead of deepening trough digging down fromthe Great Lakes toward the Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Expect sunny and dryweather ahead of this system with temperatures up closer to 60 but thistrough will advance eastward through Wednesday pushing anothercold front into and through the Carolinas Wednesday night. A potent vorticitymaximum will ride through the Carolinas as the trough lifts toward thenortheast through early Thursday. This should help to squeeze out anyavailable moisture in the atmosphere with best upward vertical velocity withinthe few hours surrounding daybreak. By noon on Thursday all pcpshould move off shore. Pcp water values will be right around ahalf inch with moisture profiles showing best saturation in thelayer between between 1500 feet and 5k feet through Thursday morning.Overall not much moisture to work with and borderline temperatureprofiles up through the atmosphere to produce snow.It will be tricky as to how fast the cold air moves in vs. Howmuch lingering moisture there is to squeeze out. Surface front bringscooler air in after midnight at the surface but warm nose aloftstill evident through early morning with cold air advection increasing throughlate morning as winds shift around to the northwest aloft...but this willalso increase drying through the afternoon...plus diurnal warmingwill occur. Therefore there will be a very small window ofopportunity for any mixed pcp or snow to fall...especially alongthe coast. Inland will have a slightly better chance as they will seecooler air move in aloft before daybreak which should allow forsome light snow.Surface wet bulb temperatures remain right around freezing and dewpointtemperatures will be dropping through the early morning hours reachingbelow freezing inland several hours before daybreak but justaround daybreak close to the coast. Therefore with evaporativecooling taken into effect...would say likelihood of any mixed pcpwill be inland. For now will include some mixed pcp inland butwill keep rain along the coast...but would not discount some snowmixing in before it all ends. All pcp will end by noon as subsidenceand further drying occurs on back end of system and temperatures reachup close to 40 degrees. Clearing will occur through late Wednesdaywith temperatures dropping into the low to middle 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 00z GFS looked exciting but it quickly went the way of the NAM tonight. Still not counting this one out but it is looking more and more like the goose might be cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 once again gfs keeps major precip ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.