SE snow threat 1-15/16?

[FLweather]

With all the chaos as far as the models good.  Im sure we will be watching the models as it starts snowing.

 

I've got a feeling we might be surprised with this system... hoping a good S/E snowstorm. This still reminds me of Jan 2000.... not the amounts but the uncertainity aspect of it. Its not going to do much with it off the coast... all we might see is flurries then flurries turned to 1-4" and that turned to higher snowtotals.

 

But lol at hour 42.  Congrats Orlando, Ocala, Gainesville.

[Shawn]

2 counties over from getting KCAE on this run.  20 mile shift = win.

[burgertime]

Man the nam blows up the precip just as it passes my location.  Would only need to have it shift a tiny bit to get in on the action. There is nothing worse than missing a snowfall by such a small distance.

 

Given where this was yesterday it's not out of the realm of possibility. 

[Lookout]

@51 still light snow in upstate and CLT areas. CLT gets between .10 and .25 of what looks like should be all snow. 

It might start as rain or rain/snow mix  but it would quickly changeover.

 

The nam is showing a LOT of cooling of the column underneath that band. To the west and east of it, it's much warmer in the low levels but underneath it, its barely above freezing at the surface with the rest of the column subfreezing.

[Shawn]

It might start as rain or rain/snow mix  but it would quickly changeover.

 

Precip type shows all snow North of FL.  with a cpl blips of rain chance before changing in Southern GA.

 

Waycross could see snow from this.  If that happens, we are doomed.

[tnweathernut]

Best of luck to my friends in North Carolina and South Carolina. I'm not trying to throw water on the fire, but be careful with this one, as the NAM is shifting things all over the place at great distances between model runs which are just a few hours apart. Looking like this will be a now cast event, I'm glad you guys are at least in the game!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[burgertime]

It might start as rain or rain/snow mix  but it would quickly changeover.

 

The nam is showing a LOT of cooling of the column underneath that band. To the west and east of it, it's much warmer in the low levels but underneath it, its barely above freezing at the surface with the rest of the column subfreezing.

 

NAM precip type shows it starting as snow at hour 39....hard to say how accurate that is but it would explain the totals. 

[Lookout]

Precip type shows all snow North of FL.  with a cpl blips of rain chance before changing in Southern GA.

 

Waycross could see snow from this.  If that happens, we are doomed.

Precip type maps are normally useless. You need to look at soundings and soundings show the low levels starting off warm enough for rain before quickly changing to snow underneath that band.

[BullCityWx]

That depiction on the NAM almost looks like the deform zone of a coastal low. 

[FallsLake]

2 counties over from getting KCAE on this run.  20 mile shift = win.

I would venture to say this is not what the final outcome will look like. This setup looks very impresive. I'm really suprised it does not show more precip across most areas of SC and NC. Everybody always throws 2000 out but this really does have that look.

[Shawn]

I would venture to say this is not what the final outcome will look like. This setup looks very impresive. I'm really suprised it does not show more precip across most areas of SC and NC. Everybody always throws 2000 out but this really does have that look.

 

No need to throw 2000 out at all.  If anything, this is one of the best looks towards it we have had in 14 years.

[packfan98]

Why doesn't the precip keep spreading east?  The nam has it dropping the precip in a narrow band and then it disappears.  It looks a little funny to me.  Maybe all of the energy gets transferred to the low developing off the coast?

[Lookout]

NAM precip type shows it starting as snow at hour 39....hard to say how accurate that is but it would explain the totals. 

Looking at this sounding which shows high enough RH for precip to reach the surface, combined with nam's composite maps, it probably starts somewhere between 33 and 36 hours. Here is the sounding for 33 and 36 hours just around charlotte. Clearly all rain at hour 33 but has probably changed over by hour 36.

 

the rain part is not a big deal..whoever is under that band would see the vast majority of it as snow and those totals probably aren't too far off because I would expect it to be coming down pretty hard if the nam is correct. 

PRES	HGHT	TEMP	DWPT	RELH	MIXR	DRCT	SKNT	TWTB	TVRT	THTA	THTE	THTV
993.6	181	6.5	-0.9	59	3.6	11	12	3.4	7.1	280.2	290.4	280.8
975.0	335	5.0	-2.1	60	3.4	14	17	2.2	5.6	280.2	289.9	280.8
950.0	546	3.0	-2.8	66	3.3	15	20	0.7	3.5	280.2	289.6	280.7
925.0	762	1.2	-3.6	70	3.2	25	23	-0.6	1.8	280.6	289.7	281.1
900.0	982	0.5	-2.1	83	3.7	47	17	-0.5	1.1	282.0	292.5	282.6
875.0	1207	-0.8	-0.8	100	4.1	62	12	-0.8	-0.1	282.9	294.7	283.6
850.0	1438	-1.6	-1.6	100	4.0	100	9	-1.6	-1.0	284.4	296.0	285.1
825.0	1675	-3.1	-3.1	100	3.7	149	10	-3.1	-2.5	285.3	296.0	285.9
800.0	1918	-4.5	-4.5	100	3.4	174	17	-4.5	-4.0	286.3	296.3	286.9
775.0	2168	-6.1	-6.1	100	3.1	187	22	-6.1	-5.6	287.2	296.4	287.7
750.0	2423	-8.0	-8.0	100	2.8	203	26	-8.0	-7.6	287.8	296.2	288.3
725.0	2686	-9.8	-10.2	97	2.4	211	31	-10.0	-9.5	288.6	295.9	289.0
700.0	2956	-11.8	-12.5	94	2.1	215	33	-12.0	-11.4	289.4	295.8	

Hour 36

PRES	HGHT	TEMP	DWPT	RELH	MIXR	DRCT	SKNT	TWTB	TVRT	THTA	THTE	THTV
994.2	181	2.3	-4.2	62	2.8	7	12	0.0	2.8	275.9	283.9	276.4
975.0	338	0.6	-5.2	65	2.7	9	17	-1.4	1.1	275.8	283.3	276.2
950.0	546	-1.4	-5.8	72	2.6	10	20	-2.9	-1.0	275.7	283.1	276.1
925.0	757	-3.1	-6.9	75	2.5	21	24	-4.4	-2.7	276.1	283.1	276.5
900.0	974	-2.9	-4.3	90	3.1	44	22	-3.4	-2.4	278.5	287.3	279.0
875.0	1198	-0.9	-0.9	100	4.1	83	16	-0.9	-0.2	282.8	294.5	283.5
850.0	1430	-1.1	-1.1	100	4.2	128	13	-1.0	-0.4	285.0	297.1	285.7
825.0	1668	-2.6	-2.7	99	3.8	167	14	-2.7	-2.0	285.8	296.8	286.5
800.0	1911	-4.1	-5.1	93	3.3	188	19	-4.5	-3.6	286.7	296.4	287.3
775.0	2160	-5.7	-7.3	89	2.9	199	22	-6.3	-5.3	287.6	296.1	288.1
750.0	2417	-7.5	-9.3	87	2.5	206	25	-8.1	-7.1	288.3	

Here is hour 39. As you can see the amount of cooling is pretty impressive. Think about how often you have seen it take forever for the surface to 975mb levels to cool off which totally screws up totals. Not this time if the nam is correct. by hour 42, it's around 29 or 30.

PRES	HGHT	TEMP	DWPT	RELH	MIXR	DRCT	SKNT	TWTB	TVRT	THTA	THTE	THTV
992.8	181	0.7	-4.3	69	2.8	7	12	-1.0	1.2	274.4	282.3	274.9
975.0	325	-0.9	-4.9	74	2.7	9	17	-2.3	-0.5	274.2	281.9	274.7
950.0	532	-2.9	-5.7	81	2.6	14	21	-3.8	-2.4	274.3	281.7	274.7
925.0	743	-2.9	-6.5	76	2.5	32	29	-4.1	-2.5	276.3	283.6	276.8
900.0	960	-3.7	-5.3	89	2.9	48	29	-4.3	-3.3	277.6	285.8	278.1
875.0	1182	-3.8	-4.2	97	3.2	71	26	-3.9	-3.3	279.8	289.0	280.4
850.0	1412	-1.6	-1.6	100	4.0	109	21	-1.6	-0.9	284.5	296.1	285.2
825.0	1650	-2.2	-2.2	100	4.0	137	20	-2.2	-1.6	286.2	297.7	286.9
800.0	1894	-3.8	-3.8	100	3.6	160	23	-3.8	-3.2	287.1	297.7	287.7
775.0	2144	-5.4	-5.4	100	3.3	174	27	-5.4	-4.8	288.0	297

[burgertime]

Looking at this sounding which shows high enough RH for precip to reach the surface, combined with nam's composite maps, it probably starts somewhere between 33 and 36 hours. Here is the sounding for 33 and 36 hours just around charlotte. Clearly all rain at hour 33 but has probably changed over by hour 36.

 

the rain part is not a big deal..whoever is under that band would see the vast majority of it as snow and those totals probably aren't too far off because I would expect it to be coming down pretty hard if the nam is correct.

 

Yea just proves why the precip type is pointless. I really have to wonder if this doesn't tick west and more negative earlier. Seems to be the trend. Though as another poster said above we might be getting NAM tricked. 

[Jon]

Out of curiosity (We all remember it well) can someone repost 2000 again? 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/

 

IMO with the technology we have today, that type of surprise event not being modeled so close to the event is slim to none, especially on the short range options we have.

[Cold Rain]

Out of curiosity (We all remember it well) can someone repost 2000 again? 

 

The Jan 2000 event was very complex in its evolution, as it turned out.  It wasn't just the case of a model misrepresenting where a S/W would track or where a trough would go negative (50 miles this way or that way).  Here's an important part of the development of that storm, as analyzed by the RAH team (link below):

 

An area of precipitation developed along a frontal system over southern Alabama and southern Mississippi at around 06Z on January 24, 2000. The area of precipitation expanded and intensified as it moved into the cold airmass north of the front in Georgia by 12Z on January 24. Analysis of surface observations and radar imagery show that this area of precipitation was poorly forecast by the Eta model. Research into this storm indicates that this under forecasted area of precipitation that fell into a cold and somewhat dry airmass across the Deep South had a significant impact in how the models handled the developing storm system.

Based on quasi-geostrophic (QG) theory, height rises (falls) occur above (below) a mid-level latent heating maximum, due to changes in the density of the air above and below. This response also creates a low-level maximum in cyclonic potential vorticity (PV), as low-level static stability is increased. The effects of the induced cyclonic PV max are manifest in wave amplification and enhanced rotation around the PV center. The precipitation across the Deep South induced a PV anomaly that enhanced the easterly flow downstream, creating stronger westward moisture advection over the Carolinas from off the Atlantic (Brennan and Lackmann 2005), thereby extending the heavy snowfall further inland. The inability of the models to accurately predict the precipitation across the Deep South was a major reason that the model forecasts of this storm were so inaccurate.

The combination of increased moisture advection, enhanced dynamics, and a deep subfreezing column of air (see GSO soundings below), created an environment that was primed for intense winter weather.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/

[Lookout]

Yea just proves why the precip type is pointless. I really have to wonder if this doesn't tick west and more negative earlier. Seems to be the trend. Though as another poster said above we might be getting NAM tricked. 

Possibly. The differences in sensible weather between the nam and gfs is night and day and it's only 36 hours out. But fwiw, the regional canadian run shows a similar banding feature..just further east and north. So the nam might be picking up on something the gfs is not.

 

 

edit..i should point out that although the rgem is showing some type of band of precip,  it looks very different at 500mb than the nam.

 

[FallsLake]

RAH is telling us to keep tracking....

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
249 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-152000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
249 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. IF FOG OCCURS...
SOME OF THE FOG PATCHES COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...HOWEVER...SO KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

DJF
 

[Jaguars]

When it's getting cold enough in KCAE around 12AM on Thursday..

 

between 650- just slightly above 700mb.  with rel humidity >91% right around 750mb.

 

It's enough to squeeze some flakes out moisture wise.. but nothing much if that makes sense through the whole period I wouldn't think.

 

I'd really love for the growth region to be 100mb lower around 700-750mb at least.

 

 

The region is -15C though.  Which isn't too bad.

 thanks man

[MillerA]

Gsp.disco..

As of 215 PM...an upper trough will dig and sharpen as it crosses the

Mississippi River valley tonight through Wednesday. It will pivot from

a positive tilt to neutral as it enters the Tennessee Valley...with a

potent vorticity lobe extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the northern Gulf

of Mexico. This should result in Stout deep-layer q-vector convergence

atop the County warning forecast area...starting late tonight...through the day on Wednesday.

The main source for low level forcing will be periodic bands of

frontogenesis...mainly in the 850-700 mb layer...that will be

coincident with some better relative humidity. The nature of the clipper system

will be that even with it in the second and third periods...there is

still uncertainty on exact timing/placement of best precipitation response.

To add to uncertainty...the bl will start out rather

warm...resulting in lower confidence on how quickly rain changes

over to snow.

The 12z NAM has come in as a bullish outlier...both with quantitative precipitation forecast

response...and on snow accums. The GFS is still drier...with only

1-2" of snow accumulate along the Tennessee line. I have opted to take a model

blend for probability of precipitation and temperatures. This results in likely probability of precipitation along the Tennessee

line...with chance pop from the Greenville area to Charlotte and north

as you go east of the mountains temperatures should support accumulating snow

across the mountains by daybreak Wednesday and continue through the day...so

storm total snow accumulate through Wednesday evening look to be 1-3" in the

lower elevations...and 2-4" above 3500 feet. As for snow outside the

mountains...it looks like the bl will stay too warm for accumulate snow. If

the shortwave has a little more moisture to work with and/or

stronger frontogenesis sets up...some locations may see rain change

over to snow before sunset. Most likely in the NC foothills and northwest

Piedmont. In fact...temperatures will be at or slightly above normal across

much of the Piedmont Wednesday afternoon.

[FLweather]

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/

 

IMO with the technology we have today, that type of surprise event not being modeled so close to the event is slim to none, especially on the short range options we have.

 

Thats very true Jon. But just look at the runs and uncertainity being shown. This could easily be something big or OTS.

 

But really makes me scratch my head and wonder

 

 

 

1-25-2000

 

And the nam

[burgertime]

The 12z NAM has come in as a bullish outlier...both with quantitative precipitation forecast

response...and on snow accums. The GFS is still drier...with only

1-2" of snow accumulate along the Tennessee line. I have opted to take a model

blend for probability of precipitation and temperatures. This results in likely probability of precipitation along the Tennessee

line...with chance pop from the Greenville area to Charlotte and north

as you go east of the mountains temperatures should support accumulating snow

across the mountains by daybreak Wednesday and continue through the day...so

storm total snow accumulate through Wednesday evening look to be 1-3" in the

lower elevations...and 2-4" above 3500 feet. As for snow outside the

mountains...it looks like the bl will stay too warm for accumulate snow. If

the shortwave has a little more moisture to work with and/or

stronger frontogenesis sets up...some locations may see rain change

over to snow before sunset. Most likely in the NC foothills and northwest

Piedmont. In fact...temperatures will be at or slightly above normal across

much of the Piedmont Wednesday afternoon.

 

My biggest fear with this. GSP is usually more right than they are wrong when comes to the BL debate. 

[burgertime]

It's gonna be to warm. If this starts in the afternoon, it will be all rain. GSP says highs will be at or above normal. So highs of 51-53, won't get it done, so that should ensure lots of precip!

 

Don't think you have to worry since pretty much every model says this is happening overnight if it does in fact happen. 

[Cold Rain]

Good AFD from RAH (posting before Falls gets in here and using the Bevo red font for emphasis ):

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD CULMINATING IN A STRONG NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH THAT WIL SWING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A
100+KT JET AT 500 HPA APPROACHES THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND THE
STALLED FRONT NEAR THE GULF STREAM...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EVOLVING IN THE HANDLING OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
AND THE RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING SLOWER WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN AND A
STRONGER SURFACE SYSTEM ALBEIT WITH VARYING QPF SCENARIOS. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS FOR AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD EAST OUT OF THE NC FOOTHILLS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TOWARD SUNSET. WHILE
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...THE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WIL BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO RESULT IN
A RAIN PTYPE THROUGH AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR EASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD DRIVE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN IF NOT MUCH LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH....MAINLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 1 WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BUT THIS IS LIKELY A MORE EXTREME SCENARIO WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY OBSERVING A PERIOD OF LIGHT LIGHT SNOW FOR A FEW
HOURS WITH NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE RAH CWA WITH MINIMUMS
RANGING FROM 25 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO AROUND 30 IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION NOW
PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. QPF
AMOUNTS AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. INITIALLY THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE WILL LIKELY BE SNOW THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE 30S DURING THE
MORNING BUT NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE MAY NOT
BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO EXTEND IN THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION AND
ABOVE FREEZIN TEMPS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE OF A RIAN.SBNOW
MIX.  REGARDLESS THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW AS ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT WOULD POTENTIALLY RESULT
IN NOTICEABLY MORE PRECIPITATION IN LOCATIONS EAST OF U.S. 1 ON
THURSDAY. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE 40-45 RANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
DRY WEATHER WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 26-32 RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. -BLAES
 

[BIG FROSTY]

Blacksburg seems to think it comes in the afternoon also?

 

 

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE
MID 40S IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
50 PERCENT.

 

Blacksburg seems to think it's a non event for me also.
 

[Bevo]

Good AFD from RAH (posting before Falls gets in here and using the Bevo red font for emphasis ):

 

 

Who do you think ColdRainStr8cashhomie learned it from?

[Lookout]

I know it's tempting but let's keep the personal stories to the banter thread. If there is something similar in the modeling to that event then that's fine. thanks

[superjames1992]

The RGEM looks pretty good here, but that banding is feast or famine, to say the least. A decent snowfall and nothing at all are only separated by a few miles.

[GaffneyPeach]

My biggest fear with this. GSP is usually more right than they are wrong when comes to the BL debate.

Not last February. They said no up until I was looking at around four inches on the ground and an awesome sunset complete with rainbow. Just sayin'

[Jon]

ncweather et. all:

 

You made me look twice and I was convinced I had posted the closest analog to the 12z NAM earlier but I think I posted the 00z NAM top analog...because the top analog for 500mb (76.5%) is....January 25th, 2000. It's obviously not going to be a large match in the other features (mslp, etc), but it is the top analog for 500mb, which I think is most important at the moment. Everything else skews the result for top overall.