Stormsfury Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The 12Z Euro, vs. the 0Z Euro, is closer to the coast with that same system for Wed. night. We'll see if this trends even further westward on the next run. It is very close to producing snow on the coast near Jacksonville and at Charleston. There is about .05"+ that falls right on the coast near those two cities.The Euro's 2 meter temp.'s of 40+ are too warm due to its bias. Stormsfury, I see that you're here. Are you following this for the Charleston area? Keeping tabs on it, a very thread the needle situation but ATT I feel it's at best, a token novelty event, but would be nice nonetheless if it does occur. One thing that might help is the 850-500mb lapse rate is fairly robust, 500mb temps depicted by GFS on Meteostar are running around -28C, with 850mb running around -7C about a 6C lapse rate which might encourage some instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 At this point I'm gonna be pretty disgusted if we only end up with a dusting. Outlandish sarc FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Lookout, This is the kind of thing the 12Z GFS shows as per my last post. I'm looking forward to MeteoStar's output. Here in Savannah, I'd love to see a very rare snow (even just flurries). But I know climo way too well to get my hopes up. Most years don't even get flurries. Regardless, I'll be following this one closely from here near the beach. Edit: Per 12Z GFS, RDU gets ~6" of snow the last week in Jan. GSP very close to that, too. ATL too warm. Somehow I missed your post but yeah climo certainly argues against it. But unless it completely dries up, it sure appears there could be some somewhere. 12z euro has over a tenth across north central florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Keeping tabs on it, a very thread the needle situation but ATT I feel it's at best, a token novelty event, but would be nice nonetheless if it does occur. One thing that might help is the 850-500mb lapse rate is fairly robust, 500mb temps depicted by GFS on Meteostar are running around -28C, with 850mb running around -7C about a 6C lapse rate which might encourage some instability. Not that I trust the NAM, but the 12Z NAM does have precip. falling with 925's below freezing and 850's quickly falling to below freezing late Wed. night into early Thu morning. Is there any snow reaching the ground per those simulated radars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The RAP through 18 hrs is lining up almost perfectly h5 wise with the NAM's forecast with a few changes with energy. In fact, maybe a bit more energy floating around per RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 FWIW, the best moisture is below the snow growth region per NAM for KCAE. Though, on the 4KM, it looks a bit better.. but nothing crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 FWIW, the best moisture is below the snow growth region per NAM for KCAE. Just out of curiosty, where does it show the snow growth region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Just out of curiosty, where does it show the snow growth region? When it's getting cold enough in KCAE around 12AM on Thursday.. between 650- just slightly above 700mb. with rel humidity >91% right around 750mb. It's enough to squeeze some flakes out moisture wise.. but nothing much if that makes sense through the whole period I wouldn't think. I'd really love for the growth region to be 100mb lower around 700-750mb at least. The region is -15C though. Which isn't too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 18z NAM looks a little better at 5h to my untrained eye. Energy looks a little more juiced and maybe just a tad more neutral. We'll see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 18z NAM at 30 is totally dry for the SE. It does have a low in the gulf so maybe north FL gets lucky on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 18z NAM at 30 is totally dry for the SE. It does have a low in the gulf so maybe north FL gets lucky on this one. It's a shame because it's such a nice vort, negatively tilted, just a hair to east and a little to progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 NAM is so close to being a big event for someone in the SE. It's pulling moisture into southern GA since that energy is going negative a tad sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 18z NAM at 30 is totally dry for the SE. It does have a low in the gulf so maybe north FL gets lucky on this one. Not TOTALLY dry..http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=033ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_033_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 NAM is so close to being a big event for someone in the SE. It's pulling moisture into southern GA since that energy is going negative a tad sooner. Yeah a good amount of GA should get something this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 It's a shame because it's such a nice vort, negatively tilted, just a hair to east and a little to progressive. From a weenie perspective it seems the trend is to push it west by a hair on each run. Maybe by tomorrow morning we'll have something really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Purdy….just slow that kicker down and shift it 50 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 CAE is close to snow @39. This run isn't turning out too bad for folks south of I-40. Heck even Waycross might see a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 CAE is close to snow @39. This run isn't turning out too bad for folks south of I-40. Heck even Waycross might see a flake Yep, 18z NAM FTW for CAE. Probably just being NAM'd but it's fun to watch/dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 @42 light snow for the upstate and CLT areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Like you said Burger 18Z is close but still ho hum.... at least it hasn't totally lost the precip. So much energy it is ashame this thing can't slow down and really crank up, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Holy smokes, just NW of CAE get's a very nice event this run, 3-4". I guess Greenville, SC is the spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Getting closer for the Sandhills ... is there enough time to wishcast that tilt a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 @51 still light snow in upstate and CLT areas. CLT gets between .10 and .25 of what looks like should be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Gastonia ends up with close to 3 inches on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Impressive band…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'll probably get in trouble for this but the dark blue is 2.5 inches. This is from the NAM surface map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Man the nam blows up the precip just as it passes my location. Would only need to have it shift a tiny bit to get in on the action. There is nothing worse than missing a snowfall by such a small distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Impressive band…. assuming a deform band develops it will be an all or nothing type event it looks like. Get under that band and maybe squeeze out and inch or two, if you dont get under it don't expect anything IMO. It will at least be interesting to see how this thing develops tomorrow and tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Congrats on the NAM love guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'll probably get in trouble for this but the dark blue is 2.5 inches. This is from the NAM surface map. There is quite the sharp gradient on the western side of that band. Caldwell and Burke counties get relatively nothing, while Catawba, Lincoln, and Gaston get quite a bit. This is way to close for comfort all around. It appears to be a story of the haves and have nots. And, they might just be 5 miles or so away from each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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