Cheeznado Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 OK, now two runs in a row of the Euro and to a lesser extent the GGEM are showing at least a decent light snow event over a pretty wide area of the SE next Tues-Wed. Not sure I buy the extreme 0Z Euro solution but with such a strong ridge out west this type of snow from a significant area of vorticity digging SE is certainly a thing that could happen. I would gladly take an inch or so here in ATL..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Thanks, Cheez. Not only is the 0Z Fri Euro quite cold for the SE US in the 6-10 (much below with many highs 30's-mid 40's for well inland cities), but it is also showing snow for parts of the SE with 1"+ snow in much of E TN, most of NC, and far NE GA and NW SC Wed/Thu 1/15-16! The heaviest area of manly 4-6" is over N NC and extends from superjames' home in the GSO area westward into the mountains. HKY is just south of the heaviest but still gets a good 3-4". Charlotte gets 2" and Asheville 3". Brick's abode gets ~2". Far NE GA and NW SC get ~1". The E 1/3 of TN gets 1-4" including 2-3" at Stovepipe's residence. Ironically, this was supposed to be during the heart of a blowtorch period just a few days ago! Wow, have things changed for mid Jan! The models have been pretty bad overall and too warm in most cases. I must give JB credit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Steve, Thanks for posting that wxbell GFS clown map. The Euro is definitely quite a bit heavier in much of NC and E TN fwiw as noted in my post. Will the Euro get the substantial snowfall right this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 The problem here in ATL will be surface temps despite low thicknesses. If the Euro was exactly right it might snow decently here for a spell but with warm ground and temps above freezing air it would probably not stick. I have to root for the vort max to dig farther south and west but not holding my breath. A road trip up I-575 may be in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 RAH this morning... WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES FROM BOTHSUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OFRAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW...BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE RATHER MOISTURE-STARVEDWITH NO GULF AND VERY LITTLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE...UNTIL THE SYSTEM ISTO OUR EAST. SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM LIMITED TOCLIMO VALUES. THIS NW FLOW SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE LOWER-IMPACTTYPE THAT RESULTS IN PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...OR PERHAPS A BRIEFSNOW SHOWER OR TWO...WHICH WOULD OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAYNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 That is definitely not much moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Can I start a cold rain thread for the midlands of SC? That is all we will see ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 That is definitely not much moisture to work with. Not now but you know how that changes as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Would feel a little bit better about this if the GFS were on board. Right now all the moisture looks to be North of most of our forum (except for some back-lash over the mountains) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Not too worried about specifics like moisture, surface temps, verbatim snow maps, etc. at this point. There's definitely a potential here -- probably the best we've seen so far for at least a light snow event for a good area, which is still TBD. I like this period, and now we're starting to see something show up on the modeling. It's certainly not a classic snowstorm look, but we've seen events like this work out in the past. We've also seen them turn out to be nothing. Either way, there's no reason to be overly bullish or sorely disappointed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'd gladly take my two inches and call it a night. But I am not getting my hopes up for anything. Doesn't look like a lot of moisture around, which is typical considering it's going to be rainy and 70 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Not too worried about specifics like moisture, surface temps, verbatim snow maps, etc. at this point. There's definitely a potential here -- probably the best we've seen so far for at least a light snow event for a good area, which is still TBD. I like this period, and now we're starting to see something show up on the modeling. It's certainly not a classic snowstorm look, but we've seen events like this work out in the past. We've also seen them turn out to be nothing. Either way, there's no reason to be overly bullish or sorely disappointed at this point.Hopefully another cheese success thread.You forgot about ground temps, sun angle, moon angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'm not sure why everybody is saying the moisture is north of us when places like GSO and INT get over half an inch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'm not sure why everybody is saying the moisture is north of us when places like GSO and INT get over half an inch of QPF. Because somebody said no moisture and nobody else actually looked to see if that were true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I know it's an old wives' tale, but there are supposed to be some thunderstorms tomorrow. But I have seen it before here where do go from one extreme to another in winter with warm weather and storms to snow within a few days. It's like the rubberband snapping back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'm not sure why everybody is saying the moisture is north of us when places like GSO and INT get over half an inch of QPF. Because somebody said no moisture and nobody else actually looked to see if that were true. RAH said it today. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES FROM BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW...BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED WITH NO GULF AND VERY LITTLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE...UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS TO OUR EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Hopefully another cheese success thread. You forgot about ground temps, sun angle, moon angle. And marine layer and warm noses and heat rising from cow dung...yeah we're screwed already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 It doesnt appear the Euro ensembles are that bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 RAH said it today. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES FROM BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW...BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED WITH NO GULF AND VERY LITTLE ATLANTIC MOISTURE...UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS TO OUR EAST. Based on your research and analysis of the available data, do you think it will be moisture starved? Or do you think conditions could exist by which further development could occur to the extend of bringing measurable snowfall to a wide region? By what criteria do you consider a system to be moisture starved, with regard to the total accumulated precip output of a particular system? .05 in or less? .25 or less? .5 or less? Other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'm sure there will be the warm pocket on the NC,SC,GA borders , and don't forget lee side dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Based on your research and analysis of the available data, do you think it will be moisture starved? Or do you think conditions could exist by which further development could occur to the extend of bringing measurable snowfall to a wide region? By what criteria do you consider a system to be moisture starved, with regard to the total accumulated precip output of a particular system? .05 in or less? .25 or less? .5 or less? Other? Just going by what they say. YOu might think differently. That's why this place exists, to talk about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'm sure there will be the warm pocket on the NC,SC,GA borders , and don't forget lee side dry slot actually, that does show up on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Just going by what they say. YOu might think differently. That's why this place exists, to talk about it. Well, the 12z GFS says the system is moisture starved, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Soundings on the GFS are close. Date: 5 day AVN valid 12Z WED 15 JAN 14 Station: KINT Latitude: 36.13 Longitude: -80.22 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 25 S 968 290 2.7 1.8 93 1.0 2.3 239 9 278.5 279.2 277.0 290.8 4.49 2 950 441 2.8 1.3 90 1.5 2.1 246 19 280.0 280.8 277.7 292.2 4.41 3 900 878 1.0-1.0 87 1.9 0.1 266 28 282.5 283.2 278.4 293.6 3.96 4 850 1335 -2.3 -3.5 91 1.2 -2.8 272 32 283.7 284.3 278.4 293.5 3.46 5 800 1814 -5.3 -7.4 85 2.1 -6.0 268 30 285.5 286.0 278.3 293.4 2.74 6 750 2317 -8.7 -10.6 86 1.9 -9.3 259 26 287.2 287.6 278.5 293.8 2.27 7 700 2848 -12.6 -14.2 88 1.6 -13.0 249 23 288.6 288.9 278.6 294.0 1.82 8 650 3409 -16.8 -19.0 84 2.1 -17.3 243 21 289.9 290.2 278.6 293.9 1.31 9 600 4005 -21.4 -23.9 80 2.5 -21.8 242 20 291.4 291.5 278.7 294.3 0.92 10 550 4640 -26.3 -29.8 73 3.4 -26.8 236 25 292.9 293.0 279.0 294.7 0.59 11 500 5323 -29.9 -39.0 41 9.1 -30.7 227 41 296.6 296.6 280.2 297.5 0.26 12 450 6070 -31.6 -53.4 10 21.8 -32.9 224 66 303.5 303.5 282.9 303.7 0.06 13 400 6899 -34.6 -58.2 7 23.7 -35.7 224 84 310.1 310.1 285.4 310.2 0.04 14 350 7823 -38.8 -59.6 9 20.8 -39.6 225 96 316.4 316.4 287.6 316.5 0.04 15 300 8871 -42.6 -62.0 10 19.4 -43.3 227 101 325.3 325.3 290.4 325.4 0.03 16 250 10093 -45.5 -64.7 10 19.1 -46.1 228 102 338.4 338.4 293.9 338.5 0.03 17 200 11571 -48.4 -67.4 9 19.0 -49.0 230 98 356.1 356.1 298.0 356.2 0.02 18 150 13445 -51.7 -71.6 7 20.0 -52.2 235 99 381.0 381.0 302.4 381.1 0.02 19 100 16022 -58.2 -79.5 5 21.2 -58.6 236 64 415.3 415.3 307.2 415.3 0.01 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The ONLY way I will buy into a possible snow storm modeled by the Euro is if A.) we're in a split flow B.) it isn't a NW to SE passage or C.) has GFS support when the flow is progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'm sure there will be the warm pocket on the NC,SC,GA borders , and don't forget lee side dry slot TEMPS AGAIN SUPPORT PTYPE CONCERNS POST-FROPA. THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS TIME LACK A WARM NOSE AND SATURATION IN SNOW GROWTH REGION DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THINGS SIMPLE...WITH A RAIN/SNOW SPLIT DETERMINED BY SFC TEMP. This is from GSP this morning. This would be a change seems like we always have to worry about a WARM NOSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Frank Strait was talking on his blog that he thinks the Tuesday snow will break containment and get to the east side of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Well, the 12z GFS says the system is moisture starved, so there's that. Moisture starved for the Carolinas, that is. It doesn't make me happy that the GFS is already north with the lift and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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