It's Been a Very Cold and Stormy Pattern Recently; Why? What Do the Best Performing Analogues Thus Far Show Ahead?

[wxhstn74]

It's Been a Very Cold and Stormy Pattern Recently; Why? What Do the Best Performing Analogues Thus Far Show Ahead?

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/01/its-been-very-cold-and-stormy-pattern.html

[wxhstn74]

Best Winter Analogue Thus Far; 1981-82...a Closer Look at January Then and Now

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/01/best-winter-analogue-thus-far-1981-82a.html

[Hoosier]

It's going to be a long winter if the 81-82 analog is applicable on a bigger scale. 

[Hoosier]

Not a good analog. That was more atlantic driven with a big -AO the first half of winter.

 

 

Well, I meant more from a sensible weather perspective. 

[Roger Smith]

I will go for mostly colder than normal to about March 10-15 then a pattern reversal to very mild second half March and April.

 

A memorable but not prolonged winter.

[buckeye]

I will go for mostly colder than normal to about March 10-15 then a pattern reversal to very mild second half March and April.

 

A memorable but not prolonged winter.

 

this winter came in full bore about a week before Thanksgiving.   If iit doesn't leave us until Mid March that is most definitely a prolonged winter.

[wxhstn74]

Angry>>>

 

Looks pretty negative (projected and last several model runs) to me and I don't discount for timing...we have plenty of winter season left. In addition, as stated in previous blog; this winter is mainly EPO driven and in that respect closer to 81-82. Finally, there are many, many aspects for analogue choices and if you judge just on one oscillation  whether it be AO (or NAO, PDO, etc etc) yu become too closed minded on outcomes and lose.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/epo.png
 

[Roger Smith]

Sure, I just meant not prolonged beyond early March as there was discussion of 1982 when I recall wintry weather in April.