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Central PA & The Fringes - January 2014 Pt II


PennMan

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  On 1/17/2014 at 1:43 PM, JamieOber said:

The weird thing is they have no snowfall map up. This seems fairly widespread. 

One cool thing about tonight is there could be a few good bands with at least moderate snow in them as they move through. 

i guess we will have to stay up late again  if we want to watch it fall. Another over nighter. Which i guess we will benefit from.

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  On 1/17/2014 at 1:14 PM, JamieOber said:

06 NAM went a little nutty back here, put down .32 of high-ratio qpf. Probably another night where I feel bad for the stray trucker that goes past our house and turns right to go up Port Matilda mountain when I'm out walking the dog. You likely know what I mean, although that one's a lot harder to deal with going down than coming up. 

06z GFS had what looked to be a more reasonable solution that still followed the same pattern as the NAM.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a few 3-4" reports somewhere in CPA if that comes to fruition.

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  On 1/17/2014 at 1:52 PM, PennMan said:

06z GFS had what looked to be a more reasonable solution that still followed the same pattern as the NAM. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few 3-4" reports somewhere in CPA if that comes to fruition.

Do you know where the surface reflection is to go in regards to our latittude. The LSV rarely sees much of anything from clippers unless we are north of the surface low. Thanks...

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  On 1/17/2014 at 1:52 PM, PennMan said:

06z GFS had what looked to be a more reasonable solution that still followed the same pattern as the NAM.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a few 3-4" reports somewhere in CPA if that comes to fruition.

i would agree in the true CPA, but we in the LSV don't always do well with clippers. On a rare occasion!

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The 06z GFS has conditionally unstable lapse rates from 600 to 700 mb around 00z tonight. This is a result of differential cold air advection as the cold air comes in quicker aloft. A secondary cold front approaches central PA around 06z Saturday along with a deepening 850 mb trough which will result in some frontgenetic forcing near the conditionally unstable layers. The GFS also has this lift in the region of dendritic snow growth so that will enhance snowfall rates as well.

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  On 1/17/2014 at 1:54 PM, maytownpawx said:

Do you know where the surface reflection is to go in regards to our latittude. The LSV rarely sees much of anything from clippers unless we are north of the surface low. Thanks...

NAM looks to run one low from southern Indiana to about Erie before that washes out, and develops another low (about 1006-1008mb) running from about Hagerstown-Harrisburg-Binghamton.

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  On 1/17/2014 at 2:02 PM, heavy_wx said:

The 06z GFS has conditionally unstable lapse rates from 600 to 700 mb around 00z tonight. This is a result of differential cold air advection as the cold air comes in quicker aloft. A secondary cold front approaches central PA around 06z Saturday along with a deepening 850 mb trough which will result in some frontgenetic forcing near the conditionally unstable layers. The GFS also has this lift in the region of dendritic snow growth so that will enhance snowfall rates as well.

 

Nice night of radar watching, it seems. 

 

  On 1/17/2014 at 2:11 PM, maytownpawx said:

Thank you! Sounds like a complicated setup. Expectations are low and hopes are high. :)

Best approach....

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  On 1/17/2014 at 7:40 PM, Rick G said:

NWS Binghamton-- has put up wwa for most of our area, but skips the Wyoming valley area. it will be interesting to see.. we are on the border for meeting the 4 inch minimum for a WWA.

 

That's kind of strange since Mt Holly has Carbon and Monroe in an advisory as well.

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  On 1/17/2014 at 8:06 PM, EasternUSWX said:

Most models showing a nice squall putting down 2-4" tonight. NAM is .25"+ qpf for a decent amount of people. 

High bust potential with this one though, so be wary everyone, ha.

 

This could on the other side be a very quiet storm, haven't read/heard anything from many about it.

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  On 1/17/2014 at 9:35 PM, Wmsptwx said:

Wow 18z Nam is wet.

 

For some people. Areas east of the Susquehanna look to get the shaft. Not that I really even want it to snow, but we just got upgraded to an advisory for 2-4 inches. Looking at the GFS and the NAM, neither look really good for areas outside of true central, though, so I don't know what State College is seeing.

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