canderson Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 CTP has 1-3" for MDT overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Kinda stinks seeing all green outside in January. But then again I can still take the dogs out and run around easy so I guess it has its good side too!! We should get that covered tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Hey MAG, think we get one of our annual overperforming clippers tonight? 06 NAM was fairly bullish on that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 CTP has 1-3" for MDT overnight. i don't know about all that business.....i'll take it, but it looks like about a 1/2ish to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 CTP has 1-3" for MDT overnight. The weird thing is they have no snowfall map up. This seems fairly widespread. One cool thing about tonight is there could be a few good bands with at least moderate snow in them as they move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The weird thing is they have no snowfall map up. This seems fairly widespread. One cool thing about tonight is there could be a few good bands with at least moderate snow in them as they move through. i guess we will have to stay up late again if we want to watch it fall. Another over nighter. Which i guess we will benefit from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 06 NAM went a little nutty back here, put down .32 of high-ratio qpf. Probably another night where I feel bad for the stray trucker that goes past our house and turns right to go up Port Matilda mountain when I'm out walking the dog. You likely know what I mean, although that one's a lot harder to deal with going down than coming up. 06z GFS had what looked to be a more reasonable solution that still followed the same pattern as the NAM. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few 3-4" reports somewhere in CPA if that comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 06z GFS had what looked to be a more reasonable solution that still followed the same pattern as the NAM. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few 3-4" reports somewhere in CPA if that comes to fruition. Do you know where the surface reflection is to go in regards to our latittude. The LSV rarely sees much of anything from clippers unless we are north of the surface low. Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 06z GFS had what looked to be a more reasonable solution that still followed the same pattern as the NAM. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few 3-4" reports somewhere in CPA if that comes to fruition. i would agree in the true CPA, but we in the LSV don't always do well with clippers. On a rare occasion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The 06z GFS has conditionally unstable lapse rates from 600 to 700 mb around 00z tonight. This is a result of differential cold air advection as the cold air comes in quicker aloft. A secondary cold front approaches central PA around 06z Saturday along with a deepening 850 mb trough which will result in some frontgenetic forcing near the conditionally unstable layers. The GFS also has this lift in the region of dendritic snow growth so that will enhance snowfall rates as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Do you know where the surface reflection is to go in regards to our latittude. The LSV rarely sees much of anything from clippers unless we are north of the surface low. Thanks... NAM looks to run one low from southern Indiana to about Erie before that washes out, and develops another low (about 1006-1008mb) running from about Hagerstown-Harrisburg-Binghamton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 NAM looks to run one low from southern Indiana to about Erie before that washes out, and develops another low (about 1006-1008mb) running from about Hagerstown-Harrisburg-Binghamton. Thank you! Sounds like a complicated setup. Expectations are low and hopes are high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The 06z GFS has conditionally unstable lapse rates from 600 to 700 mb around 00z tonight. This is a result of differential cold air advection as the cold air comes in quicker aloft. A secondary cold front approaches central PA around 06z Saturday along with a deepening 850 mb trough which will result in some frontgenetic forcing near the conditionally unstable layers. The GFS also has this lift in the region of dendritic snow growth so that will enhance snowfall rates as well. Nice night of radar watching, it seems. Thank you! Sounds like a complicated setup. Expectations are low and hopes are high. Best approach.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Someone is going to see a nice quick 2-4" snowfall tonight with some thundersnow possible. Hope it is me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 We should get that covered tonight. Nice play on words there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Im too far east this time so maybe a dusting in the screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Always for my latest thoughts check here. https://www.facebook.com/hwpcwx or www.hwpcwx.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 NWS Binghamton-- has put up wwa for most of our area, but skips the Wyoming valley area. it will be interesting to see.. we are on the border for meeting the 4 inch minimum for a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 NWS Binghamton-- has put up wwa for most of our area, but skips the Wyoming valley area. it will be interesting to see.. we are on the border for meeting the 4 inch minimum for a WWA. That's kind of strange since Mt Holly has Carbon and Monroe in an advisory as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Most models showing a nice squall putting down 2-4" tonight. NAM is .25"+ qpf for a decent amount of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 That's kind of strange since Mt Holly has Carbon and Monroe in an advisory as well. I would trust Mt Holly as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Most models showing a nice squall putting down 2-4" tonight. NAM is .25"+ qpf for a decent amount of people. High bust potential with this one though, so be wary everyone, ha. This could on the other side be a very quiet storm, haven't read/heard anything from many about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Trends have been good here in State College. 06z GFS ensemble mean was near 0.15"... 12z ensemble mean is above 0.30". Decent improvements in the 18z NAM as well, and the 15z SREFs are also a little improved (~1.5" of snow up to ~2.5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 CTP decreased MDT to1" total, down from the 1-3" they had early this afternoon. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Wow 18z Nam is wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Hey guys, is it going to snow or something??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Hey guys, is it going to snow or something??? 34 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Wow 18z Nam is wet. Could be a nice 3 or 4" if the NAM is right. Looks like a nice batch of instability and lift with that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Wow 18z Nam is wet. Congrats on WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Wow 18z Nam is wet. For some people. Areas east of the Susquehanna look to get the shaft. Not that I really even want it to snow, but we just got upgraded to an advisory for 2-4 inches. Looking at the GFS and the NAM, neither look really good for areas outside of true central, though, so I don't know what State College is seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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