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Central PA & The Fringes - January 2014 Pt II


PennMan

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Well...since no one seems interested in discussing the models, I will mention a tidbit of data from today's 12Z GFS from KCXY.

 

During the course of the entire run the temperature at 850 remains below zero.  The warmest it reaches is occurring right now showing a reading of -2C.  It shows several snow events, none of which are huge, but it certainly seems like there are several opportunities for phasing.

 

Later in the run when the 850 drops to -20C our surface temps drop below zero again...down to -4F.

 

Anyone else care to comment or explain in greater depth their interpretation of this run?

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The trough is going to retrograde west which will allow these northern stream vorts to dig further west and gain some amp and perhaps tap gulf moisture as they come east in the 7-15 day period. Normally that trough axis with a raging +nao would mean problems with storms cutting west but with the displaced pv dumping arctic cold into the trough and the time of year it looks to balance out into a great pattern for us. I'm thinking lots of chances for light to moderate snows and a two week period of cold. After that into feb if the trough continues to retrograde eventually we would thaw with a storm cutting. After that who knows. If we get a neg nao we could reload for another run.

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The trough is going to retrograde west which will allow these northern stream vorts to dig further west and gain some amp and perhaps tap gulf moisture as they come east in the 7-15 day period. Normally that trough axis with a raging +nao would mean problems with storms cutting west but with the displaced pv dumping arctic cold into the trough and the time of year it looks to balance out into a great pattern for us. I'm thinking lots of chances for light to moderate snows and a two week period of cold. After that into feb if the trough continues to retrograde eventually we would thaw with a storm cutting. After that who knows. If we get a neg nao we could reload for another run.

Agreed. Not looking like a pattern that would easily produce a 10"+ storm here, but possibly multiple 2-4, 3-7" type events and cold weather throughout. As is typical with these northern stream systems, timing and precip amounts will be tough to nail down more than a day or two in advance.

A normal chilly January morning here, down to 18 at the moment.

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Agreed. Not looking like a pattern that would easily produce a 10"+ storm here, but possibly multiple 2-4, 3-7" type events and cold weather throughout. As is typical with these northern stream systems, timing and precip amounts will be tough to nail down more than a day or two in advance.

A normal chilly January morning here, down to 18 at the moment.

Based on what I am seeing discussed, there's a decent shot at a -NAO second week of Feb. That might be the kicker for a big storm. 

 

If indeed 93-94 is our analog, I wonder how the pieces fell together for the March 1994 monster. 

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When I worked there they were going to launch one, I was sworn to secrecy about it but the deal fell through. 

 

Nice to see the Ops Floor hasn't changed much since I used to roam there bugging mets for snow forecasts for Centre County looking for press release ideas. 

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GFS continues to be wall to wall cold, although I have yet to see anything on it that has any cold comparable to our early Jan cold outbreak. Gonna have to see some -30ºC 850 temps pop up again to talk those kind of big time below zero temps. It's still quite cold at times though, with periods where 850 temps dip below -20ºC. The best clipper out of clipper fest 2014 the next several days appears at the moment to be the one progged for Friday night/Saturday morning as the GFS/NAM/SREF have a bit of a coastal low development and perhaps a deform band delivering some snowfall somewhere in C-PA. One right on it's heels but that one appears to be more of a western PA thing without any coastal redevelopment. Either event looks attm like a general 1-2" at best with the first one having potential to maybe deliver a corridor that has a slight bit more and the upslope areas cashing in more with the second clipper. GFS had a better "look" to things with regards to bigger events in it's long range timeframe today, and that's about all I will call it for now in the lol-range. I think we will have our chances for a couple bigger events as we get towards the end of the month and into the beginning of Feb...we certainly should at least have the cold around for it anyways. 

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From what I have been reading, February and March aren't looking snow friendly.  

Most of what I am reading is pretty good for at least Feb. 

 

Just a few examples:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/page-17#entry2642317

 

http://phillywx.com/forum/medium-and-long-range-discussion/7409-february-discussion/page2

 

Also: https://twitter.com/AdamPHLWx

 

I wish there was a better way to show Twitter conversations...that's Adam, who's a really level-head met, talking with HM and Sam Lillo. Click on the conversation link on some of his tweets, you'll see more. There's even a shot at a SSW in early Feb according to HM, which makes me take the idea of one more seriously given too many see SSW's in their sleep around here.

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GFS continues to be wall to wall cold, although I have yet to see anything on it that has any cold comparable to our early Jan cold outbreak. Gonna have to see some -30ºC 850 temps pop up again to talk those kind of big time below zero temps. It's still quite cold at times though, with periods where 850 temps dip below -20ºC. The best clipper out of clipper fest 2014 the next several days appears at the moment to be the one progged for Friday night/Saturday morning as the GFS/NAM/SREF have a bit of a coastal low development and perhaps a deform band delivering some snowfall somewhere in C-PA. One right on it's heels but that one appears to be more of a western PA thing without any coastal redevelopment. Either event looks attm like a general 1-2" at best with the first one having potential to maybe deliver a corridor that has a slight bit more and the upslope areas cashing in more with the second clipper. GFS had a better "look" to things with regards to bigger events in it's long range timeframe today, and that's about all I will call it for now in the lol-range. I think we will have our chances for a couple bigger events as we get towards the end of the month and into the beginning of Feb...we certainly should at least have the cold around for it anyways. 

I know the analogs are not even close but that reminds me a lot of Jan 2003, lots of consistent cold but nothing record-breaking. 

 

I lol'd at the end, basically saying they will be digging poor Phil's frozen corpse out of the snow and holding him up. Of course after the epic bust on his early spring call last year, I remember a lot of people wanting to go all Charles Bronson on the varmint. 

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anquan-scoreboard.jpeg

 

Snow scoreboard as of today:

 

MDT

 

January snowfall: 6.5

January average to date: 4.9

Departure from normal to date: 133%

Overall Jan average: 9.7

 

Seasonal snowfall: 15.7

Seasonal average to date: 10.8

Departure from normal to date: 145%

Seasonal average end of January: 15.6

 

UNV

 

January snowfall: 3.9

January average to date: 6.4

Departure from normal to date: 61%

Overall Jan average: 12.7

 

Seasonal snowfall: 19.0

Seasonal average to date: 16.6

Departure from normal to date: 115%

Seasonal average end of January: 22.9

 

IPT

 

January snowfall: 4.7

January average to date: 5.4

Departure from normal to date: 87%

Overall Jan average: 10.6

 

Seasonal snowfall: 21.0

Seasonal average to date: 14

Departure from normal to date: 150%

Seasonal average end of January: 19.2

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There could be some snow showers around tomorrow evening and later, potentially with a few heavier squalls. 0-3 km lapse rates look like they will be above 7 K/km with the daytime heating coupled with colder air moving in aloft. As the front approaches central PA later during the evening, the lapse rates may still be fairly high around 6.5 K/km.

 

Any showers will probably be fairly short-lived though so I wouldn't expect more than a dusting to half an inch for most areas. Maybe some higher elevations such as the Laurel mountains will see a couple inches.

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Well, this news is fascinating to me.  Unfortunately, I doubt Comcast (my TV provider) is going to be adding them to their lineup any time soon.  From my perspective, having been around to witness the launch of TWC back in August of 1982, I am excited to learn of a new 24/7 weather channel on cable.  I rarely watch TWC anymore and haven't for quite a few years.  When they dropped their 24/7 weather programming format it was the beginning of the end for those of us who were TWC loyalists, such as myself.  I realize that as technology evolved and the internet came on the scene in the early to mid 90's there was increasing access to other forms of 24/7 weather info.  So, from purely a business perspective I guess I can see how the revenue stream was slowly beginning to dry up as many viewers sought out real-time weather info online. 

 

Regardless of how you feel about Accu-Weather, I am actually excited about them launching an all-weather cable channel.  I just hope that they stick to their original proposed format and don't succumb to reality programming.

 

While I reminisce about the glory days of TWC I wanted to let you guys know that 20 years ago next week, the week of the all-time record lows of Jan '94, my business partner and I flew down to Atlanta to visit the Weather Channel.  My business was discussing selling the real-time weather data from my NJ meso-net to be integrated with their "Tri-State Weather" segment that only aired locally in the NY/NJ/CT markets at the top and bottom of each hour during the daytime and also on weekends.  I spent the entire day at TWC which was literally the date of the -22F record in MDT.  I was so upset that I could not be at my home in north Jersey to witness the coldest temps I had ever recorded on my weather station.  But, I spent most of the day videotaping segments of the live TWC broadcasts.  I recorded some of the behind-the-scene mets like Stu Ostro.  I interviewed Jim Cantore (who had a full head of hair back then!).  I recorded several other mets doing their live on-air broadcasting.  Declan Cannon and his wife, Bonnie McLaughlin.  Several others who, after 20 years, their names escape me.  But, they were all original on-air mets from the early beginnings of TWC.  It was a very memorable day in my life, to say the least.  So, long gone are those days forever at TWC, but maybe Accu-Weather can bring back some of the 24/7 analysis that we all here love so much.  While I would love to share this video with all of you, at the moment I can't because the video tape was recorded on 8mm cassettes, and I have never digitally reproduced it thus far.  I will let you all know if and when I am able to have the video available for all of you if you are interested in seeing it.  I'm reasonably sure that those 40 and above would be the most interested since they were all around to live during TWC's glory days.

 

Sorry for being so long-winded.  I tend to be that way more often than not.  It's my detailed nature at work once again.

 

Thanks for letting me share!

 

 

--->Edit:  After doing some online research I was able to find the names of some of the other mets I referred to above; Dennis Smith and Rich Johnson were the Tri-State Weather mets that day.  I also met Vivian Brown and Colleen Wine but didn't tape them. 

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Well, this news is fascinating to me.  Unfortunately, I doubt Comcast (my TV provider) is going to be adding them to their lineup any time soon.  From my perspective, having been around to witness the launch of TWC back in August of 1982, I am excited to learn of a new 24/7 weather channel on cable.  I rarely watch TWC anymore and haven't for quite a few years.  When they dropped their 24/7 weather programming format it was the beginning of the end for those of us who were TWC loyalists, such as myself.  I realize that as technology evolved and the internet came on the scene in the early to mid 90's there was increasing access to other forms of 24/7 weather info.  So, from purely a business perspective I guess I can see how the revenue stream was slowly beginning to dry up as many viewers sought out real-time weather info online. 

 

Regardless of how you feel about Accu-Weather, I am actually excited about them launching an all-weather cable channel.  I just hope that they stick to their original proposed format and don't succumb to reality programming.

 

While I reminisce about the glory days of TWC I wanted to let you guys know that 20 years ago next week, the week of the all-time record lows of Jan '94, my business partner and I flew down to Atlanta to visit the Weather Channel.  My business was discussing selling the real-time weather data from my NJ meso-net to be integrated with their "Tri-State Weather" segment that only aired locally in the NY/NJ/CT markets at the top and bottom of each hour during the daytime and also on weekends.  I spent the entire day at TWC which was literally the date of the -22F record in MDT.  I was so upset that I could not be at my home in north Jersey to witness the coldest temps I had ever recorded on my weather station.  But, I spent most of the day videotaping segments of the live TWC broadcasts.  I recorded some of the behind-the-scene mets like Stu Ostro.  I interviewed Jim Cantore (who had a full head of hair back then!).  I recorded several other mets doing their live on-air broadcasting.  Declan Cannon and his wife, Bonnie McClaughlin.  Several others who, after 20 years, their names escape me.  But, they were all original on-air mets from the early beginnings of TWC.  It was a very memorable day in my life, to say the least.  So, long gone are those days forever at TWC, but maybe Accu-Weather can bring back some of the 24/7 analysis that we all here love so much.  While I would love to share this video with all of you, at the moment I can't because the video tape was recorded on 8mm cassettes, and I have never digitally reproduced it thus far.  I will let you all know if and when I am able to have the video available for all of you if you are interested in seeing it.  I'm reasonably sure that those 40 and above would be the most interested since they were all around to live during TWC's glory days.

 

Sorry for being so long-winded.  I tend to be that way more often than not.  It's my detailed nature at work once again.

 

Thanks for letting me share!

very cool

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Well, this news is fascinating to me. Unfortunately, I doubt Comcast (my TV provider) is going to be adding them to their lineup any time soon. From my perspective, having been

around to witness the launch of TWC back in August of 1982, I am excited to learn of a new 24/7 weather channel on cable. I rarely watch TWC anymore and haven't for quite a few years. When they dropped their 24/7 weather programming format it was the beginning of the end for those of us who were TWC loyalists, such as myself. I realize that as technology evolved and the internet came on the scene in the early to mid 90's there was increasing access to other forms of 24/7 weather info. So, from purely a business

perspective I guess I can see how the revenue stream was slowly beginning to dry up as many viewers sought out real-time weather info online.

Regardless of how you feel about Accu-Weather, I am actually excited about them launching an all-weather cable channel. I just hope that they stick to their original proposed format and don't succumb to reality programming.

While I reminisce about the glory days of TWC I

wanted to let you guys know that 20 years ago next week, the week of the all-time record lows of Jan '94, my business partner and I flew down to Atlanta to visit the Weather Channel. My business was discussing selling the real-time weather data from my NJ meso-net to be integrated with their "Tri-State Weather" segment that only aired

locally in the NY/NJ/CT markets at the top and bottom of each hour during the daytime and also on weekends. I spent the entire day at TWC which was literally the date of the -22F record in MDT. I was so upset that I could not be at my home in north Jersey to witness the coldest temps I had ever recorded on my weather station. But, I spent most of the day videotaping segments of the live TWC broadcasts. I recorded some of the behind-the-scene mets like Stu Ostro. I interviewed Jim Cantore (who had a full head of hair back then!). I recorded several other mets doing their live on-air broadcasting. Declan Cannon and his wife, Bonnie McLaughlin. Several others who, after 20 years, their names escape me. But, they were all original on-air mets from the early beginnings of TWC. It was a very memorable day in my life, to say the least. So,

long gone are those days forever at TWC, but maybe Accu-Weather can bring back some of the 24/7 analysis that we all here love so much. While I would love to share this video with all of you, at the moment I can't because the video tape was recorded on 8mm cassettes, and I have never digitally reproduced it thus far. I will let you all know if and when I am able to have the video available for all of you if you are interested in seeing it. I'm reasonably sure that those 40 and above would be the most interested since they

were all around to live during TWC's glory days.

Sorry for being so long-winded. I tend to be that way more often than not. It's my detailed nature at work once again.

Thanks for letting me share!

Great story...trying to recall some names here; Dennis Edwards, Rich Johnson, Marc Mancuso, who was that guy "from the greatest city in the world"? Mike Seidel...they were good times back then...

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Great story...trying to recall some names here; Dennis Edwards, Rich Johnson, Marc Mancuso, who was that guy "from the greatest city in the world"? Mike Seidel...they were good times back then...

 You almost remembered correctly...lol...it was Dennis Smith and Bruce Edwards.

 

I believe it was "the greatest city in the nation" by Bruce Edwards.  I had forgotten that line he always was touting.  I wouldn't have remembered the city though.  Sorry Cleveland fans.

 

>>I just remembered that what Bruce said rhymed.  It was "the best location in the nation".

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Snow scoreboard as of today:

 

MDT

 

January snowfall: 6.5

January average to date: 4.9

Departure from normal to date: 133%

Overall Jan average: 9.7

 

Seasonal snowfall: 15.7

Seasonal average to date: 10.8

Departure from normal to date: 145%

Seasonal average end of January: 15.6

 

UNV

 

January snowfall: 3.9

January average to date: 6.4

Departure from normal to date: 61%

Overall Jan average: 12.7

 

Seasonal snowfall: 19.0

Seasonal average to date: 16.6

Departure from normal to date: 115%

Seasonal average end of January: 22.9

 

IPT

 

January snowfall: 4.7

January average to date: 5.4

Departure from normal to date: 87%

Overall Jan average: 10.6

 

Seasonal snowfall: 21.0

Seasonal average to date: 14

Departure from normal to date: 150%

Seasonal average end of January: 19.2

 

It is pretty wild that all of us are solidly above average when it comes to the seasonal snow totals. Places like Philly are way above average aided by the super deform band back in December and the Jan 3rd snowstorm. Upstate NY is getting alot more love than the last couple seasons as well. I know it sure doesn't feel like it around here, and that lends to the pattern. With all the cold weather we have had so far this winter, we haven't had any big hitting storms other than our mid December event. Tack on the fact that we have had progressive cold shots that get bookended by brief warmups and cutters and that equates to a pattern that has been unfavorable for glacier building (ie the snowpack) thus far. This upcoming cold looks to have much more staying power with the massive western ridge (++PNA) that eventually goes into a -PNA/-EPO regime via the retrograde in that ridge (but still keeping the source region of the air masses out of Canada). That may be what we need to get a bigger storm in the continued absence of Atlantic blocking. 

 

When I worked there they were going to launch one, I was sworn to secrecy about it but the deal fell through. 

 

Nice to see the Ops Floor hasn't changed much since I used to roam there bugging mets for snow forecasts for Centre County looking for press release ideas. 

 

I guess AccuWeather had planned to announce their 24/7 weather channel later in the year but they expedited the announcement due to the ongoing thing going on between The Weather Channel and DirecTV. I share maytowns sentiment in hoping that they stick to the weather and not have the overdramaticized/reality type theme that TWC and the network news channels make it these days. Speaking of Accuwx, I'm applying for a forecaster opening that just came up there.

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It is pretty wild that all of us are solidly above average when it comes to the seasonal snow totals. Places like Philly are way above average aided by the super deform band back in December and the Jan 3rd snowstorm. Upstate NY is getting alot more love than the last couple seasons as well. I know it sure doesn't feel like it around here, and that lends to the pattern. With all the cold weather we have had so far this winter, we haven't had any big hitting storms other than our mid December event. Tack on the fact that we have had progressive cold shots that get bookended by brief warmups and cutters and that equates to a pattern that has been unfavorable for glacier building (ie the snowpack) thus far. This upcoming cold looks to have much more staying power with the massive western ridge (++PNA) that eventually goes into a -PNA/-EPO regime via the retrograde in that ridge (but still keeping the source region of the air masses out of Canada). That may be what we need to get a bigger storm in the continued absence of Atlantic blocking. 

 

 

I guess AccuWeather had planned to announce their 24/7 weather channel later in the year but they expedited the announcement due to the ongoing thing going on between The Weather Channel and DirecTV. I share maytowns sentiment in hoping that they stick to the weather and not have the overdramaticized/reality type theme that TWC and the network news channels make it these days. Speaking of Accuwx, I'm applying for a forecaster opening that just came up there.

Good luck on the application!

 

The battle here is not just on the TV airwaves. The Weather Channel is in the TV biz like McDonald's is in the burger business; that's just one of the offerings. Just like a more accurate description of Micky D's is that they are a fast food restaurant, TWC is more accurately described as a media company. TWC and AccuWeather are in online, in newspapers (weather pages), mobile, and radio. What's interesting to me is TWC was a TV channel that became a media company and AccuWeather was a media company that is adding a TV channel to their media offerings, backwards.

 

It will be interesting to see how they do and what they do. Thing is, most people want to know the forecast rather quickly, and generally don't want a long wait. The big exception is live coverage of major weather events, which actually TWC does pretty well. Interesting to see what AccuWeather does there, it's generally a big ratings time when a big hurricane or blizzard strikes.

 

They also need to have a household name. Jim Cantore is really important to TWC, and it would be a big coup for AccuWeather to develop one of their own.

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 The best clipper out of clipper fest 2014 the next several days appears at the moment to be the one progged for Friday night/Saturday morning as the GFS/NAM/SREF have a bit of a coastal low development and perhaps a deform band delivering some snowfall somewhere in C-PA.

 

 

I suppose Mount Holly picked up on that idea as they have an advisory for the early morning for a chance of a period of heavy snow with 1-2 inch rates for a hour or two...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ350 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2014CARBON-MONROE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG350 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO10 AM EST SATURDAY...* LOCATIONS...THE CARBON AND MONROE COUNTY REGION OF THE POCONOS.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 4 INCH  AMOUNT POSSIBLE.* TIMING...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD FALL DURING A ONE OR TWO HOUR  PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2 AM AND 6 AM SATURDAY. SNOW WILL  PROBABLY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL  RATES.
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I suppose Mount Holly picked up on that idea as they have an advisory for the early morning for a chance of a period of heavy snow with 1-2 inch rates for a hour or two...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ350 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2014CARBON-MONROE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG350 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO10 AM EST SATURDAY...* LOCATIONS...THE CARBON AND MONROE COUNTY REGION OF THE POCONOS.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 4 INCH  AMOUNT POSSIBLE.* TIMING...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD FALL DURING A ONE OR TWO HOUR  PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2 AM AND 6 AM SATURDAY. SNOW WILL  PROBABLY BE HEAVY FOR A TIME WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL  RATES.

06 NAM went a little nutty back here, put down .32 of high-ratio qpf. Probably another night where I feel bad for the stray trucker that goes past our house and turns right to go up Port Matilda mountain when I'm out walking the dog. You likely know what I mean, although that one's a lot harder to deal with going down than coming up. 

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