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Central PA & The Fringes - January 2014 Pt II


PennMan

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Still sitting at 37° in Bellefonte.  I had hoped that the warmth and rain would get rid of the nasty layer of ice covering the entire parking area, but no luck.  Still have most of our snow and ice hanging around.

 

Same here, only 35.5 down here. We'll likely see the temperature ramp up several degrees for a time this evening when the front passes and has some of the gusty winds mix some of the warmer air aloft down. But once again, another largely thwarted warm up in the central regions and immediately off the Allegheny front in particular. 

 

Looking like Monday could be a better chance for a more pronounced warm up in advance of the next frontal system that will send us back to more wintry temps for the rest of the week. Appears that the Euro has given up on running a stronger wave up this frontal boundary Tuesday and more in line with other guidance bringing just some showers/light rain with a basic frontal passage. A clipper system has been showing up Wednesday beyond the front on most guidance at varying degrees. Todays Euro redevelops it on the Delmarva and could be supportive of at least a general light snowfall. Pattern beyond looks to be northern branch heavy (could be a few clipper chances) with development of the big +PNA ridge but quiet looking southern branch. 

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The roads have become absolutely awful driving back and forth from Hershey to king of Prussia area with huge tire eating teeth filling loosening potholes.

Yes...the roads are getting hammered in these parts...numerous potholes in many unsuspecting places.

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CarlislePaWx, on 07 Jan 2014 - 11:09 AM, said:snapback.png

Uh oh.  Maybe my memory is beginning to fade also? lol.  Maybe djr5001 could go back and check both 12/25/80 and 12/25/83 and tell us which date it was??  The reason I think it was 1980 is because I was not yet in Optometry school, which began Aug 1982.  We'll have to see.

 

As for here this morning, I dropped to -2.4 degrees on one of my digital (lab grade) thermometers and to -2.7 on another one, and to -2.3 on yet a third one.  LOL  I've got more thermometers than just those 3.  I'm a bit of a thermometer fanatic actually.  I will go with my -2.4F as my official low.  Also, my dew point did drop to -15.8 degrees overnight so that broke my all-time lowest observed dew point by one degree.

 

 

djr5001 replied:

 

both of those dates had similar conditions... but temperature and wind chill was lower in 1983 during the early morning hours... Here are two quick links for MDT data... CXY is similar

 

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

_______________________________________________________________________________________

 

Hi djr...

 

Thanks so much for getting the data to me.  I actually only just today discovered that you had replied to my original post.  The one thing I didn't mention in my first post was that back in 1980 (and 1983) I was living in northern NJ, not PA.  Well, after going back to the archives and reviewing the data from both 1980 and 1983 for Christmas day, it turns out that both Maytown and myself were correct!  In 1980 the day started off around 15 degrees and then dropped all the way to zero with incredible wind chills due to gusting winds of over 40mph.  On that date the temperature dropped to Zero, at Newark Airport (KEWR).  The temp remained in the single digits for the high temp that afternoon.  Newark only got up to six degrees.  At my home roughly 15 miles west of KEWR my high temp was only +4F, which was the coldest afternoon high temp I ever have seen either in NJ or here in PA.  A quick review of that same date out here in Harrisburg shows that while the temp also dropped to near Zero in the morning, the afternoon temp rose to above 10 degrees.

 

Then, reviewing 1983.  Again, both locations had somewhat similar conditions, however, as you already said, the intensity of the cold was greater out here vs. at KEWR.  For some reason I had totally forgotten about Christmas 1983 being like 1980.  LOL

 

So, thanks for the link to that data.  It's interesting jogging my memory back over 30 years now.  So, other than Jan 19, 1994 which produced the lowest afternoon high temperature, there haven't been too many other dates with single-digit highs around these parts since 1980.  And this past week was actually pretty historic in itself.  My high reached 10.3 degrees during the mid afternoon.  I was hoping it would not go above 9 degrees, but I guess I can accept 10 degrees.  I won't falsify my pws data!  lol.

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Still sitting at 37° in Bellefonte.  I had hoped that the warmth and rain would get rid of the nasty layer of ice covering the entire parking area, but no luck.  Still have most of our snow and ice hanging around.

It's somewhat remarkable how different things can be in Bellefonte compared to State College.  By that time Saturday, probably because it was a good eight or nine degrees warmer here, all the snow and ice had disappeared save for some remnants of the larger parking-lot piles.  

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Despite my love of snow and cold weather, I have been getting a serious bout of spring fever.  Can't wait to get the tomato seeds started soon!

 

 

You and I both. I find myself perusing the seed sites more often lately.

Already ordered my seeds. 

 

If anyone is interested, this is what I have, includes this year's orders: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsPkYq-Id430dEJTbmphQnd0XzhiLUUzaWtiQ1paNHc&usp=drive_web If you pm me with an address, I can send any seeds you are interested in trying to you. 

 

I have to say, when I am starting seeds indoors in mid-March and it's snowing outside the window, it feels good in an odd way. 

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Despite my love of snow and cold weather, I have been getting a serious bout of spring fever.  Can't wait to get the tomato seeds started soon!

 

 

You and I both. I find myself perusing the seed sites more often lately.

 

 

Already ordered my seeds. 

 

If anyone is interested, this is what I have, includes this year's orders: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsPkYq-Id430dEJTbmphQnd0XzhiLUUzaWtiQ1paNHc&usp=drive_web If you pm me with an address, I can send any seeds you are interested in trying to you. 

 

I have to say, when I am starting seeds indoors in mid-March and it's snowing outside the window, it feels good in an odd way. 

Seems to be a common theme. Yesterday while watching football i was looking at sites and started planning my garden, as my wife and daughter thought i was a little nuts.

 

I have never started my plants from seeds, maybe i should start this year.

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Already ordered my seeds. 

 

If anyone is interested, this is what I have, includes this year's orders: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsPkYq-Id430dEJTbmphQnd0XzhiLUUzaWtiQ1paNHc&usp=drive_web If you pm me with an address, I can send any seeds you are interested in trying to you. 

 

I have to say, when I am starting seeds indoors in mid-March and it's snowing outside the window, it feels good in an odd way. 

 

I might have to take you up on that Jamie, thanks for the offer. I've got a question regarding butternut squash, but I'll make a 2014 Lawn and Garden thread and post it in there to keep this thread clean.

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CarlislePaWx, on 07 Jan 2014 - 11:09 AM, said:snapback.png

 

 

djr5001 replied:

 

both of those dates had similar conditions... but temperature and wind chill was lower in 1983 during the early morning hours... Here are two quick links for MDT data... CXY is similar

 

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

_______________________________________________________________________________________

 

Hi djr...

 

Thanks so much for getting the data to me.  I actually only just today discovered that you had replied to my original post.  The one thing I didn't mention in my first post was that back in 1980 (and 1983) I was living in northern NJ, not PA.  Well, after going back to the archives and reviewing the data from both 1980 and 1983 for Christmas day, it turns out that both Maytown and myself were correct!  In 1980 the day started off around 15 degrees and then dropped all the way to zero with incredible wind chills due to gusting winds of over 40mph.  On that date the temperature dropped to Zero, at Newark Airport (KEWR).  The temp remained in the single digits for the high temp that afternoon.  Newark only got up to six degrees.  At my home roughly 15 miles west of KEWR my high temp was only +4F, which was the coldest afternoon high temp I ever have seen either in NJ or here in PA.  A quick review of that same date out here in Harrisburg shows that while the temp also dropped to near Zero in the morning, the afternoon temp rose to above 10 degrees.

 

Then, reviewing 1983.  Again, both locations had somewhat similar conditions, however, as you already said, the intensity of the cold was greater out here vs. at KEWR.  For some reason I had totally forgotten about Christmas 1983 being like 1980.  LOL

 

So, thanks for the link to that data.  It's interesting jogging my memory back over 30 years now.  So, other than Jan 19, 1994 which produced the lowest afternoon high temperature, there haven't been too many other dates with single-digit highs around these parts since 1980.  And this past week was actually pretty historic in itself.  My high reached 10.3 degrees during the mid afternoon.  I was hoping it would not go above 9 degrees, but I guess I can accept 10 degrees.  I won't falsify my pws data!  lol.

in looking back through the data for January, I couldnt believe how few days there were for Harrisburgh with highs below 20 degrees let alone 10!!  I had a few people tell me last week was cold but wasn't overly impressive... then I recited the statistics that it was the coldest low and high we had seen in 18 and 20 years and they were a little more impressed lol...

 

yes with Harrisburg data the urban heat island and influences from the river could possibly throw off the historic numbers somewhat... but in the database I have ever so slowly been working on I have the following for prior to 2014:

 

For lowest daytime highs since 1996 for December - only December 14, 2005 (19 degrees) and December 20, 2004 (also 19 degrees) were below the 20 degree mark

 

For lowest low temps since 1996 for December - there have been 4 nights with a low below 10 December 14, 2005 (4 degrees), December 20, 2004 (7 degrees), December 7, 2002 (9 degrees), and December 21, 2000 (9 degrees)

 

With January being climatological peak cold this was expected... Looking at February for lowest highs since 1996 there were 6 days below 20 degrees - February 5&6, 2007 (16 and 19 degrees), February 16, 2003 (17 degrees), and February 3-5, 1996 (18, 15, and 16 degrees)

 

For lowest low temperatures since 1996 for February - there have been 14 readings below 10 degrees - not going to list all of them but hit 3 degrees on groundhog day in 2004 and the stretch of Feb 4-6, 1996 had lows of 7, 2, and -1.  The -1 was the last time official low has been below 0.

 

Now for January - there has been 20 days in the 20 years from 1994-2013 where the high was less than 20 degrees - averages to one occurance per year.  In 1994 there were 5 occurances during that brutal cold week.  For the remaining 15 days, the coldest of those below 20 degree highs was 15 on January 16, 2009!  January 15-21, 1994 had highs of 10, 12, 21, 26, -1, 13, 19. 

 

Lows in January below 10 are much more common, but last time the low was 0 was in 1996 and below 0 was 1994.

 

So while it really isn't that uncommon for lows to fall into single digits, the 0 degree mark is rare here.  While these nights do tend to get cold, whether influenced by heat island or river temperature again, daytime highs are hard to keep below 15 degrees let alone the high of 10 we had last week.

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Sneaky coastal on the Euro today around hour 114-126 on the front end of a reinforcing shot of cold air for the weekend. Delivers a light to moderate snowfall with plenty of cold around. The highly amplified pattern certainly argues for some kind of weather response on the east coast with a monster +PNA developing this week and pretty decent positioning of the ridge axis. The big amplification via that teleconnection is important, since the Atlantic continues to be uncooperative and we have a fairly quiet southern stream. Whether it happens remains to be seen, as today's Euro is the first time i've seen any model suggest any kind of a bigger event in this timeframe.

 

This does seem to be the kind of pattern where you might not see the smaller scale light-moderate events show up with any consistency until a few days out. I'd keep an eye on Tues night into Wednesday as well for another possible light snowfall.  One thing for sure is that it does appear that it will generally remain cold for at least the next couple weeks in spite of what the GFS/GEFS had been trying to pull several days ago. 

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Sneaky coastal on the Euro today around hour 114-126 on the front end of a reinforcing shot of cold air for the weekend. Delivers a light to moderate snowfall with plenty of cold around. The highly amplified pattern certainly argues for some kind of weather response on the east coast with a monster +PNA developing this week and pretty decent positioning of the ridge axis. The big amplification via that teleconnection is important, since the Atlantic continues to be uncooperative and we have a fairly quiet southern stream. Whether it happens remains to be seen, as today's Euro is the first time i've seen any model suggest any kind of a bigger event in this timeframe.

 

This does seem to be the kind of pattern where you might not see the smaller scale light-moderate events show up with any consistency until a few days out. I'd keep an eye on Tues night into Wednesday as well for another possible light snowfall.  One thing for sure is that it does appear that it will generally remain cold for at least the next couple weeks in spite of what the GFS/GEFS had been trying to pull several days ago. 

Yeah, that warmup on the GEFS went away quick. 

 

The 12Z had several shots at snow on it as well.

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