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Central PA & The Fringes - January 2014 Pt II


PennMan

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12Z GFS suddenly showing two minor snow chances next Tuesday and Wednesday with much colder conditions (relative to the thaw this weekend which now looks to last only 3 days).  Wed event would make DT quite happy I'm sure as it shows a pretty decent snow event along I-95 from Richmond north through NYC and on up into New England).  Quite interesting that most of the long-term warmth from yesterday's runs is gone now.

 

Like others have stated about the extreme cold...I've had my fill of it for this winter.  Teens is plenty cold from now on for me.  I want more snow just because it would be nice to have a "normal" season here in the LSV of between 30 - 35".  I'm only about 1/3rd of the way there so far.

Adam Moyer, who is a great met and doesn't care much for cold and snow so he's not wishcasting, has this on his Twitter stream: https://twitter.com/AdamPHLWx

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I have a few inches. All of it disappeared during the warmup then we got 3-4". Remarkable how much it hung around, shows how cold it was. I doubt it's still there after tomorrow.

Should be gone except for piles.  I've been shoveling my back sidewalk onto the same small pile every storm...had at least some remnant of a pile there now since 11/26.

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He is just doing what he does best... will mention possibility of something in long range if there is support for somewhat of a possibility... if the next several model runs do not continue to support it he won't mention it again... if they do start to show something he will continue to discuss it and remind everyone he was the first to mention it... just like today he mentioned once last week that there was potential for snow or ice late this week he is taking credit this morning for calling it a week ago

Jb is useless because he is obsessed with being first when being accurate is way more important then forecasting a storm 10 days out instead of 7. No real preparations or changes get made outside 72 hours from a storm so his extra lead time is worthless plus look at the cost. He jumps on so many storm threats that's its meaningless. He forecasts some historic blizzard about 10 times a year then after 50 busts when one finally happens he acts like he nailed it. He is just noise at this point.
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Speaking of the Euro...what's the latest update on next week's wx?  Any snow storms?

I'm thinking the Wed thing is a 1-3/2-4 type thing on the Euro with more qpf down your way.

 

UNV

WED 12Z 15-JAN  -1.8    -4.7    1008      88      96    0.01     535     529    WED 18Z 15-JAN   0.6    -4.7    1005      87      99    0.08     532     527    THU 00Z 16-JAN  -0.6    -6.9    1005      90      97    0.20     527     523    THU 06Z 16-JAN  -2.3    -8.5    1007      87      94    0.05     526     520    THU 12Z 16-JAN  -6.8   -10.5    1012      73      27    0.02     533     523   

IPT

WED 12Z 15-JAN  -1.9    -5.0    1008      96      95    0.01     536     529    WED 18Z 15-JAN   0.6    -5.3    1006      89     100    0.03     533     528    THU 00Z 16-JAN  -0.8    -5.5    1004      98     100    0.24     529     525    THU 06Z 16-JAN  -1.6    -6.5    1005      90      91    0.14     526     522    THU 12Z 16-JAN  -5.6   -10.4    1010      77      53    0.01     530     522

MDT

WED 18Z 15-JAN   3.8    -3.0    1005      76     100    0.02     535     530    THU 00Z 16-JAN   0.6    -5.7    1004      98      99    0.30     529     525    THU 06Z 16-JAN  -1.8    -6.4    1006      80      44    0.08     526     521    THU 12Z 16-JAN  -3.0    -8.9    1011      72      61    0.03     531     522 
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Cold air damming? Or something completely different? At the very least I've noticed that nearly every "warmup" this winter has been slow to arrive in the Harrisburg area. Last weekend's ZR lasted longer than modeled as well.

 

My friend, the Tamaqua Area Weatherman, mentioned that. He's noticed, too, the the CAD signature seems quite strong this year as opposed to other years.

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I think it's due to the overall pattern, but not sure exactly why. Maybe one of our red-taggers can explain. But you picked up on something, seems to be more of these this yeaer. 

 

It varies from year to year, but this year the CAD seems to be much stronger and more persistant than other years.

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